Ireland faces weeks of coalition talks before it gets a new government, as the country’s two major center-right parties work to form a stable administration.
With all but a handful of seats filled in the 174-seat legislature on Monday after three days of counting election ballots, Fianna Fail had won 46 seats and Fine Gael 38. The two parties, who have governed in coalition since 2020, look set to fall just short of the 88 needed for a majority without third-party support.
“The people have spoken, let us now get on with the work,” said Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin.
Left-of-center party Sinn Fein won at least 37 seats in Friday's election but is unlikely to be part of the next government. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have a longstanding refusal to work with Sinn Fein, partly because of its historic ties with the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.
“The outcome of the election is now clear. The numbers are there for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to form a government together," said Sinn Fein lawmaker Eoin Ó Broin. He said that would be “the worst possible outcome for the people of the country.”
Longtime rivals with origins on opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael formed an alliance after the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat. The two parties took it in turns to hold the post of premier, for about two years each. This time, Fianna Fail’s bigger seat tally means its Martin looks likely to become prime minister, or taoiseach, rather than Simon Harris of Fine Gael.
Fianna Fail’s deputy leader, Jack Chambers, said coalition talks would require “time and space,” and it’s unlikely there will be a new government before Christmas.
Ireland has proved a partial exception to the anti-incumbent mood in elections around the world. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, which have dominated Irish politics for a century, remain in the driving seat, though their combined share of the vote has declined to just over 40%.
They will need support to command a majority in parliament, and could turn to the Social Democrats and the Irish Labour Party, who both increased their seat totals, or to independent lawmakers.
The new government will face huge pressure to ease rising homelessness, driven by soaring rents and property prices, and to better absorb a growing number of asylum-seekers.
The cost of living — especially Ireland’s acute housing crisis — was a dominant topic in the election campaign, and immigration has become an emotive and challenging issue in a country of 5.4 million people long defined by emigration.
A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school just over a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, sparked the worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades.
For all the focus on migration, anti-immigration independents made few breakthroughs. Ireland does not have a significant far-right party to capitalize on the issue.
