Just before the March 1996 federal election the then Queensland premier Wayne Goss warned Paul Keating that voters "were sitting on their front verandahs with baseball bats".
He was right. When the dust settled Labor had been swept out of office after a 13-year ascendancy and the Howard era had begun.
It is quite clear the baseball bats were out again in Western Australia's Secret Harbour last Saturday and few doubt that they will be making another appearance when Victoria goes to the polls in a few months' time.
The most significant fallout from Secret Harbour is the winning candidate's assertion that there are now "no safe Labor seats" as far as One Nation is concerned. That follows similar claims about the vulnerability of Liberal and National seats in the wake of the Farrer byelection.
Australian politics is in the midst of a major paradigm shift and it is not inconceivable that the Albanese government, despite its huge lower house majority which was achieved with a very low first preference vote in 2025, could lose to a coalition of right wing parties in 2028.
The Secret Harbour numbers confirm that the minor party threat is serious. One Nation captured 39.1 per cent of the primary vote, representing a massive 30.6 per cent surge, before securing a decisive 57.0 per cent to 43.0 per cent victory over Labor after preferences. Even applying the standard political test for a byelection of halving the swing to gauge a national trend, Labor would still lose the seat.
The federal government, which has grown dangerously complacent during its second term thanks to its parliamentary majority, now faces serious trouble. During a joint broadcast interview last week, Nationals leader Matt Canavan and Pauline Hanson flagged a willingness to work together to form government if parliamentary numbers fall that way.
While a One Nation-led administration lacking experienced parliamentarians capable of serving effectively as ministers would be a major concern for the nation, a practical coalition model may be possible.
One Nation could guarantee supply while exercising substantial policy influence and securing key ministerial posts. The $64 question is whether this voter surge toward One Nation is permanent or temporary.
Victoria will soon provide clear answers, given that One Nation previously lacked even a beachhead in that state.
A recent survey of more than 1600 readers of Australian Community Media's Victorian mastheads shows One Nation support skyrocketing sevenfold to 22 per cent, up from three per cent at the state's last election in 2022. The party commands 34 per cent support among younger regional males and 33 per cent among farming types.
Disillusioned regional voters cite crumbling infrastructure, especially country roads, overloaded emergency departments at regional hospitals, escalating crime rates and surging living costs. These voters are seeking a way to express their profound dissatisfaction with both Labor and the Liberals.
Labor and the Coalition must urgently unthink their habitual practice of blaming their political opponents for the rapid rise of One Nation.
Both must recognise they are the problem because they have failed to address pressing regional priorities. Political leaders need to stop dismissing minor party voters and start listening to disaffected communities.
Unless the major parties confront their own shortcomings and re-engage with forgotten regional electorates, angry Australian voters will use their ballots to shatter the political status quo.
