Iowans are set to brave subzero temperatures on Monday when they arrive at their caucus sites at 7pm to formally kick off the process to choose their nominee.
In terms of pure numbers, the Iowa caucuses won’t have much of a role in determining who the Republican nominee is. The state allocates 40 delegates in the Republican nominating contest, roughly just 1.6% of the more than 2,400 that are up for grabs. But that small total belies the outsized influence the state can have on US presidential politics.
For more than half a century, Iowa has come to occupy a near-mythological place in American politics – becoming known as the place where underdogs can become serious contenders and where dreams of the White House can die. The rural state’s voters often reward retail politicking, giving hope to candidates who visit its 99 counties to shake hands and give stump speeches.
Since the 1970s, its caucuses have been the first nominating contest in each presidential cycle. Candidates crisscross the state in hopes of exceeding expectations and gaining momentum. And while it does not always pick the eventual nominee – Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee have all won there – victories there have been rocket fuel to candidates like Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama.
While Republicans are proceeding as usual with their first-in-the-nation caucuses, Democrats have chosen to shake up their calendar this year. In a largely symbolic move since there is no competitive Democratic primary, the Democratic National Committee has stripped Iowa’s caucuses of their first-in-the-nation status after mounting concerns that the overwhelmingly white state does not reflect the makeup of the party. But a battle over Iowa’s status probably looms for 2028, when there will be a competitive primary.
“Iowa is not first because it’s important. It’s important because it’s first,” said Dennis Goldford, a professor at Drake University in Des Moines and the co-author of The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: The Making of a Media Event. “The morning after the caucuses, Iowa falls off the face of the earth.”
The importance of being first
Iowa wound up being the first state to nominate presidential candidates largely by accident.
After Democrats saw violent protests at the 1968 Democratic convention, the party moved to change the way it selected delegates to limit the power of party bosses. In Iowa, that meant holding precinct caucuses, and then conventions at the county, congressional district and state levels. In 1972, the state convention was set for 20 May because a hall was available for that day, according to the New York Times. A slow mimeograph machine meant that first stage of the process, the precinct caucuses, needed to start in January.
“It was simply a historical accident,” Goldford said.
The caucuses exploded in 1976. In that cycle, Jimmy Carter was not seen as a serious presidential candidate. But his campaign went all in on Iowa, betting that if he won there it would create enough momentum to make him a viable candidate. Carter earned the most votes of any candidate in the caucuses (he finished second behind “uncommitted”) and wound up winning the presidency.
Gordon Fischer, a former chair of the state’s Democratic party, said there had been several efforts over the years by other states wanting to edge out Iowa. When he was chair in the early 2000s, Michigan made an unsuccessful play to go first.
“As much as I like, love and respect the Iowa caucuses and what Iowans have done over the years, probably it was unrealistic to think we were going to keep it for ever,” Fischer said. “It was just too special.”
The growing party divide and its consequences
There has been a mounting push in recent years to have Democrats change their nomination schedule and strip Iowa of its place at the start of the nominating process.
Allowing Iowa to go first, critics argued, gave outsized importance to a state that is overwhelmingly white and did not reflect the base of the Democratic party. It also brought a surge of Democratic attention to a state where Republicans have dominated in recent years (Trump won Iowa in 2020 by more than eight points). The push was exacerbated in 2020 when the Iowa Democratic party botched the release of the caucus results.
The Iowa caucus being first also ignores Black voters, Joe Biden has argued, who have been the “backbone” of the party and should have a “louder and earlier voice in the process”, something the Democrats are trying to do by putting South Carolina as the first official contest this year.
Last year, the Democratic National Committee officially stripped Iowa of its place at the front of the nominating contest. State Democrats have signaled that Iowa will try to compete again in 2028 for the first spot in the nominating contest.
It’s not only bad for Iowans to lose their early status, but for the country as a whole, Fischer said. Iowa has a lot to offer Democrats: media markets are more affordable and the state often rewards candidates who campaign on the ground, de-emphasizing the outsized role of money in politics.
And, perhaps crucially for the party, the state is rural, and Democrats have a problem with rural voters, who have increasingly turned toward the GOP. “Iowa gave candidates the opportunity to talk with and hear from voters that had a rural perspective. I’m not sure that’s the case with the other early states,” he said.
For Republicans, however, the caucuses don’t appear to be going anywhere.
“I would be shocked if the Republicans wanted to change any of this,” Goldford said. “The Republicans now are essentially the party of rural America. It makes Iowa relevant to maintain for the Republicans and the position it’s in in the nomination process.”
Because Republicans are keeping their caucuses, Fischer thinks that gives Iowa a “fighting chance” to make a case for Democrats keeping it, too.
‘A nice exercise in democracy’
On their face, the caucuses themselves seem to be the picture of what democracy looks like: Americans gathering with their neighbors to debate their political differences.
“They force you to do that once every four years. To go and sit and actually have a civil discussion with your neighbors in a moderated atmosphere – if anybody’s seen it operate it’s a marvel,” Art Cullen, the editor of the Storm Lake Times, said. “It’s a nice exercise in democracy and healthy.”
But in recent years there has been more discussion of the undemocratic aspects of the caucus. Only allowing people to caucus on a specific day at a specific time shuts out people who might have to work or who can’t find childcare, or who can’t make it because of bad weather.
Fischer doesn’t agree with the criticisms of the format. Voters caucus in their own neighborhoods, in small precincts, on a date that’s set well in advance. The caucus allows for people to come together to talk politics and persuade each other for one night.
“I think there’s something cool about that. I think there’s something valuable about that. I realize it’s a bit of a barrier, but I think it’s a barrier that can be overcome,” he said.
President Biden criticized the caucus process in a letter to the Democratic National Committee in 2022, saying they hinder participation in the voting process.
“Caucuses – requiring voters to choose in public, to spend significant amounts of time to caucus, disadvantaging hourly workers and anyone who does not have the flexibility to go to a set location at a set time – are inherently anti-participatory,” Biden wrote. “It should be our party’s goal to rid the nominating process of restrictive, anti-worker caucuses.”
Cullen dismissed those concerns, and those that say Iowa is too white to hold this status in the election. He noted that it was Iowa that catapulted the candidacy of Obama, the US’s first Black president.
“Spare me the ‘racist’ bullshit. It’s an excuse to get rid of us because they don’t like our airports and our hotels and they really don’t like the cold weather and have an answer about social security. Or having to answer about why two-thirds of Iowa’s counties are losing population.
'“It gets criticized because you have to sit around for an hour, and, you know, who wants to spend an hour for democracy? An hour every four years,” he added.
