Closing post
Time to wrap up…
The International Monetary Fund has warned that AI services such as Claude Mythos could threaten financial stability. In a new blogpost, the IMF says “Mythos could find and exploit vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser—even when used by non-experts”.
AI has also been blamed for a rise in job cuts in the US last month.
Oil has hit its lowest level in over two weeks, on hope that the US and Iran are inching towards a peace agreement. Brent crude is trading around $98 a barrel, having dropped as low as $96.03 a barrel this morning.
The Middle East conflict has helped to push up profits at Shell. The energy giant reported better than expected profits of $6.9bn (£5bn) for the first quarter of 2026, angering climate campaigners.
Shares have fallen in London, but the US stock market has hit a new all-time high.
Output across the UK’s construction output tumbled last month, as the Middle East war hit confidence and drove up prices.
Norway’s central bank has raised interest rates to combat rising inflation, while rates remained on hold in Sweden.
FTSE 100 closes in the red
Britain’s FTSE 100 share index has closed down 1.55%, wiping out around three quarters of yesterday’s rally.
The blue-chip share index has dropped by 162 points to finish at 10,276 points.
Top fallers included Centrica (-5.15%), which said this morning that earnings in its British Gas operations will be towards the lower end of guidance, and weapons maker BAE Systems (-4.7%).
The IMF’s AI cybercrime warning comes as new research finds recent AI systems can independently copy themselves on to other computers….
In Berlin, German chancellor Friedrich Merz has blasted Italy’s UniCredit over its takeover approach for Commerzbank.
Merz told an industry conference that Germany rejects hostile and aggressive takeovers in the banking sector, saying:
Merz pointed to a recent decision by German financial regulator Bafin ordering UniCredit to stop publishing “misleading advertisements” in connection with its bid to take over Commerzbank, declaring:
“That’s not how you treat institutions such as a bank in Germany, Commerzbank. That destroys trust rather fosters new trust.”
UniCredit launched its €35bn takeover offer for Commerzbank in March, despite fierce opposition from Germany’s government.
Whirlpool shares slide after 'recession-level industry decline' warning
Back in the markets, shares in electrical goods maker Whirlpool have plunged more than 10% after it blamed a “recession-level industry decline” for a drop in sales and profits.
Whirlpool reported a 9.6% drop in net sales in the first quarter of this year, and a net loss of $85m, down from a profit of $71m in the first three months of 2025.
The company, which makes dishwashers, washing machines, ovens and fridges, told investors:
War in Iran resulted in recession-level industry decline in the U.S. as consumer confidence collapsed in late February and March.
Chairman and CEO Marc Bitzer says Whirlpool “acted decisively to address pricing and costs” in the face of a rapid deterioration in macroeconomic conditions.
Shares in Whirlpool have dropped by around 13% to $47.66.
In its new blogpost, the IMF cites three ways that AI‑enabled cyber tools threaten financial stability:
Risks are systemic. Attacks become more dangerous when discovery and exploitation scale rapidly, with implications for financial stability.
Risks cut across sectors. The financial sector shares digital foundations with energy, telecommunications, and public services. That means AI‑assisted attacks can propagate across sectors that rely on the same infrastructure.
AI may further concentrate risk and failures with one vulnerability rippling across many institutions. Reliance on a small number of software platforms, cloud providers, or AI models increases the impact of any single exploited weakness.
Updated
IMF warns AI tools such as Mythos threaten financial stability
Newsflash: The International Monetary Fund is warning that financial stability risks are rising as artificial intelligence fuels cyber-attacks.
In a new blogpost, just published, the IMF singles out Claude Mythos as an example of how quickly risks are increasing.
The Fund is calling for “resilience, supervision, and international coordination” to safeguard global financial markets, and protect them against attackers with new AI tools.
It warns that AI tools such as Mythos can “dramatically” cut the time and cost needed to identify and exploit vulnerabilities, which raises the risk of weaknesses in key systems being discovered and exploited.
