Multiple American personnel have been injured in an attack on the Al-Assad air base in Iraq, with Iranian-backed militias claiming responsibility. The exact number of injured Americans remains unclear, but U.S. Central Command has reported that several personnel are being evaluated for traumatic brain injuries. This incident highlights the ongoing tensions in the region and raises questions about Iran's motivations and endgame.
According to Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. State Department Middle East negotiator. Iran appears to have two key strategic goals. Firstly, they seek to push the United States out of the Middle East, particularly from Iraq and Syria. Iraq holds significant importance for Iran due to its demography and geography. Secondly, Iran aims to challenge any form of U.S.-dominated global order and aligns itself with China and Russia in this regard.
The recent Israeli-Gaza crisis has provided Iran with an opportunity to showcase its influence and flex its muscles. They have demonstrated sophisticated missile technology through various proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis in the Red Sea. So far, Iran seems to be emerging as a 'winner' in this conflict, as they have been able to fight against Israel and the United States indirectly through their proxies without suffering significant consequences.
While Israel has retaliated with airstrikes in Syria, they have not claimed responsibility for the attack. These targeted killings are not unprecedented, but their potential risks in the current volatile environment cannot be overlooked. Miller believes that as long as the Israeli-Gaza conflict persists, Iran can use its proxies as a pretext and justification for its actions. However, he does not anticipate an imminent regional war, though miscalculations or misdirections could escalate tensions.
Moving on to Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments declaring his opposition to a Palestinian state have strained his relationships with international allies. While U.S. President Joe Biden chose a more restrained response, EU foreign affairs chief Joseph Borrell called for an externally imposed two-state solution, even if Israel rejects it. This stark contrast in opposing stances seems to create a deadlock with no clear resolution in sight.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas shows no signs of abating, with both sides having mutually irreconcilable goals. Israel aims to militarily destroy Hamas and eliminate its sovereignty in Gaza, while Hamas desires to survive, secure a prisoner exchange, and end hostilities. Miller sees no immediate solution to this particular conflict and believes that Iran is capitalizing on the regional escalation through its proxies while avoiding direct confrontation with the United States.
With no clear way out, these conflicts have the potential to continue for an extended period. The balancing act between Iran, the United States, and Israel remains delicate, with none of the parties currently seeking a direct confrontation. As the situation unfolds, the region faces a complex web of challenges and escalating fires in various troubled areas.
