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Irish Mirror
Irish Mirror
National
Anita McSorley

Ireland to be hotter than city of love on Valentine’s Day - as fears grow over major weather change

Lovers will be getting hot under the collar as temperatures spike for Valentine’s Day.

Ireland will be hotter than 12C Paris - known as the City of Love - as the mercury climbs well above average.

Met Eireann is forecasting highs of 15C tomorrow, adding: “Tuesday will be mild for the time of year”.

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Its full forecast reads: “Tuesday will be mild for the time of year. Blustery southerly winds will persist through the day with any overnight or early morning rain soon clearing, to allow a mix of cloud and sunny spells for the rest of the day. Highest temperatures of 11C to 14C or 15C in fresh and gusty southerly winds.

“Mostly dry to start on Tuesday night with a few clear spells in the east, although outbreaks of rain will gradually push in from the west, extending across the country by morning with clear spells and a few isolated showers following from the west. Lowest temperatures of 4C to 7C degrees as fresh southerly winds veering westerly and moderating as the rain passes.”

The meteorological service says the double digit temperatures will continue for the rest of the week - however a big weather change could be on the way towards the end of the month.

Weather models show that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is now ‘likely’ to take place.

This can lead to cold, dry weather coming into the north of Europe and across Ireland.

Forecasters have pinpointed the end of February into the start of March as the date Ireland would be impacted by the weather phenomenon - but have cautioned that its exact impacts are still uncertain this far out.

In 2018, it was the occurrence of an SSW event that triggered the ‘Beast from the East’ that brought the country to a standstill - while the following year, there was another SSW event that had little impact on Ireland’s weather.

Independent Irish forecaster Alan O’Reilly is monitoring the possibility of an SSW event and how it may affect Ireland.

Sharing weather models on his popular Carlow Weather social media accounts, he wrote: “Latest weather models showing risk of SSW increasing but remember any impacts on our weather are uncertain and if it does impact our weather it would likely be towards the end of this month or early into March.”

In an update, he continued: “Models still showing SSW event likely but I can’t stress this enough, it does not mean we will see a beast from the East. It can have very little impact on our weather, it’s wait and see. Models do show increased chance of blocked and possibly cooler weather around start of March.

“Latest ECMWF update shows full agreement on the model for reversal of winds and SSW. So an SSW will happen we know that now but what we don’t know is the impact on our weather. That is wait and see.”

It comes as the UK’s Met Office published a new blog post and issued a weather alert.

They said: “The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February.

“A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK [and Ireland], with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas of the continent. However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs.”

Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting, also pinpointed late February and March as the exact date Ireland would see any impacts from a SSW.

He said: “There is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring. Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK [and Ireland] weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”

Meanwhile, Met Eireann’s current extended range forecast for February suggests the most likely scenario is for broadly changeable weather with rain and gusts at times.

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