Over Labor Day weekend, social media lit up with observations that President Trump had not been seen in public for several days. Soon, rumors swirled about Trump’s health—and ghoulish hashtags even claimed he had died. Yes, it was just another weekend in the online rumor mill, but this round of speculation came with a novel twist: a flurry of bets about the president’s health on so-called prediction market sites. On Kalshi, the odds of Vice President JD Vance taking office by the end of the year shot up to 15%. For Kalshi customers, a wager of $15 would mean a payout of $100 if Vance took office.
Trump’s alleged disappearance, of course, proved a false alarm. By Tuesday, the internet had moved on to other diversions—but not before pundits blasted Kalshi and its prediction markets rival Polymarket for running “assassination markets,” where the public could (indirectly) wager on the death of a public figure.
