The world's leading economists spent most of 2022 convincing themselves that, if the global economy was not already in a recession, it was about to fall into one. But with the year 2022 end, the global slump has been postponed to the present 2023.
Clearly, the reports that the United States was in recession during the first half of 2022 were premature. Owing to the rapid interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks, there is something like a 50% chance of a recession in 2023 and a 75% chance of it happening at some point during the next two years.
