Iran's leaders are reportedly growing increasingly nervous about the actions of their proxy forces in the Middle East. Recent attacks carried out by these groups, including the killing of US troops and a near-miss on a Navy destroyer, have caught Iran off guard and raised concerns among their leadership, according to US intelligence sources.
One significant event that has caused alarm in Tehran is the drone attack in Jordan that killed three US service members. This incident is said to have served as a wake-up call for Iran, highlighting the lack of control they have over their various proxy groups operating in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. While Iran supports these groups by supplying them with weapons and funding, the level of loyalty and alignment with Iran varies greatly among them.
The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, in particular, have caused major concern for Iranian leaders. Their recent attack involving a cruise missile came dangerously close to hitting a US Navy destroyer, highlighting the potential disruption they can cause to global shipping and Iran's closest allies, such as China and India. This development has put pressure on Iran to rein in the Houthis and prevent further disruptions to the global economy.
The US government has formally assigned blame to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group comprising Iran-backed proxy forces, for the drone attack in Jordan. While the US has not directly attributed the attack to a specific group within the umbrella organization, it has vowed to respond in a complex and potentially long-term manner. The US administration has made it clear that it does not seek an all-out war with Iran but aims to retaliate against these proxy groups while avoiding a direct regional conflict.
The challenge for the US now lies in calibrating a response that targets Iran-supported groups to prevent future attacks on US forces, while simultaneously avoiding a prolonged and costly conflict in the region. The administration has signaled a multi-layered and sustained response, indicating that the initial actions taken may not be the final ones.
The situation underscores the inherent difficulties Iran faces in exerting full control over its proxy forces. While Iran supports these groups, the decision-making process and actions of these militias remain largely independent. Going forward, it remains to be seen how Iran will address the issue of controlling these groups, given their limited influence and the consequences their actions have on their international relationships.
