With President Trump’s focus squarely on Iran at present, Jerome Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve are getting some respite from the Oval Office’s attention. It’s a couple of weeks until the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but investors already appear convinced of what the group’s next move will be.
The base interest rate is, at present, between 3.5% and 3.75%, and investors are pricing a more than 97% chance that it will stay there at the next meeting, on April 28, per CME’s FedWatch monitor.
Furthermore, it seems that the rate cuts the likes of President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been requesting are out of the picture entirely at the next meeting, as far as traders are concerned: The remaining 2.6% are pricing in a hike of 25 basis points.
The odds of a Fed hold firmed up in traders’ minds following Friday’s inflation data, which showed prices rose 3.3% over the past 12 months, with gas prices playing a major part in the increase.
