The explosive growth of prediction markets was once hailed as a breakthrough in forecasting global events. Supporters argued that real-money betting markets could predict political upheaval, elections and geopolitical crises faster than traditional analysts. Critics, however, warned of a darker possibility: what happens when those with access to sensitive information begin placing bets before the world knows what is coming?
That debate has returned sharply into focus after blockchain investigators uncovered a network of anonymous accounts that allegedly made millions from accurately predicting major developments in the Iran conflict.
