SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO
Prime Minister Scott Morrison doesn’t know whether he will quit politics if he loses the election, telling ABC’s Leigh Sales he’s refusing to think about it. Morrison also said he didn’t think anyone would call the investments he made during the pandemic unnecessary. An insight report conducted by Treasury found $27 billion was paid to businesses that didn’t have a 30% decline in turnover as the rules dictated, meaning taxpayers paid $112,819 for each job actually saved in the scheme, AFR reports, but I digress.
Also this morning, key Liberal backbencher Andrew Bragg wants home owners to use super to pay off their mortgages, the SMH reports, as the conversation continues to swirl about the Coalition’s super-for-houses promise. Morrison’s predecessor Malcolm Turnbull has made his damning view crystal clear, however: the scheme “undermines the objective of superannuation and serves to inflate property prices,” he told the paper.
Labor Housing spokesperson Jason Clare pointed out that if the Coalition thought it was a good idea, why would they wait until six days out from an election to promise it, as Sky News reports. The answer may lie in the census data, The Australian ($) says. Nine of the top 16 electorates with voters aged 25-39 are marginal Coalition and Labor seats, including Brisbane, Wentworth, Reid, Parramatta, Solomon, Higgins, and Swan — and it’s worked before. You might remember Morrison going hard on housing in the final week of 2019’s election too, as Guardian Australia reports. The government says if all 100,000 yearly first home buyers drew down $50,000, it would amount to $5 billion taken from super, 0.14% of our country-wide super kitty — and it would add less than 1% to property transactions, the Oz ($) continues. But the point critics are making is this: why are home buyers transferring their retirement wealth to homeowners?
SIGN OF THE TIMES
Greens leader Adam Bandt will call on next week’s government to sign US President Joe Biden’s Global Methane Pledge — cast your mind back and you may remember more than 90 countries pledged to slash methane emissions by 30% by 2030 last November. Australia is one of the biggest emitters of methane, the second-biggest global warmer, yet we were one of a handful of countries who refused to sign (China, Russia, India, and Iran), as SMH reports. It comes as the Greens laid its cards on the table yesterday, The New Daily reports: urgent action on climate change, dealing with the cost-of-living crisis, progressing the Uluru Statement from the Heart, getting dental onto Medicare, wiping student debt, and making childcare free are among the minor party’s list of demands should they hold the balance of power. Bandt made his preference clear: “We can kick Scott Morrison out,” he said, “… and keep Labor on track”.
So just how likely is it that the Greens or even a single independent will hold the balance of power (that is, the deciding vote on legislation where the major parties vote as one)? It’s certainly happened before, as ABC muses — the medivac laws (allowing doctors to transfer refugees to Australia for treatment) were repealed by a single voter: independent senator Jacqui Lambie. She later revealed it was to see 150 refugees settled in New Zealand instead. Then there was senator Brian Harradine in 1996, who struck a deal to increase youth allowance for his vote on GST. A hung parliament can be a double-edged sword, Michelle Grattan wrote for The Conversation in 2013: those powerbrokers can be own-electorate obsessed when making deals, but a hung parliament can also allow for better legislation unencumbered by party loyalty — indeed Labor’s last hung parliament saw 561 acts from government bills passed, like Gonski, NDIS, paid parental leave, the Murray Darling Basin plan, cigarettes’ plain packaging, and the establishment of a Parliamentary Budget Office. It’s actually a better success rate than Morrison’s Coalition, Guardian Australia analysis shows.
FRUITLESS ENDEAVOURS
Public transport costs could be about to surge in NSW according to a leaked document that shows Sydney’s revenue lags behind global cities, the SMH reports. Passenger fares and other revenue cover 10% of the cost of providing NSW’s transport services — even ferries need half their costs covered by the government. Compare that to London, which recoups 91% of its public transport costs, and Toronto, Canada, which recoups 73%, news.com.au adds.