IMF experts Tobias Adrian, Tamas Gaidosch and Rangachary Ravikumar write:
Mythos could find and exploit vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser—even when used by non-experts.
This foreshadows how fast‑moving, AI‑driven cyber risks could destabilize the financial system if not managed carefully, and why authorities must focus on building resilience through supervision and coordination—rather than treating these developments as purely technical or operational issues.
AI firm Anthropic announced the existence of Mythos on 7 April but said it would not be released publicly because of its ability to identify unknown flaws in IT systems, which could be exploited by hackers.
But on 22 April Anthropic confirmed it is investigating a report that unauthorised users have gained access to Mythos
The IMF says “The Mythos episode” highlights the governance challenges surrounding AI, explaining:
Cyber risk does not respect borders. As AI capabilities spread across countries, inconsistent oversight could weaken a globally interconnected system.
The Fund is also concerned that emerging and developing economies may be disproportionately exposed to attackers targeting regions with weaker defenses
Updated
US stock market hits new highs
Zing! The US stock market has hit new record highs at the start of trading in New York.
With the oil price falling, hopes of a US-Iran peace agreement are spurring shares higher.
The S&P 500 share index has reached a new peak of 7,376 points, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite also hit a new high.
Oil price hits two-week low on Iran deal optimism
Brent crude has now sunk to its lowest level in over two weeks.
The benchmark oil measure is now down 5% today at $96.19 a barrel, its lowest level since 21 April.
Investors appear to remain hopeful that Iran might give a positive reaction to the peace deal proposed by the US yesterday, after US President Donald Trump predicted that the war in Iran will be “over quickly”.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, explains:
The latest developments surrounding Iran have kept investors focused firmly on the risk-on trade.
Reports indicate Tehran is reviewing a US proposal that could eventually lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while broader nuclear discussions may be delayed until later stages. At the same time, President Donald Trump has continued to strike a relatively optimistic tone, suggesting a deal could potentially be reached within a week ahead of the upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15.
Updated
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless support has risen, but remains low.
Last week there were 200,000 new ‘initial claims’ for unemployment insurance, up from 190,000 in the previous week.
That’s lower than expected (economists forecast a rise to 205,000), and suggests US firms are still holding into workers despite the jump in energy prices since the Iran war began (although the Challenger jobs report earlier suggested job cuts were rising….)
Updated
Oil near two-week low
Oil is dropping closer to a two-week low, as Iran continues to ponder the US’s latest peace proposal.
Brent crude is now down more than 3% to just over $98 a barrel, near the lows seen yesterday after Tehran said the strait of Hormuz could reopen under new procedures.
There don’t appear to be any major breakthroughs yet, but key mediator Pakistan remains optimistic.
The Pakistani foreign ministry spokesperson, Tahir Andrabi, would not disclose details of the ongoing diplomatic efforts but said a deal could be reached soon.
He told a news briefing:
“What I can tell you and this is what I have stated before that we remain positive, we remain optimist, and we hope the settlement will be soon rather than later.”
Our Middle East crisis liveblog has the latest developments:
Sterling is having a calm election day.
The pound has gained 0.15% against the US dollar, which is generally weaker amid hopes of a US-Iran peace breakthrough.
The UK currency could be more volatile tomorrow as local election results from England, Scotland and Wales are announced.
There are forecasts that the Labour Party could lose as 1,800 council seats, or 75% of the seats it is defending. The worse the result, the greater the pressure on prime minister Keir Starmer – potentially creating fresh political instability.
Malaysia has joined the ranks of central banks leaving interest rates on hold while it assesses the impact of the Iran war.
Unike Norway, which hiked borrowing costs today (see earlier post), the Bank of Malaysia left its Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75%.
It also warned that sharp increases in energy and commodity prices from the Middle East crisis, and supply chain disruptions, are beginning to hurt global growth momentum, adding:
Downside risks to global growth remain elevated stemming from the uncertainties surrounding the length and severity of the conflict, tighter global financial conditions and concerns over valuations in financial markets.
