An interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve’s Dec. 18 meeting remains far from being a done deal, as St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem's latest remarks suggest policymakers may face a heated debate in the weeks ahead.
Speaking at an economic symposium hosted by Bloomberg in New York, Musalem highlighted both progress and risks in the Fed's fight against inflation, indicating the need to approach interest rate cuts with caution.
Musalem reiterated his baseline expectation that inflation will gradually converge to the Fed's 2% target, stating that “additional easing of moderately restrictive policy toward neutral will be appropriate over time.”
Yet, he tempered this view with a strong emphasis on caution, signaling the need to “maintain policy optionality.”
According to Musalem, “the time may be approaching to consider slowing the pace of interest rate reductions, or pausing,” to allow the central bank to better assess the evolving economic outlook.
Economic Strength Clashes With Inflation Risks
Recent data presents a mixed picture for the Fed.
Musalem indicated that, since September, economic activity has exceeded expectations. Yet, inflation remains “higher than desired,” and the labor market is still close to full employment.
“I expect the labor market will remain consistent with full employment while the unemployment rate rises modestly toward estimates of its natural rate,” he added.
However, he cautioned that “easing policy too much too soon poses a greater risk than easing too little, or too slowly.”
He highlighted that premature or excessive rate cuts could add pressure to higher long-term yields, which could, in turn, slow economic activity and pressure employment levels.
“A rapid easing of policy could be detrimental to both sides of the FOMC's dual mandate,” Musalem explained, referencing the Fed's twin goals of price stability and maximum employment.
Productivity As A Key Factor
Musalem identified productivity growth as a crucial factor in sustaining disinflation while allowing the economy to continue expanding.
Yet, uncertainties cloud the outlook. “If productivity growth slows, inflation convergence could be challenged,” he said, adding that sustaining the current economic expansion will require inflation to return to 2% sustainably.
“I favor a patient approach,” Musalem said. Core PCE inflation — currently above target — remains a significant concern, even as the economy grows above its long-term potential and the labor market shows resilience.
“Going the last mile to return inflation to 2% will help keep inflation expectations anchored and provide the price stability underpinning needed to maintain maximum employment and a sustained economic expansion,” he added.
Market Reaction
Musalem's remarks impacted financial markets, with traders adjusting their expectations for the December meeting.
The implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut fell to 68%, down from 72% the previous day, according to Fed funds futures tracked by CME FedWatch tool. The remaining 32% now favor the scenario of rates remaining unchanged.
The U.S. dollar strengthened in response, with the dollar index (DXY) — tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) — rising 0.3%. The greenback gained more than 1% against the Japanese yen.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.27%, reflecting the market's reassessment of future rate cuts.
Interestingly, the stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields did not dampen equity market sentiment. Wall Street remained on track for gains in early morning trading.
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