THE SNP are sizing up the new Prime Minister with interest and scepticism.
Speaking to the party’s representatives, there is a sense of hesitancy to criticise Andy Burnham nearly as severely as they did with his predecessor Keir Starmer.
But the battle lines with the new PM are being drawn already after Burnham’s Labour conference speech last week.
In it, SNP figures told this paper, were things John Swinney’s troops can agree with. Burnham’s commitment to ending the first-past-the-post system is “very interesting”, according to one SNP politician who wished to remain anonymous.
They predicted: “We’re maybe going to have some wriggle room with Burnham.”
Pete Wishart, the party’s longest-serving MP, told the Sunday National that the party should be “pushing him hard” and “supporting when necessary” on things like electoral reform and rejoining the EU.
He added: “We need a practical approach.”
Burnham’s proposals on electoral reform were vague, promising a “national commission” without outlining its exact remit or when it would report to him.
But he told Labour members in Liverpool: “I invite all the political parties to be part of its work. We will contest the next election with a manifesto commitment to change the electoral system so that everyone’s vote counts and everyone’s voice is heard.”
His comments on the EU as well have gone down well with some in the SNP; however, one politician raised an eyebrow, pointing out: “That’s a big debate.”
This is less true in Scotland, where support for the EU had the majority in all 32 local authority areas, but is more contentious in England and Wales.
Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, who endured a summer of sleaze allegations, has already hailed Burnham’s commitment to putting rejoining the EU on the table as the “biggest boost in my career” so far.
According to polling from the end of September, rejoining the EU is the position of 59% of the British public, with just 32% against.
However, re-running the arguments of the campaign could push opposition to rejoining the trading bloc in the other direction, Farage predicted.
Asked about majority support for rejoining the EU, Farage said: “Of course they do, until you tell them it’ll cost £25 billion […] a year, until you tell him it’ll mean joining Schengen, until he tells them it will mean actually having to recommit to joining the euro.”
He added: “Remember that the leavers haven’t made their arguments since 2016. The ‘remoaners’ have made their arguments every single week. I mean, do you know what? I actually think that Burnham has made a very big political mistake here.”
And the SNP have also sensed a significant vulnerability in the Burnham project in the form of his proposals to tear up the triple lock to fund social care in England and Wales.
Scotland already has free personal care for the elderly, which appears likely to be the set-up planned for England after officials pointed out the Prime Minister’s proposals would not cover “bed and board” costs.
One politician said they were “shocked” by plans to remove the earnings link in the triple lock, saying that Scottish pensioners “can’t afford” the changes. They added: “Why should Scottish pensioners pay for social care in England?”
It is likely to be an argument made by the party when the House of Commons returns from conference recess next Monday.
The issue has already become a weapon for the SNP in the Scottish Parliament, with Swinney last week telling MSPs that Scotland would be better off with independence because “we are now going to lose our pensions”.
He also claimed that analysis showed that pensioners in Scotland will be losing £4bn per year as a result of the cut.
Wishart said: “John has got this absolutely right.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) predicted last week that the changes could result in more than £1 billion extra for the Scottish Government to spend.
Whether this would be spent on social care would be a matter for Holyrood ministers.
And Burnham came in for criticism for a part in his speech where he pointed out that Swinney had predicted he would be the last Prime Minister of the UK on the same day his father died.
“On the day my dad died, the Scottish First Minister said I would be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom,” Burnham told Labour members. “I quote that not to seek sympathy.
“Nor to criticise John Swinney; I don’t think he knew the news at the time.”
One SNP figure said: “The political point-scoring about John was unnecessary. I didn’t understand what that was about.”
Wishart added that the “attack” on Swinney was “appalling” and suggested it was out-of-character for Burnham, who the veteran MP described as being “usually” good at relationship building.
But there remains a large question mark over much of Burnham’s agenda as set out at Labour conference last week.
On his most controversial plans, including pension reforms, the Prime Minister said they would come after the next election, which he has previously said would come after the next General Election.
This has sparked much speculation that the Labour leader could call a snap poll, with both Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Farage predicting an election as early as next spring.
But Wishart said that the PM’s to-do list made this unlikely, saying: “I don’t think there is any chance of an early election.”
Elsewhere it was noted that Burnham’s relatively good popularity ratings could come crashing down when his Chancellor John Healey delivers the first Budget of the new premiership.
Wishart said that Burnham would come up against “hard reality”, while another SNP politician said it would be a “marker” of the new administration.
His personal approval has stood steady at 46% between the start of August and the beginning of September, according to YouGov, with the number of people viewing Burnham unfavourably rising from 33% to 39% in the same period.
And he gets a similarly mixed reception from his rivals. One SNP politician said simply: “The jury’s still out.”