The surge in building materials costs following the Iran war may make some UK construction projects unviable, warns Kelly Boorman, national head of construction at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK:
“Today’s figures show sentiment in the sector has fallen significantly as the industry braces for the impact of the Middle East conflict. Mobilisation is slowing as UK construction faced cost pressures on slim margins further challenged by the weakening economic backdrop.
“Pipelines are currently strong, particularly for large infrastructure projects including defence, healthcare and data centres. There are however some significant challenges around reassessing the viability of projects and extending mobilisation start dates, as oil price increases hit the supply chain, increasing material and fuel costs.
“With the increased volume of infrastructure projects committed to in prior years, outputs remain strong. However, local elections this week could cause further uncertainty among contractors around where future infrastructure spending will be focused. Uncertainty around planning decisions and concerns around new work to replace completed projects in April could create a shrinkage in the pipeline in the future that will create further instability for the industry. There is a significant risk that some planned projects will become unviable in the current economic climate, particularly for long-term fixed price projects, so we may see some large infrastructure projects put on hold.
Barclays' AGM disrupted
Pro-Palestinian and climate protesters have interrupted the opening minutes of Barclays’ annual general meeting in Westminster, London, PA Media report.
The disruption broke out as chairman Nigel Higgins delivered his opening remarks, with several protesters standing up holding Palestinian flags and shouting “Free free Palestine”, “Everyone here is profiting from genocide” and “Barclays bank, you can’t hide, you’re supporting genocide”.
Mr Higgins responded that the board had “heard your point” and would take questions on the topic during a later Q+A section.
Security staff escorted, and in some cases carried, the protesters out of the meeting room as they continued shouting.
A few minutes later, climate protesters rose from their seats at the AGM and started singing: “Stop, in the name of love, before you break this Earth.”
One shouted:
“This bank is financing the climate and nature crisis that we have to stop. Softly-softly, slowly-slowly is not good enough. You are endangering life on Earth.”
China’s central bank loaded up on gold for an 18th straight month in April, Reuters reports.
They cite data from the People’s Bank of China which shows that China’s gold reserves rose to 74.64m fine troy ounces at the end of April, up from 74.38m at the end of March.
The total value of China’s gold mountain has risen too – to $344.17bn, up from $342.76bn a month earlier. The gold price stabilised in April after falling by 11.5% in March.
UK petrol prices have hit their highest level in over two weeks, as the recent drop in prices fizzles out.
The RAC reports that the average price of a litre of unleaded has risen by 0.1p today to 157.56p, the highest since 20 April.
That moves petrol back towards its recent peak of 158.31p set on 15 April, and still sharply higher than its pre-Iran war level of 132.83p.
US job cuts rise as AI drives layoffs
Newsflash: US-based employers announced 83,387 job cuts in April, as firms turn to AI systems.
Outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas has reported that job cuts rose by 38% month-on-month in April, up from 60,620 job cuts recorded in March.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s latest job cuts report also shows that US employers have announced 300,749 job cuts so far this year, down 50% from the 602,493 cuts recorded in January-Aprill
Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas says:
“Technology companies continue to announce large-scale cuts and are leading all industries in layoff announcements. They are also often citing AI spend and innovation.
Regardless of whether individual jobs are being replaced by AI, the money for those roles is.”
In April, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts for the second month in a row, with 21,490 announced during the month, 26% of total cuts.
Train services hit by commmunication problems
Trains in parts of southern England have been severely disrupted after a fault in a radio system.
Services out of London Waterloo have been badly delayed by an issue preventing drivers and signallers communicating, affecting the railway’s Wessex region southwest of London.
It is understood that the fault has now been fixed, but ongoing disruption is expected in places until the end of the day.
Some services have been cancelled or delayed for an hour or more.
The National Rail website has warned passengers that services may be disrupted through the day. The most affected operators are South Western Railway, as well as some CrossCountry, Gatwick Express, Great Western Railway, London Overground, Southern and Thameslink trains.