Meanwhile, Woolworths, Coles, Aldi, and IGA are warning fruit and veggies are about to get more expensive over the next month, The Courier-Mail ($) reports, because of supply chain shortages. Among the at-risk items are lettuce, spinach leaf salad mix, avocados, some apple varieties, seasonal strawberries, and raspberries.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE
Pedants might be reluctant to admit that language is very fluid. Dictionaries — try as they might — rarely keep pace with the speed at which our communication evolves. And with it moves etiquette — not only what to say, but when. The Washington Post (via the SMH) recently consulted the experts, or should I say the textperts — to get the latest on digital manners. Firstly, they say, starting a group text is like holding a dinner party — ask everyone to introduce themselves (it’ll encourage people to engage), don’t be blasé when talking money (some might be in a different financial position) and pull people aside in a private message if there’s a thing only concerning the pair of you (so notifications don’t drive everyone crazy).
Secondly, loosen your tight grip on grammar, or at least relax when receiving messages from people who have. It’s no longer considered the death of civility if capitalisation or question marks disappear, experts say. Thirdly, responses aren’t always required but acknowledging receipt of a message goes a long way — sending something into the digital void can be a bit disorienting when you’re not sure if it landed. Fourthly, it’s good digital manners to not be at odds with your texting partner’s energy — they might feel a bit affronted by an “OK” after they laboured over a tough message. Fifthly, try to avoid the ominous message — “can we talk”, “call me please”, and even “what are you doing on Monday” can leave someone a bit nervy. Finally, experts add, no texting during those important moments — one for our Prime Minister Scott Morrison to observe, perhaps…
Hoping you feel connected to the world around you today.
SAY WHAT?
We know what we will do on Monday; we know what we will do on Sunday. We know what we have to do on the national security side. We know what we have to do on the Quad for that meeting on Tuesday … If we are reelected on Saturday we will be able to just get on with it immediately. There will be no delay, there will be no ‘finding their way around’.
Scott Morrison
The PM’s latest pitch ($) to Australians seems to be “vote for me because next week’s diary is full”, which may not be the most compelling reason, one might think, to do so. What’s that saying about desperate times…?
CRIKEY RECAP
‘What chance is there of a fair election in Queensland against the combined influence of Murdoch and Palmer?’
“To me, it is reasonable conjecture that when Clive Palmer, a single individual who made a fortune from fossil fuel, spends a massively obscene amount of money in this election campaign — as he did in the last — he is looking to orchestrate an outcome that will facilitate his efforts to maintain and build his fortune further from fossil fuel. Regardless of his motive, the notion that a single individual could influence the outcome of a national election by sheer weight of money, is fundamentally anti-democratic.
“And when two former prime ministers acknowledge publicly that, in government, they lived in fear of the power and muscle of another individual — Rupert Murdoch — and when the organs of that individual have the scope to shut down or subvert valid and important public debate, we should also recognise that level of media ownership and that kind of power as fundamentally anti-democratic, as a point of principle as well as in practice.”
Morrison’s Australia — where being young is an economic crime
“For Morrison and the Liberals, the real targets aren’t young people. This is a policy designed to reward the Liberal base while attacking the Great Satan of Liberal theology: industry super funds. Once upon a time, unions occupied a senior place in the Liberal demonology, but industry funds have, for the ideological zealots of the right, arisen from the ashes of the union movement and become more dangerous than unions ever were. If the Morrison government is defeated, it will be wholly apt that it goes out desperately lashing at its great enemy, trying to drag it to hell along with the Morrison-era Liberal Party.
“But who knows — perhaps enough young voters will fall for the nonsense about helping them buy homes (despite Jane Hume admitting this morning that the measure will push house prices up) and enough disaffected older traditional Liberal voters will see the dollar signs from higher property prices, enough to save some seats, stop a teal or two, and enable Morrison to cling to minority government.”
‘The temperature is rising in Mackellar… by late afternoon the cops have been called’
“Eye-witness Selina Todd, 53, single mum of three and a worker in aged care and disability in neighbouring suburb Ingleside, tells me she was there and saw what went down. ‘The women were not looking for a fight,’ she says. ‘They were just sitting there quietly. Falinski was there, puffing out his chest. I told him, ‘You ought to be ashamed of yourself, speaking to those young women the way you just did’.’ Todd alleges that Falinski retorted: ‘What kind of role model are you?’
