Property industry members say the federal government's international student cap will likely do little to curb Canberra's housing crisis in the territory.
The caps, announced in August, were introduced in part to do that, but the government has faced criticism in weeks since.
The Department of Education estimates the ANU will be allowed 3400 new students from outside Australia under the government's cap, compared with 3972 in 2023. That's an almost 14 per cent drop and only three other universities were expected to be harder hit, percentage wise.
The University of Canberra's international students may rise slightly, from 1422 in 2023 to 1500 next year, however the uptick is not expected to be long-lived.
Andrew Purdon is the Pacific manager of capital markets for global commercial realtor CBRE. He said knock-on effects to the housing crisis could be particularly acute in a small city like Canberra.
He said investors were likely to be dubious about building new housing in a relatively small city like Canberra following the caps.
"There is very little purpose-built student accommodation anywhere in Canberra," he said.
"So from an investment perspective, Canberra should be a place people want to invest in, but the problem we face is uncertainty over what will happen to the demand profile."
Mr Purdon said investment decisions were on hold in suburbs like Braddon and Civic, and this could slow development of affordable housing for domestic students and young workers.
Several city developments, including a controversial 406-unit project in Braddon, have already struggled to attract investors over recent years.
Mum and dad investors
In the private investment market, uncertainty also looms.
Selling agent George Vlandis, of LJ Hooker Belconnen, has three properties on the market in the UniGardens complex at 101 Hennessy Street, Belconnen.
These apartments are rented to people studying at the ANU and the University of Canberra, most often to international students.
They are cheaper to buy than nearby apartments of a similar standard, however the require a 50 per cent deposit.
Mr Vlandis said as international caps loomed, private, or "mum and dad", investors, were hesitant to purchase a property that could not service the broader market.
"It has always been hard [to sell these] but it is only going to get harder," he said.
"Anyone turning on the TV is going to think 'Why would I buy an investment property only available to university students if the government is going to be cutting back the numbers?'."
Joshua Gutierrez of Ray White, who also sells at 101 Hennessy Street, said he did not believe the caps contributed to challenges with selling.
However, he said it did not make sense for investors to buy into student accommodation given already high interest rates.
At the time of writing, five apartments within this block were on the market.
What do students have to say?
The international students caps have not been well-met by the ANU Students' Association, which said it has been presented with little evidence of benefits to the rental market.
President Phoenix O'Neill said the caps punished international students in Canberra who were an important part of campus culture.
"Our perspective is that the policy is not going to do what it says it does [for easing the rental market]," they said.
"Instead, it just impacts international students' ability to come to our universities and paints them in an unfair light."
On-campus accommodation had consistently had available rooms this year, Mx O'Neill said. This was often out of reach due to expensive tariffs, and removing international students would not increase accessibility for domestic students.
Building better infrastructure
Mr Purdon said instead of enforcing an international cap, the federal government should look to countries like the United Kingdom and Canada, which have proportionally more dedicated student housing stock.
"Australia is a stand-out market to attract students but we have a very under-developed student accommodation market," he said.
"Canberra is part of the story - there isn't an established student housing market."
As a result, he said, many international students live in the private rental market out of necessity.
"[Dedicated student housing] is a better living outcome for students - they can be social and live with friends - but it also releases supply in the wider housing market for young professionals and families who live in Canberra long-term."
