Whatever you think of Apple Intelligence, one thing is pretty clear about the AI features that Apple is introducing to some of its phones this year — they're not going to be part of the initial iOS 18 release when the full version of that software arrives this fall. What's less clear is what that means for the iPhone 16 release date.
When a developer beta containing some of the first Apple Intelligence features arrived at the end of July, it wasn't part of the iOS 18 beta that's already in the hands of both developers or public beta testers. Instead, Apple released those features as part of an iOS 18.1 developer beta. That confirms that Apple Intelligence will be part of a subsequent iOS 18 update coming after the initial iOS 18 release.
Apple Intelligence figures to be a big part of the iPhone 16 story — only two current iPhones can run the AI features, after all, and Apple executives have indicated that they expect Apple Intelligence to push a lot of people to upgrade their phone in the fall. So might Apple consider pushing back the launch of the iPhone 16 until the Apple Intelligence features currently available as a beta are ready to launch?
I don't think that would be a very smart move. Let's explore why.
Apple's iPhone release schedule
First, let's review how Apple tends to roll out its phones. First, there's a big phone event, usually in September and often within the first two weeks of the month. About 10 days or so after the launch event, the new iPhones will arrive in stores. Just before that, though, Apple usually puts out the full release of whatever iOS it's been beta testing since the Worldwide developer conference. That lets people holding onto their iPhones upgrade their software ahead of a bunch of people setting up their new phones and taxing Apple's servers.
The x.1 updates to iOS releases show up a little bit later — sometimes a few weeks after the initial release, sometimes the next month. If you were to bet on a September release for iOS 18 followed by an October iOS 18.1 update, for example, you probably would be pretty close to spot on, barring some major surprise.
And that's where this iPhone 16 launch delay comes into play. If Apple Intelligence is such a big part of the iPhone 16 models — and it's a safe assumption that all four models will be able to support those AI features — why not hold off on the launch until those capabilities are ready.
This isn't some crackpot idea, either. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman — who is generally wired into Apple's assorted doings — raised it as a possibility in his weekend column before ultimately dismissing it. And that's definitely the right conclusion.
Why Apple shouldn't delay its iPhone 16 release
Important as Apple Intelligence may be, it's just one of the improvements being added to this year's iPhone models. All four new phones are expected to add a Capture button to make it easier to capture video and still photos on the fly, while the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus are also being tipped to add the Action button from the current iPhone 15 Pro models.
As for the iPhone 16 Pro, those phones are expected to see camera upgrades — including an improved telephoto lens in the case of the smaller Pro model. These hardware improvements may not be earth-shattering, but they're still solid enough to convince people to upgrade independent of whatever Apple Intelligence brings to the mix.
Apple Intelligence features are hardware dependent — they can only run on iPhones powered by an A17 Pro chipset or later — they can be added to a phone with a software update, so upgrading an already available iPhone 16 to iOS 18.1 won't be an issue. Apple's added other features in subsequent updates to past iOS releases — the Journal introduced last year didn't appear until the iOS 17.2 update, for example — so it's really not that complicated adding new software-based features later on.
There's also a financial incentive for Apple to get the iPhone 16 out sooner rather than waiting for Apple Intelligence to be ready. Launching the phone in September means a full holiday quarter of new iPhone sales, and that's helpful to the company's bottom line.
It's not ideal from a consumer standpoint. If you're mulling an upgrade to an iPhone 16, you may have to decide whether to buy or not without finding out whether Apple Intelligence features are worth the upgrade. But even if you think the new AI capabilities are the only reason to upgrade, there should be an iOS 18.1 public beta at some point that can give you a flavor of what to expect.
iPhone 16 — all systems go
So it's little surprise that shortly after it became clear that Apple Intelligence won't show up until iOS 18.1, a new report surfaced claiming that Apple would show off the iPhone 16 on September 10. The source of that report — CNMO Technology News — may not an established track record for Apple rumors, but its September 10 matches my own prediction that I arrive at through the well-established scientific method of looking at a calendar and making an educated guess.
At any rate, I'm not expecting having to revise that prediction because a September iPhone 16 launch just makes too much sense, whether Apple Intelligence is along for the ride or not.
