The Iowa caucuses took place on Martin Luther King Jr Day, a national holiday, while a raging winter storm swept through the region.
But still many Iowans made it to their precinct to cast their vote in the first Republican state primary of the 2024 election year.
Within half an hour of the caucuses starting, all major news outlets projected Donald Trump as winner. While the Trump victory seemed all but predetermined, there were still surprises in store.
Here’s what you need to know about the 2024 Iowa caucuses.
1. Trump’s hold on rural America, and the Republican base, remains unthreatened
All major polls predicted a Trump win, and they proved to be right. It was a reminder that when it comes to Trump, the rules do not apply: Trump spent relatively little time campaigning in Iowa, didn’t participate in any of the Republican debates, and spent the last year dodging court dates and legal troubles.
The speed at which the former president won Iowa signals an easy road to the next primary in New Hampshire and likely the Republican nomination.
2. Voters were most concerned about the economy, immigration and foreign policy
The caucuses confirmed that most Republicans are rallying around just a handful of policy issues when making their decision in this year’s election. While economic indicators under Joe Biden have been largely positive, voters in Iowa remain underwhelmed.
Meanwhile, issues at the border and the escalating conflict in the Middle East weighed heavily on people’s minds as they chose their candidate. This could prove an important roadmap for Biden as he looks to gain independent voters.
3. The stakes for democracy got even higher
There were several surveys and polls in Iowa these past few days that indicate that Trump’s attempts to overturn the last election has had lasting influence on his party.
A poll of likely Republican caucus voters published ahead of the vote found that 61% said their support of Trump would not be affected by a potential criminal conviction before the general election. An NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll said 19% of Republican caucus-goers would be more likely to back Trump if he is convicted. And in one poll on Monday evening, 90% of Trump voters said they did not think Biden fairly won the election in 2020. (There is no evidence of widespread fraud in that election, in which Biden won both the electoral college and popular vote.)
4. New Hampshire just got more interesting
The race for second place remains close. Ron DeSantis’s investment in Iowa paid off, as the Florida governor came in ahead of Nikki Haley on Monday. But Haley has focused more on campaigning in New Hampshire in past weeks, giving her an advantage there. With Haley and DeSantis neck-and-neck, this also means that Trump gets what he wants: a clear lead with no viable alternative.