SWR warned that services across its entire network “may be cancelled, delayed by up to 90 minutes or revised”.
A Network Rail spokesperson said:
“Due to issues with radio communications, train services in the South West and South have been subject to some delays this morning. Staff have worked to resolve the fault, and train services are now returning to normal. We apologise to passengers for the disruption caused to their journeys this morning.”
Gas price down a little
European wholesale gas prices have dipped today, as traders assess the prospects of a peace deal between the United States and Iran which could get energy supplies from the Gulf flowing again.
The month-ahead UK gas price has dipped by almost 1% to 106.64p a therm.
That's down from a peak of 180p in March after the Iran war began, but still above its pre-conflict levels below 80p.
The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub in the Netherlands is down 1% at €43.44 per Megawatt hour.
UK construction slump: what the experts say
Brian Smith, head of cost management at AECOM, the infrastructure consultancy:
“A dip in output is a troubling sign for a period when activity typically starts to pick up. While a hold in interest rates will keep pressure on developers and buyers, greater stability in borrowing costs should provide a more predictable backdrop for investment decisions.
“Geopolitical tensions continue to threaten rising inflation, further sustaining an unwanted period of uncertainty for developer and contractor confidence.
Paul Atkinson, restructuring advisory partner at business advisery firm FRP:
“There is mounting pressure on many parts of the sector, particularly housebuilding, where demand remains sensitive to borrowing costs.
“There are still pockets of resilience. Many contractors are continuing to adapt their approach, whether by strengthening supply chains, improving cash management or focusing on more secure pipelines.
Huda As’ad, Accenture’s Capital Projects and Infrastructure lead in the UK:
“The steep decline in output this month is a sharp reminder that the sector is still struggling to build sustained momentum. Persistent cost pressures, supply chain disruption and project delays are continuing to stall progress and dent confidence.”
UK builders hit by surge in costs as output tumbles
Newsflash: Output across the UK’s construction output tumbled last month, as the Middle East war hit confidence and drove up prices.
Data provider S&P Global has reported there was a “sharp fall” in business activity across construction last month, with input cost inflation surging and supply chains hit by the conflict.
Its UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index has dropped to 39.7 in April, down from 45.6 in March, showing a sharper contraction (50 points = stagnation).
Civil engineering activity registered the steepest decline, followed by house building.
Construction companies reported subdued demand conditions and a lack of new work, with some noting that “elevated business uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict had led to longer sales conversion times and fewer tender opportunities”.
As a result, builders shed jobs at the fastest rate in four months.
Cost inflation jumped at the fastest rates since June 2022, while building firms also reported international shipping delays and difficulties importing materials from the Gulf region.
Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says:
“A rapid acceleration of input cost inflation was seen across the UK construction sector in April. Aside from the post-pandemic surge in input prices from early-2021 to mid-2022, the latest rise in purchasing costs was the steepest in three decades of data collection.
Around two-thirds of the survey panel reported higher cost burdens in April, which was overwhelmingly linked to fuel surcharges and subsequent rises in raw material prices. Adding to supply chain challenges, the latest data also indicated longer wait times for the delivery of construction items due to international shipping delays.
April data again signalled subdued underlying demand conditions, despite construction companies reporting pockets of growth in areas such as energy infrastructure work. A lack of new orders to replace completed projects contributed to the sharpest decline in business activity for five months.
Expectations for construction activity over the next 12 months remained positive overall during April, but confidence levels were the lowest since last November. Survey respondents cited a growing list of factors weighing on construction sector optimism, including fragile investment sentiment and elevated borrowing costs, alongside continued uncertainty about the impact of the Middle East conflict on prices, supply chains and broader economic prospects.”
Autotrader shares jump as activist fund Palliser 'builds stake'
Back in the City, shares in car marketplace Autotrader have jumped after reports that an activist investor began accumulating a stake.
Sky News are reporting that Palliser Capital has begun building a stake in Autotrader Group and pushing for it to set out plans to return up to £700m to shareholders.
