When Erik Spoelstra addresses the Miami Heat’s possibilities, he often talks about his menu.
In a salary-cap world, the problem is that not everyone gets to eat.
Which is why the impending postseason might be the most significant one in years in terms of the next course to be served by the team’s front office.
No, it’s not quite on the same plane as the 2014 offseason, when despite denials to the contrary, a victory in that year’s NBA Finals almost assuredly would have had LeBron James returning to the team, drastically altering what instead transpired over the past eight seasons.
But the 2022 postseason is as much precursor to the Heat’s next iteration as it is a takeoff to anticipated playoff success.
Two factors in particular will weigh heavy:
— The productivity by Tyler Herro under the brightest lights, likely at a time when he already will have been crowned as winner of the 2022 NBA Sixth Man Award.
— And what next for Victor Oladipo, with the Heat retaining his Bird Rights for what could be a return to the salary stratosphere this offseason, if he can stay on the court on a consistent basis?
It well could prove to be a case of either/or, with Oladipo not only returning to the free-agent market, but with Herro eligible before the start of next season for a rookie-scale extension similar to the five-year, $163 million extension granted to Bam Adebayo before the 2020-21 season.
Based on a salaries of Jimmy Butler ($37.million next season), Adebayo ($30.4 million) and Kyle Lowry ($28.3 million), there likely will have to be a limit on the largesse. Yes, a Herro extension would not kick in until 2023-24, but the cash outlay would create the most top heavy of payrolls.
Herro’s bite at the apple also comes with the Heat conveniently positioned to create a package able to fetch trade targets at the top end of the salary scale.
To their credit, the Heat, and general manager Andy Elisburg, have been particularly savvy over the years in creating salary slots that initially raise question but ultimately create payoffs.
For example, when Meyers Leonard was put back on the Heat books for the 2020-21 season, his $9.4 million salary raised eyebrows. Instead, it was utilized in a trade for Trevor Ariza.
And when Goran Dragic was given a two-year contract that paid $19.4 million this season, the long view provided the Heat with the needed salary match for the August sign-and-trade acquisition of Lowry.
Which brings us to the five-year, $90 million contract signed in August by Duncan Robinson, which led to ample side glances.
But what that agreement did was provide the Heat with a tradeable $16.9 million salary for the 2022 offseason. A payout that when paired with the $5.7 million Herro is due for 2022-23 provides the Heat with not only $22.6 million in combined salary, but the spending power for a player earning in the $28 million range.
Yes, Herro is trending toward a career as the next big perimeter thing for the Heat, arguably with Adebayo as part of the franchise’s bridge to the future.
But, all the while, the clock is ticking on Lowry, who turned 36 in March, and Butler, who turns 33 in September. And yes, Pat Riley did turn 77 this past week.
With breakout moments with Oladipo during the postseason, if that is possible, the Heat could at least have a stand-in for Herro. And with Max Strus under contract at the NBA minimum next season, there is a Robinson fill-in waiting in the wings.
Of course, if Herro replicates his 2020 postseason, then much would become moot, particularly if it comes in a deep playoff run.
Otherwise, there is the math of Herro + Robinson + one more small salary piece (Omer Yurtseven?) = Bradley Beal ($33.7 million if acquired before the end of this cap year). Or perhaps some similar packaging should Donovan Mitchell actually shake free.
So, yes, the 2022 NBA playoffs stand not only to define the 2022 Miami Heat, but also stand to open a window to what comes next.
The flexibility is there, as are trade chips cultivated to potentially match the splashes with Butler in the 2020 offseason and Lowry last summer.
