MIAMI — There is no defense played in the NBA draft lottery. And yet with the generational talent of Victor Wembanyama available in the May 16 drawing, the outcome of the random-but-weighted process for non-playoff teams could impact the Miami Heat’s playoff or championship outlooks for years to come.
The 7-foot-2 ballhandling, playmaking, outside-shooting French big man is viewed as that transcendent.
Put him in the Eastern Conference, and the Heat’s challenge over the next decade could rise to levels arguably heretofore unseen during the Pat Riley era.
Of course, it all depends on where he lands.
To that end, the Sun Sentinel asked an NBA scout with more than three decades of experience in the league to sort through how Wembanyma could impact the East, depending on where he lands in the conference, or if he lands in the conference.
(The irony is that for as much as the San Antonio Spurs stood as a Heat playoff rival for consecutive NBA Finals, and for as much as the NBA lamented the Spurs landing both David Robinson and Tim Duncan in the lottery, it arguably could be in the Heat’s best interest for Gregg Popovich to again turn his lottery luck into an easy button.)
First, the scout scoffed at any notion of the Heat, if the early struggles continue, moving into tank mode (yes, the Heat hold their own, unprotected first-round pick in the 2023 NBA draft).
“No, no. I mean, I don’t see it,” he said, requesting anonymity because of his role with another team. “Not necessarily management, but just the guys they have. Jimmy Butler, he’s not going to buy into that. I don’t think Bam Adebayo would buy into it. I just don’t think the guys would buy into it.”
So if not here, than what happens if elsewhere?
The scout was asked to assess the addition of Wembanyama to potential Eastern Conference lottery teams, with a focus on those teams’ young talent that would mature alongside Wembanyama.
— Indiana Pacers (with Tyrese Haliburton and Benedict Mathurin in place):
“They might not immediately move to the top with Wembanyama, but, yes, eventually, I think so. Because you’d have a three-guy nucleus. You’d have your four or five with Victor, wherever he plays. And then you have a very potent scorer. That would be a potent combination with those three guys.
— Detroit Pistons (with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey):
“Yes, another team with a similar shot. Because it’s the same analysis as Indiana. You’ve got a big-time point guard in Cade Cunningham. He’s a piece of a championship team, I think. And Ivey is a major talent. Give them two years and people would start going to downtown Detroit.”
— Orlando Magic (with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter and Jalen Suggs):
“It’s funny you ask, because one of my themes entering the season was Orlando has sucked forever. But now, with their three frontcourt core guys — Wagner, Banchero, Carter — they finally have a base. But the difference with them is their guard situation is still off. So until they’ve resolved their guard situation and [do] not rely on Markelle Fultz to be their savior, they’re still going to need guards.”
— Charlotte Hornets (with LaMelo Ball and ???):
“I would be less concerned if I was the Heat or another team in the East if they got Wembanyama. They have Ball. But what else do they have? Their second-best player [Miles Bridges] may be out of the league with his legal problems. Gordon Hayward is fading. Is Terry Rozier going to be there? P.J. Washington is a complementary player. So they don’t have the trio.”
— Chicago Bulls (with Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Lonzo Ball):
“So you have a one, Ball, who I like, and who would probably play well with a big guy like that. You’d have a solid two, LaVine. So you don’t want them to get Wembanyama. But the tread has been on LaVine’s tires for a while, and Ball keeps getting hurt. They’re a little older in terms of their other pieces.”
— New York Knicks (with R.J. Barrett, Jalen Brunson and Obi Toppin):
“Even with Victor, you’d still be missing a guy. To me, it’d be Brunson, Victor and is Barrett the guy? No. Is Julius Randle the guy? No. I’d like Bruson playing with Victor. But you’d still be short one.”
— Toronto Raptors (with Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes):
“They’re loaded and not going to the lottery. But if they slip there, maybe lose in the play-in and get into the lottery, you don’t want Toronto to get him. I could just imagine all the things Nick Nurse would cook up with him and those other guys.”
— Washington Wizards (with the youth of Deni Avidja, Rui Hachimura, Johnny Davis):
“Forget them. Bradley Beal is going to be fading. Going two years forward, Beal is going to be that much older. They still don’t have a major league point guard, even though I like Monte Morris. Their other guys are OK. What else do they have?”