Sky’s Mark Kleinman says:
Sources said that Palliser executives had held constructive discussions with Autotrader’s chief executive, Nathan Coe, and other board members in recent weeks, and that the fund manager had expressed support for the company’s strategy.
One insider said Palliser had been pushing for Autotrader to set out plans to return about £700m to shareholders through a tender offer, share buybacks and dividend payments at its full-year results later this month.
Autotrader are the top riser on the FTSE 100 share index now, up 5.5%, and hit their highest level in three months.
Updated
Norway raises interest rates as Middle East war threatens economic outlook
Newsflash: Norway’s central bank has raised interest rates, to combat the inflationary dangers of the Iran war.
The Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee has just announced it is lifting its policy rate from 4% to 4.25%.
Norges Bank said inflation was already “unexpectedly high”, and pointed out that increase in oil and gas prices due to the war in the Middle East could lead to faster price rises.
Governor Ida Wolden Bache says:
“The Committee judged it appropriate to raise the policy rate at this meeting. Inflation is too high and has run above target for several years.
She added:
“The policy rate forecast presented in March implied the potential need for further tightening of monetary policy later this year. The monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since March, but the war in the Middle East is still causing substantial uncertainty about the economic outlook.”
Sweden's Riksbank leaves interest rates on hold
Sweden’s central bank has left its key interest rate on hold today, while it assesses the economic damage from the Iran war.
The Riksbank held its benchmark rate at 1.75% today, as expected.
It says:
The risk that the war in the Middle East will lead to higher inflation has increased somewhat. However, inflation is currently below the target and the recent outcomes have been clearly lower than the Riksbank’s forecast in March.
In addition, economic activity is weak. This means that there is scope to wait until there is a clearer picture of the effects of the war and the supply shocks it entails.
European markets higher, but UK lags
European markets are higher in early trading, although London is lagging behind.
Germany’s DAX share index has gained 0.4% in early trading, while France’s CAC 40 is 0.7% higher, lifting the pan-European Stoxx 600 index by 0.2%.
However, the UK’s FTSE 100 index is down 58 points, or 0.55%, with energy companies among the fallers.
Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank told clients this morning:
The main driver of the moves over the last 24 hours was that Axios report that the US and Iran were close to agreeing a one-page memo that would end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.
Its provision would reportedly include a moratorium on nuclear enrichment for Iran, whilst the US would lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds in return, as well as both sides lifting restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. And whilst the report left plenty of questions, a more positive tone continued during the day with Trump saying he thought the war “had a very good chance of ending” by next week and telling Fox News that he was “cautiously optimistic” about the proposal. He didn’t look to dispute the Axios report which was notable.
Meanwhile, Iran’s ISNA said that Iran was looking at the US proposal, with Bloomberg reporting that Iran is expected to send a response via Pakistan in the next two days.
The Danish shipping giant Maersk has maintained its profit guidance for the year, even as it reported a spike in fuel costs and warned that traffic through the strait of Hormuz “remains at a near standstill”.
The company, which transports goods around the world via sea, road, rail and air, said demand for shipping containers remained strong, but that war in the Middle East was ramping up costs.
Chief executive Vincent Clerc told BBC News that the reopening of the strait - a key shipping channel through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes - would have a limited impact on cargo flows given the cost pressures the industry was facing.
Clerc said:
“The reopening of the strait of Hormuz, whether it happens in the days to come or the months to come, will have limited impact on cargo flows.
What really are the most important factors to consider: first is our ability to mitigate the cost increases we have been suddenly faced with. And I would say so far we have been successful with both our cost measures and the revenue, the commercial measures that we have put in place to mitigate the impact of these increases to our financials.”
Fuel costs have nearly doubled since the start of the conflict, he said, implying an extra $500m in costs per month, though he added that the company has been able to mitigate this through price rises.
He added:
“The secondary effect from this is actually whether these increased costs are eventually going to lead to inflation and demand destruction as a result, which could create a softened market environment in the second half of the year.”
