Ireland is facing up to 100 times more extreme weather events like the current heatwave as a result of the climate crisis, says a Maynooth University expert.
The National Directorate for Fire & Emergency Management Crisis Management Team lept to action last week in anticipation of the country reaching its highest recorded temperature in a century - 33C in Dublin. Water ran low in Cork, Galway, Waterford, Donegal and Kildare.
And while the country escaped the ‘red warning’ for extreme heat in England and blazes that swept across Europe, Professor John Sweeney at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS) at MU says “only when we stop the concentrations of greenhouse gases - the global temperature will stabilise”.
Read More: Ireland records hottest temperature in more than a century
“We are seeing these kinds of events more frequently and in a more severe fashion than we did before,” he added.
“This is not unexpected for climate people. It’s something that’s been forecast for a long time.
“In the past, I would have had to adopt the standard answer of saying we can’t attribute an individual extreme, be it heat, be it cold to climate change because it hadn’t occurred in the past and was hard to say.
“But there have been very significant advances in climate science in the last few years.
“One is called attribution where we can run climate models, not once but several hundred times in the same period.
“We can run them with greenhouse gas loadings in the atmosphere which reflect pre-industrial periods and greenhouse gas loadings that reflect the current levels.
“The figures are quite alarming.
“They suggest extreme events are between 10 and 100 times more likely as a consequence of what we’ve put into the atmosphere.
“It’s not in any doubt any more and they are becoming more severe.”
For Ireland, he says it means “heavier rain and more intense downpours” in winter.
“We have a winter problem and in summer the drier conditions will mean we will likely have water supply problems in the eastern part of the island in cities like Belfast, Dublin and Cork.
“In Belfast there is a great reliance on one reservoir as well.
“We need to use protective measures to ensure cities are not vulnerable to increased water supplies in a situation where there will be a lot of competition from commercial supply and agriculture.”
Irish Water warned customers today that low reservoirs in Donegal and Kildare were causing supply issues, while restrictions were placed on areas of Galway, Waterford and Cork.
Green Party MEP Grace O’Sullivan says the public need to understand “there will be a price to pay” for climate change.
She added: “In Ireland €2.5bn goes to indirect subsidies and preferential tax treatment to support fossil fuel activities in Ireland.
“There’s a further €1.6bn supporting other potentially environmentally damaging activities for example subsidising areas in agriculture and transport.
“Financing and directing subsidies into fossil industries and methods that are accelerating climate change is a real problem that if we want to do something really powerful in terms of turning the tide on climate then we have to make sure we redirect these subsidies, particularly the ones that have gone into fossil fuels, into clean wind, solar energy and clean mechanisms that generate the energy we need.
“We have to take every measure possible.”
In relation to the latest heatwave, Ms O’Sullivan has urged people to keep themselves safe but she has called on everyone to “ratchet up the pressure on leaders to make sure we take the necessary steps and not be climate complacent”.
“Think of your children, think of your families.
“This is where we are, the evidence is stacking up and we are seeing the extremes across Europe now,” she added.
“If we don’t turn things around now then we will face a huge crisis come 2030.”
Her party colleague and fellow MEP, Ciarán Cuffe, said: “We have seen the highest temperature recorded in Ireland in over a century. “The science is clear – this is no coincidence: climate change is our present, not our future.
“We urgently need to adapt to this new reality to save lives and mitigate the worst impacts of global warming. Most Irish homes and buildings are not built to withstand extreme temperatures like those we are seeing this week, for example.
“We should be accelerating renovations, with particular support for vulnerable households, as well as diverting skills, supplies, and training resources to this sector.
“Lives and livelihoods will be saved if we take urgent action now.”
The Department for Housing says the “National Directorate for Fire & Emergency Management (NDFEM) Crisis Management Team have been working with Met Éireann since last week, anticipating forecasted high temperatures over the weekend and early this week”.
Both they and Professor Sweeney believe “weather patterns should see a gradual return to more seasonal conditions from later tomorrow, with temperatures cooler than previous nights - lowest temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees tomorrow night”.
Tanaiste Leo Varadker shared pictures of he and his partner enjoying the heatwave by ‘officially declaring BBQ season open’.
Meanwhile there has been speculation both he and Taoiseach Micheal Martin might backtrack on Programme for Government climate pledges, while the agricultural lobbying is ramping up calls for lower emissions ceilings than other sectors.
A spokesperson for the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications said: “It was never expected that there would be immediate agreement on setting emissions targets; negotiation has always been seen as an ongoing process.
“It is clear from all sectors that they are going to find it challenging to meet the necessary sectoral ceilings, to ensure that Ireland meets its economy-wide target.
“Sectoral emissions targets across the economy are interrelated. If one sector does not meet its required target it will have to be made up for in other sectors of the economy.
“Once the sectoral emission ceilings receive Government approval, details will be published.”
Aggregate emissions from all sectors for the first carbon budget have to total 295 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent which requires an average of a 4.8% reduction in emissions each year between 2021 and 2025.
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