As rising interest rates, inflation and commodities continue to wrack investor nerves, Real Money Columnist Jim Collins' words from a few weeks ago still ring true.
“You don't fight the Fed and you don’t fight the tape,” Collins wrote in Real Money. “In my first Wall Street internship, we used to study the writings of Wall Street legend Marty Zweig. He pushed that two-headed mantra, and we summer interns used to laughingly wonder what we should do if the Fed and the Tape got into a fight between themselves – which never happens.”
Collins cited the Chicago Fed's website description of the central bank's mission: "Our two goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment are known collectively as the 'dual mandate.'" He pointed out that "Nowhere in that short sentence does it mention keeping Wall Street happy."
However, “since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, Wall Street has become addicted to Fed stimulus and the Bernanke Put has morphed into the Powell Put,” Collins wrote. “Essentially that means that the Fed will always bail out Wall Street, as if there were some kind of put option, by which falling shares could be hoisted on the government.”
Yet while the market "worships" the Fed, "here's the secret: they have no idea what's going on in the real economy. They don't. They are just completely clueless, hence their adherence to the 'inflation is transitory' narrative throughout 2021 that was proven to be so laughingly incorrect."
In the end, if you’re long stocks, especially Nasdaq stocks, you are fighting the Fed. “Right now, you’re also fighting the tape, but who knows how that will play out given the Russia-Ukraine situation,” Collins noted.
With more rate hikes coming "30 years of experience tells me that means investors should lighten up on 'tech' stocks,” Collins added.
