An anti-renewables campaign warning of massive job losses in regional NSW has been labelled inaccurate "scaremongering" by a leading environmental scientist.
The Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) visited regional towns this week with a report warning that 10,000 jobs were at risk in Dubbo and the Central Tablelands due to "reckless" emissions reductions policies.
The report arrived at that figure by defining every industry that has C02 emissions per worker above the national average as "at-risk".
Industries deemed at-risk under this definition include the entire agriculture sector, all electricity supply workers, and all waste collection, treatment, and disposal services.
Western Sydney University environmental scientist Ian Wright said that was a highly misleading presentation of the data.
"That report is a great example of scaremongering. It focuses on fear and accentuates the worst-case scenario," Dr Wright said.
"It's basically an extrapolation looking at whole-industry estimates."
The conservative think tank claims that 138,095 jobs across the state are at risk, with 67 per cent of those located in rural and regional areas.
It says 11 per cent of the entire Dubbo workforce could find themselves unemployed, while in the Upper Hunter, more than a quarter of jobs could go.
The statistics are contained in the report, which is titled "An analysis of the employment consequences of a net zero emissions target in New South Wales".
IPA deputy executive director Daniel Wild, who is promoting the report around Dubbo and the Central Tablelands, doubled down on the claims.
"The IPA stands by our research. It is methodologically sound and correct," Mr Wild said.
"By definition, industries responsible for the majority of emissions will be most immediately and directly affected by reckless emission reduction mandates being proposed by the major parties."
Mr Wild's tour took in Dubbo, Orange, Mudgee, and Bathurst.
During his visit he produced several promotional videos taking aim at the NSW major parties for their targets of net zero emissions by 2050.
Details of the report, which claims that the bulk of jobs under threat are in Nationals-held seats, come as voters in NSW prepare to head to the polls on Saturday.
MP rubbishes 'bizarre' report
Nationals MP Dugald Saunders, the agriculture minister and member for Dubbo, described the report as "bizarre".
Mr Saunders denied that his government was putting jobs at risk through reckless emissions reductions targets.
"There really is no proof that jobs are under threat because of a target," Mr Saunders said.
"We're not losing jobs … we're gaining jobs in construction, whether it's solar, wind, pumped hydro."
He said the NSW government had no mandates on emissions reductions, and that reductions were being largely driven by private renewable energy companies in the regions.
Dubbo is within the Orana Renewable Energy Zone, a project to turn the region into a clean-energy powerhouse for the state.
Dubbo Labor candidate Josh Black said the report was "alarmist and sensational".
"It doesn't take into account jobs will be created in the renewable industry," Mr Black said.
"I've got a farm myself. I don't see myself going out of business because of emissions reductions.
"But I do know the climate is becoming more variable with more frequent and devastating droughts and storms.
"That's probably a bigger risk to me than decarbonising."
