Markets enter an important week dominated by extraordinary uncertainty around the Iran war trajectory following President Trump's late Friday Truth Social post suggesting he is considering "winding down" military operations after degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities. The potential pivot comes just hours after Trump explicitly stated that stopping would not be "acceptable" because Iran could rebuild—the latest in a series of conflicting signals where Trump has repeatedly claimed the war is almost over only to quickly signal extended operations. The weekend saw continued Iranian missile and drone swarm attacks in the Persian Gulf despite launches trending down from Wednesday's peak, while reports emerged that the U.S. is sending thousands of additional Marines to the region and mulling ground force deployment in Iran. The whipsaw between de-escalation and intensification rhetoric creates extreme volatility in oil markets and inflation expectations, with cascading implications for Federal Reserve policy as the CME FedWatch tool now shows market participants expecting zero rate cuts in 2026—a dramatic shift from earlier dovish assumptions. The light economic calendar featuring preliminary March PMI data Tuesday and weekly jobless claims Thursday puts focus squarely on geopolitical developments and their impact on energy prices, inflation trajectories, and Fed policy flexibility.
Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.