“Selina shares a lengthy letter she’s composed and plans to send to the newspapers: ‘As have most women, I have experienced intimidation and bullying from men on occasion, and now refuse to stand by when men do this. In my time, I’ve watched many of my clients die. I have worked in extremely difficult and sad situations. I have always treated them with the respect and compassion they deserve. I don’t claim to be much, but I think I’ve done more for the people of Mackellar and Warringah than you [Falinski] ever will.’”
THE COMMENTARIAT
Why Albo wins, and ScoMo loses, with women voters — Graham Young (The AFR): “These personalities collide in a period when female preferences in men appear to be shifting, and combine with a widespread social valorisation of the victim to give Albanese an edge with the key female demographic in an election where sentiment is more potent than policy. Women feel safer with, and more nurturing of, Albanese than Morrison, and Morrison’s behaviour during the campaign has further accentuated that tendency.
“If you hit Albanese, it’s going to make a certain proportion of the female vote feel more nurturing and caring for him. Yet, the Coalition campaign has been one long sledge of Albanese. Of course Labor probably started the sledging with a long-running campaign against Morrison’s character, but as the alpha, he’s presumed to be able to take it, and as a bit of a bully, it’s just rough justice. When Scott Morrison asks Jenny what she thinks he cops flak, but when Albanese says he always tries to think what his mother would do he gets applauded. This seems inconsistent but can be explained by the different personalities. Jenny is seen as being delegated to make a decision by Morrison, so that’s patriarchal alpha male, while Albanese is a delegate for his mother, that’s a loyal feminist beta male.”
Five housing policies that wouldn’t drive up prices in Australia — Greg Jericho (The Guardian): “Look, I know this is not going to happen, but that does not mean it should still not be pursued. A major issue with the housing market is that owner-occupiers are at a disadvantage to investors because the taxation system is skewed towards investors through two things — negative gearing and the capital gains 50% discount. Negative gearing was really just a few embers in the housing market — what caused it to turn into a bonfire was when John Howard poured petrol on it by changing how capital gains were discounted.
“The introduction of the 50% discount not only caused a massive surge in the level of capital gains but also the amount of rental income that was now a loss … If negative gearing is too tough to touch, then the treatment of capital gains needs to be reformed to remove the double incentive of being able to buy a property, claim a loss and then sell it and get a tax benefit from the capital gain. But OK, we know that won’t happen in this environment, so what about … gee, I don’t know, do something about supply?”
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Church leaders slam Israeli police attack on Abu Akleh’s funeral (Al Jazeera)
Buffalo shooting: Gunman sought to ‘continue his rampage’ (BBC)
A fringe conspiracy theory, fostered online, is refashioned by the GOP (The New York Times)
Élisabeth Borne becomes France’s first female prime minister in 30 years (The Guardian)
Sri Lanka down to its last day of petrol, warns new PM (Al Jazeera)
McDonald’s to leave Russia for good after 30 years (BBC)
Canadian home prices fall 6% in April, down for 2nd month in a row (CBC)
[New Zealand] economy ‘red lining’: Another bank predicts biggest house price fall since 1970s (Stuff)
Biden approves plan to redeploy several hundred ground forces into Somalia (The New York Times)
HOLD THE FRONT PAGE
WHAT’S ON TODAY
Muwinina Country (also known as Hobart)
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Tasmanian Minister for Sport Nic Street, Lord Mayor Anna Reynolds, and LGBT rights activist Rodney Croome will all be at the Dorothies Awards which recognise LGBTIQ+ inclusivity in Tasmania.
Online
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Adelaide Law School’s Andrew Stewart, Melbourne Law School’s Tess Hardy, and Centre for Future Work’s Jim Stanford will discuss whether wages should rise to keep pace with inflation in a webinar for the Australia Institute.
Kulin Nation Country (also known as Melbourne)
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Writers Evelyn Araluen, Jack Latimore, and John Morrissey will speak about writing First Nations stories as speculative fiction, in a talk held by The Wheeler Centre.
Yuggera Country (also known as Brisbane)
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Neuroscientist George Paxinos will discuss his novel A River Divided at Avid Reader bookshop. You can also catch this one online.
