Update (8/3): 9to5Mac is reporting that "sources familiar with the matter" are suggesting the September Apple event is taking place on September 13, with the company preparing for the iPhone 15's launch on September 22. If this is true, it would make our prediction correct.
The iPhone 15 release date is set to be unveiled soon, and although Apple has not officially confirmed when we'll be getting our hands on these new smartphones, we can make predictions based on previous launch dates.
Hardware companies are rarely inconsistent with launch dates, and Apple is no exception. Yearly products of this kind often need to release in a tight window, otherwise, it'll be hard to sell people on your newly released product if a new one comes out too close to the previous model. And based on the iPhone release dates for the past several years, we have a prediction on when the iPhone 15 is coming out.
iPhone 15's predicted launch date
We conjecture that the Apple September event will be held on September 12, and the iPhone 15 will have a release date of September 22. Read on to read our logic behind our educated guess.
The iPhone 15 series will likely be unveiled this September, as Apple consistently holds its fall event during that month. You can trace this occurrence all the way back to 2007, and since 2012, the company has not missed a year.
But iPhone launch dates are nowhere near as consistent. The only complete pattern is that they have been released in the fall ever since the iPhone 4S (excluding SE models), which came out all the way back in 2011. Otherwise, specific months can be a bit jumbled, but from analyzing previous dates, it's clear that Apple favors one specific month over others.
As the table indicates above, Apple adores September. If we disregard the iPhone 12's October launch (a result of Covid-19 delays) and iPhone X's November release (delayed due to issues with original Face ID hardware), a majority of the previous six iPhone models were released within a ten-day span from September 14 to September 24. Unless Apple runs into a hardware production issue that pushes it to October or November, we're expecting this trend to continue.
Because Apple is consistent with launch dates for the most part, the new iPhone series will almost certainly launch this fall, with an even higher probability of the month being September. But as you can see from the table, Apple launches new iPhone models on Fridays.
There are only two Fridays that fall within that aforementioned ten-day span this year, and those are September 15 and September 22. It's also possible it could be on September 29, but Apple has never launched an iPhone model that late into the month.
It's also possible that it could launch on September 9, but once again, Apple has never released an iPhone that early in September.
That leaves us with September 15 and September 22 as our prime suspects, and it's pretty much a coin toss between the two. Apple seems to favor slightly later dates in September, so we're going to wager the iPhone 15 launches on September 22 of this year. Apple also frequently holds its September events on the Tuesday or Wednesday of the week prior to the launch, which would fall on the 12th or 13th.
Lock it in—Laptop Mag predicts that Apple's September event will be held on September 12 or 13, with the iPhone 15 series launching on September 22.
