The rest may as well go home. The title is Ireland’s.
So say the bookies, who are offering an Ireland championship at a little better than 10-1 on, which equates to a 90% likelihood. That is quite the statement, given there are three rounds (out of five) still to play, including a trip for Ireland to the home of the side that took bronze at the World Cup only a few months ago.
Ireland are two wins from two, going into round three, but then so are England. You can get the latter at 10-1, which equates to less than a 10% chance. An Ireland grand slam is rated 2-1 on, or 67% likely.
Those who know their rugby will rightly point out that England’s bronze medal was not a fair reflection of the pecking order in international rugby – and their two wins so far in the Six Nations have hardly been impressive. Ireland, on the other hand, were pipped in one of the epic quarter-finals of the World Cup and they fairly dismantled France in Marseille in round one of the championship, before brushing aside an Italy team that took England to the brink and outscored them three tries to two.
It says something, all the same, about Ireland’s standing in the game that such cold, dead-eyed commentators as the bookmakers have them as all but definite to prevail. There is a certainty about Ireland that their closest challengers in the north, France, still lack, for all their brilliance.
Andy Farrell, Ireland’s coach, might serve as the embodiment of his team. In his pomp he could pretty much do anything on a rugby field, a hard man and a footballer. Nowadays, it is as if he breathes his understated charisma throughout the team. An air of confidence is indeed the result, however much he may keep them on their toes.
Which is all the more impressive, given the gaping hole where Johnny Sexton once stood. If the mark of a player is the way he steps up on the big occasion, Jack Crowley’s first outing as successor to Sexton suggested Ireland will not miss a beat as they venture into a future without the great man.
Crowley’s performance in that bonus-point win against France on the opening weekend was masterful, orchestrating proceedings with confidence and knocking over conversions from every angle. Against Italy in Dublin the dynamic was totally different. He missed a few kicks but that is OK when it does not matter. He scored his first Test try instead, and a rejigged Ireland team made hay from there.
Powerful lock Posolo Tuilagi will make his first Test start for France in Sunday's Six Nations match against Italy.
The Samoa-born Tuilagi came off the bench during France's 38-17 loss to defending champion Ireland and in the controversial 20-16 win in Scotland. He lines up alongside Cameron Woki in Lille, with Paul Gabrillagues dropping out of the matchday 23.
The 19-year-old Tuilagi helped France win the Under-20 World Cup last year and forwards coach Laurent Sempéré said he is ready to start.
“Posolo was among the players who energised the team [against Scotland]," Sempéré said. “The way he has played in training and what he's done when he's come on have earned him a start.”
Tuilagi comes from a family steeped in rugby tradition. His father Henry Tuilagi played for Samoa at flanker or No. 8 and his uncle Manu Tuilagi has scored 20 tries for England since his debut in 2011.
With France captain Grégory Alldritt nursing a left thigh injury, Francois Cros switches from flanker to take his place at No. 8 and Paul Boudehent comes in at flanker, while fellow flanker Charles Ollivon takes the armband.
Italy coach Gonzalo Quesada has made six changes to his starting lineup from the 36-0 hammering at the hands of Ireland.
Inside centre Federico Mori starts for the first time in nearly two years, while it is the first time flanker Ross Vintcent and lock Riccardo Favretto have been named in the starting lineup for Italy.
Vintcent came off the bench against Ireland for his debut but Favretto made his only appearance for Italy in the 2021 Six Nations.
“I haven’t counted how many changes I made in the team compared to the match against Ireland,” Quesada said. “We’re adapting to Sunday’s match and dealing with some injuries. But the group is the same that has been working together for three weeks.”
France Ramos; Penaud, Fickou, Danty, Bielle-Biarrey; Jalibert, Lucu; Baille, Mauvaka, Atonio, Woki, Tuilagi, Boudehent, Ollivon (capt) Cros. Replacements Marchand, S Taofifenua, Aldegheri, R Taofifenua, Roumat, Abadie, Le Garrec, Moefana.
Italy Capuozzo; Menoncello, Brex, Mori, Ioane; Paolo Garbisi, Page-Relo; Fischetti, Nicotera, Zilocchi, Cannone, Favretto, Lamaro (capt), Vintcent. Replacements Lucchesi, Spagnolo, Ferrari, Canali, Zambonin, Zuliani, Varney, Marin.
For this weekend’s visit of Wales, they welcome back most of their first-choice team. Hugo Keenan, injured against Italy, does not make it, so another relatively unfamiliar face is thrown in at full-back. Ciaran Frawley, the utility back from Leinster, was named as one of three potential replacements for Sexton in Farrell’s original Six Nations squad. He will make his first Test start, at the age of 26, in a position he has played six times this season for Leinster.
Such adjustments are not considered much of a weakness for Wales to exploit. When a team is rated 90% likely to win an entire tournament, the bookies do not have much further to go when rating them for an individual match at home against a side nought from two. Wales are given a roughly 5% chance in this one, with a 23-point head start in the handicap market.
They hardly stride boldly into town. Rob Howley, back on the coaching panel, has described their best chance as to create chaos, while the head honcho himself, Warren Gatland, referred to Welsh rugby as “a sinking ship” only a couple of days ago.
One imagines the rhetoric in the visitors’ changing room will be a little more uplifting than that come Saturday afternoon. But there is no doubt these will not go down as glory days when the next chapters are written in Welsh rugby history, however much they made those bronze-medal winners work for their second win from two in the last round.
Sam Costelow returns at fly-half, having left with a neck injury in the first half of the opening match, when the score read 20-0 to the visiting Scots. Otherwise the team is the same as that which started at Twickenham a fortnight ago.
They impressed then, even if they could not stop England slow-stepping their way to another win. The challenge in Dublin will be of a different order.