Shares in Maersk, which are listed in Copenhagen, are down 4% this morning.
Oil drops back below $100 a barrel again
The Brent crude oil price is dropping this morning, towards the two-week lows hit yesterday.
Brent is down around 3% at $98.30 a barrel, back below the $100 a dollar mark, following Donald Trump’s claim that it’s “very possible” the US and Iran will agree a peace deal.
Saxo’s Strategy Team say:
Oil fell sharply on Wednesday as markets priced a lower risk of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, after the US reportedly sent a one-page proposal through Pakistan aimed at ending the conflict and gradually reopening the waterway. Iran is expected to respond in the coming days, with nuclear talks likely to follow later.
However, it’s not yet clear that Trump has found a way to end the conflict, with his latest proposal dubbed an “American wishlist, not a reality” by the spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission…
Updated
Greenpeace have calculated that Shell made $53,241 per minute of profit in the last quarter.
New closing high on the Nikkei
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index has ended today’s session at a new closing high.
The Nikkei jumped by over 5.5% to end the day at 62,833 points – now up 24% so far this year!
With markets up across the Asia-Pacific region, Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
“Global markets are still pricing the glass as half full, with yesterday delivering another strong rally despite little tangible progress towards a lasting resolution in the Middle Eas
Shell’s shareholders will profit from its jump in earnings.
The company is lifting its quarterly dividend to $0.3906 a share, up from $0.3580 in the first three months of 2025.
It is also announcing a new share buyback programme of $3bn, which is another way to funnel cash to investors.
This follows another lucrative quarter for Shell shareholders – the company handed them $5.3bn in the first three months of 2026 – $3.2bn of share buybacks and $2.1bn of dividends.
However, this still leaves Shell’s Q1 dividend below the $0.47 per share dished out in the first quarter of 2019.
Mark van Baal, CEO of the Follow This campaign, says:
“These windfall profits are the result of war, not strategy. The underlying business model remains untenable as fossil fuel demand will enter structural decline soon.
“If Shell can’t restore its dividend to pre-Covid level with the oil price above $100, how will the company create shareholder value when demand declines and the oil price drops?”
Centrica buys Severn gas power plant
Elsewhere in the energy world, the owner of British Gas has agreed to buy the Severn gas power plant in South Wales for approximately £370m almost six years after its previous owner went bust.
Centrica described its new acquisition as one of the most efficient gas plants in the UK, and said that it would play “a critical role” in stabilising the UK’s electricity system.
It agreed to buy the plant from Calon Energy, which entered administration in 2020. The company’s directors were able to regain control of the Severn and Sutton Bridge gas plants in 2021 to allow the plants to continue to run while a sale was agreed.
Severn is one of few gas plants in the UK which can ramp up power output at short notice to fill the gap left by fluctuating renewable electricity or an unplanned outage.
Centrica boss Chris O’Shea said:
“The importance of reliable, flexible generation to balance the system continues to increase, keeping energy supplies secure and affordable as the energy transition progresses. Severn will play an important role in supporting that journey.
With the delivery of replacement capacity being impacted by grid access, rising costs and supply chain constraints, alongside the closure of aging gas assets towards the end of the decade, the need for assets like Severn will increase.”
Shell: repairing Qatar LNG plant will take a year
Shell’s profits jumped despite the production shutdowns and export constraints caused by conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
In March, Production at Shell’s Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar was stopped after an attack on the Ras Laffan Industrial City.
Today, Shell indicates it could take a year to repair the damage to the Pearl ‘train’ (a compressor used to convert natural gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG)).
The company says:
On March 18, 2026, an attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City (Qatar) damaged one of the two trains at the Pearl GTL facility, resulting in a limited write‑off recognised within depreciation in the first quarter 2026.
It is currently anticipated that the full repair of the damaged train will take around one year.
Updated
Anger over Shell's 'monstrous' profits
Danny Gross, climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, says Shell’s profits are ‘indefensible’, after the company doubled its quarterly earnings to $6.9bn this morning.
