In a season the Miami Heat have battled attrition, absence and ailment to climb to the top of the standings at the All-Star break, an inconvenient truth appears to have entered the equation:
The Eastern Conference standings might not matter when it comes to the playoffs.
Says who? The analytics. The odds. And a scout with decades of experiences in analyzing such scenarios.
“My answer,” the veteran scout said as the NBA entered the weeklong All-Star break, “is, ‘Who knows?’ Have we ever had a playoffs where the mayor of New York decides who gets to play? You can pretty much throw out the seedings in the East.”
Never has first place seemingly meant so little (save, perhaps, for when the Atlanta Hawks ran away with the East in 2014-15 while largely, and correctly, discounted as title contenders).
Should New York City Mayor Eric Adams alter workplace rules to allow an unvaccinated Kyrie Irving to play in home games for the Brooklyn Nets, the dynamic changes.
Should the Boston Celtics continue their pre-break breakout, with 11 victories in their last 13 games, the dynamic changes.
And with the Hawks languishing at the bottom of the East playoff race after making the East finals last season, the seedings potentially could be turned upside come the playoffs.
So where do we stand?
The standings
1. Heat (38-21), 2. Bulls (38-21), 3. 76ers (35-23), 4. Cavaliers (35-23), 5. Bucks (36-24), 6. Celtics (34-26), 7. Raptors (32-25), 8. Nets (31-28), 9. Hornets (29-31), 10. Hawks (28-30), 11. Wizards (37-21), 12. Knicks (25-34), 13. Pacers (20-40), 14. Pistons (13-45), 15. Magic (13-47).
While it initially appeared as if there would be a five-team breakaway, the Celtics likely will make it a six-team race, with the top six in the conference moving directly into the playoffs. That, for now, would leave the Raptors, Nets, Hornets and Hawks to work their way out of the play-in round, where a single loss can end a season.
538 Projected final standings
1. Heat (53-29), 2. 76ers (50-32), 3. Bucks (50-32), 4. Celtics (49-33), 5. Bulls (48-34), 6. Cavaliers (47-35), 7. Raptors (46-36), 8. Nets (44-38), 9. Hawks (42-40), 10. Hornets (40-42), 11. Wizards (35-47), 12. Knicks (34-48), 13. Pacers (30-52), 14. Magic (20-62), 15. Pistons (19-63).
The analytics-driven website not only shows regular-season respect for the Heat, but shuffles the Bulls back in the pack. Such modeling would have the Heat opening the playoffs against the lesser of the two play-in round survivors, which, in this modeling, would be the Nets.
538 NBA Finals probability
1. Celtics (33%), 2. Bucks (30%), 3. Heat (17%), 4. 76ers (14%), 5. Nets (3%), 6. Bulls (2%), 7. Raptors (1%). All others in East below 1%.
This is where it gets interesting, with the Heat shuffled to a somewhat distant third in 538′s playoff modeling, with the ascent of the Celtics given considerable respect, as well as the roster of the defending-champion Bucks.
Caesar’s Sports Book East title
1. Nets (+280), 2. Bucks (+300), 3. 76ers (+330), 4. Heat (+550), 5. Celtics (+1200), 6. Bulls (+1600), 7. Cavaliers (+2500), 8. Raptors (+4500), 9. Hawks (+6000), 10. Hornets (+10000), 11. Knicks (+25000), 12. Wizards (+50000), 13. Pacers (+100000), 14. Pistons (+100000), 15. Magic (+100000).
The wise guys seemingly view the Heat as a regular-season wonder. Meanwhile, the betting-line confidence remains high on the Nets, even if it means battling out of the play-in round, with confidence of Ben Simmons’ eventual contribution and perhaps Irving’s ability to play home games while unvaccinated.
Scout’s regular-season prediction
1. Heat, 2. Bucks, 3. 76ers, 4. Bulls, 5. Celtics, 6. Cavaliers, 7. Nets, 8. Raptors, 9. Hawks, 10. Hornets, 11. Wizards, 12. Knicks, 13. Pacers, 14. Pistons, 15. Magic.
The scout was asked to forecast the final Eastern Conference standings, based on where teams stand now and how he forecasts them playing the balance of the regular season. Of the Celtics, he said, “They’re coming on. They could even be higher.” But he mostly noted, “The big X-factor is the vaccination law in New York [for the Nets].”
Scout’s ranking of playoff success
1. Nets, 2. Heat, 3. Celtics, 4. Bucks, 5. 76ers, 6. Bulls, 7. Raptors, 8. Cavaliers, 9. Hawks. “And the rest of those teams don’t have a chance.”
“I’m assuming Brooklyn will get Irving back for home games,” the scout said. “That is built into that prediction. Otherwise I wouldn’t make that prediction.
“But keep an eye on Boston. They’re hitting on all cylinders.”
