New weather maps show the exact moment a brutal cold blast could hit Ireland.
Meteorologists are monitoring a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which is now underway.
The phenomenon, which is common in winter months, can lead to cold, dry weather coming into the north of Europe and across Ireland. However, how it will impact Ireland’s weather is currently uncertain.
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In 2018, it was an SSW event that caused the ‘Beast from the East’ that left Ireland covered in deep snow - while the following year, there was another SSW event that had little impact on Ireland’s weather.
Some long-range weather maps, which are subject to change this far out, show Ireland engulfed by an Arctic blast in early March.
Irish weather expert Alan O’Reilly has been monitoring the latest trends. He shared a weather model showing bitterly cold weather over Ireland on March 8.
Posting on his popular Carlow Weather social media accounts, he wrote: “Weather models now increasing the risk of a cold snap next week. Details a little uncertain but likely to see much cooler air early next week. A cool start to Spring very possible.”
It comes after Met Eireann issued an update on the SSW. It said: “A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is on-going, which adds a high degree of uncertainty to the overall forecast. Given that caveat, the overall signal from the seasonal models for Ireland during spring (March, April, May), is for slightly above average temperatures with average rainfall. March, and possibly the beginning of April, are likely to be cooler and drier than average, with a transition to warmer and wetter conditions for May.”
Meanwhile, the UK’s Met Office published a blog post earlier this month and issued a weather alert.
It said: “The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February.
“A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK [and Ireland], with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas of the continent. However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs.”
Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting, also pinpointed late February and March as the exact date Ireland would see any impacts from a SSW. He said: “There is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring. Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK [and Ireland] weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
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