Gross says:
“Once again, fossil fuel giants are pocketing monstrous profits while drivers are being squeezed at the petrol pump and households are set to pay higher energy bills.
“Our fossil fuel-reliant energy system siphons money away from ordinary people to the rich and powerful.
“The answer is clear: strengthen the windfall tax on these indefensible profits and break our dependence on fossil fuels by powering our economy with homegrown renewables. This would lower energy bills, strengthen the UK’s energy security and protect us all from future energy price spikes.”
Maja Darlington, climate campaigner for Greenpeace UK, says the “fossil fuelled economy” is rigged in favour of oil giants like Shell.
“In the twenty-first century we have cheaper, cleaner alternatives that we can use to power Britain without anybody being bombed. We don’t need to let the fossil fuel industry hold us to ransom and pass on the costs of endless wars and limitless pollution.
The cost of living crisis, the climate crisis, the middle-east crisis, these are all oil industry operating costs. We need to stop subsidising them, introduce new taxes to make them pay and start taxing their obscene profits properly.”
Updated
Shell's profits more than double quarter-on-quarter
Shell has become the latest energy giant to report soaring profits since the Iran war began.
Shell has beaten City forecasts by reporting profits of $6.9bn for the first quarter of 2026 – a period when oil and gas prices jumped and there was dramatic volatility in the energy markets.
That’s up from $3.256bn in the last three months of 2025 – when activity in the energy sector is typically lower (meaning lower profits).
That’s also a sharp jump compared with the first quarter of 2025, when the company made earnings of $5.577bn.
Shell attributes this jump in earnings to its trading division, higher prices and beefier profit margins at its refining business.
It told shareholders:
Adjusted Earnings, compared with the fourth quarter 2025, reflected higher contributions from trading and optimisation mainly impacting our Downstream, Renewables and Energy Solutions businesses, higher realised prices, higher refining margins, lower operating expenses and higher Lubricants margins, partly offset by lower volumes.
This surge in earnings will renew calls for a new windfall tax on the sector.
Anne Jellema, the executive director of climate campaign group 350.org, said:
“While people around the world struggle with soaring energy costs, Shell is raking in billions in added profit. The same crisis that is driving these windfalls is pushing millions closer to hunger and hardship.
“Governments must act now to tax these excess profits and use the money to protect vulnerable households and expand affordable, homegrown renewable energy.
Here’s the full story:
Updated
Iran deal optimism lifts markets
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Global stock markets are continuing to rally today as investors cling to hopes of a deal to end the Iran war.
Asia-Pacific markets have jumped, after strong gains in Europe and the US yesterday on signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations.
Shares pushed higher after US president Donald Trump said a deal with Iran to end the war was “very possible” after “very good talks” over the past 24 hours.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has surged by 5.7% today, as trading resumed after the extended Golden Week holidays, while South Korea’s KOSPI index is up 1.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX is 1% higher.
Iran is currently reviewing a US peace proposal, after Trump told Tehran to accept a deal to end the war or face a new wave of US bombing.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 surged by almost 220 points, or 2.15%, to 10,438 points, while on Wall Street the S&P 500 hit a record high.
Oil plunged, ending yesterday almost 8% lower.
Markets are “aggressively pricing a peace dividend across oil, bonds, and currencies”, reports Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, even though major geopolitical fault lines remain unresolved.
Innes adds:
The market traded like a casino where the fire alarm suddenly stopped ringing just as the champagne carts rolled back onto the floor. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite surged to fresh all-time highs, but truth be told, this was not merely an American rally. It was a full-blown global melt-up as traders aggressively embraced the idea that the Iran war may finally be shifting from missile trajectories to negotiation tables.
The agenda
7am BST: German factory orders
8am BST: Riksbank interest rate decision
9am BST: Norges Bank interest rate decision
9.30am BST: UK construction PMI
10.30am
12.30pmBST: US Challenger job cuts1.30pm BST: US jobless claims
Updated
