Last June, the Giants and Red Sox stunned baseball by completing a trade that would have been unthinkable just months prior. Boston’s franchise slugger, Rafael Devers, was shipped to San Francisco for three prospects and a reliever. It’s a deal that hasn’t worked out for anyone involved.
At the time, Giants general manager Buster Posey appeared to have pulled off a massive coup by landing the big lefty bat his team was missing. Meanwhile, Red Sox GM Craig Breslow was ripped for the deal as he accepted what looked like a modest return for an elite hitter.
More than a year later, it looks like both teams somehow lost the trade despite Boston acquiring some quality players in the deal.
Devers hasn’t played up to expectations in San Francisco, and things only got worse this week when an on-field outburst undermined rookie manager Tony Vitello’s authority. Meanwhile, Boston no longer has three of the players it acquired for the former All-Star after flipping both of the top prospects they got from San Francisco.
Posey’s decisions as the Giants’ GM have come under fire, while Breslow’s tenure has been a comedy of errors. The entire trade has become a cautionary tale.
A year on from the shocking deal, we’re here to break down the numbers of the rare trade that made both sides worse.
Giants Receive
- 1B/DH Rafael Devers
Red Sox receive
- LHP Kyle Harrison
- OF James Tibbs III
- RHP Jordan Hicks
- RHP Jose Bello
Note: We’re leaving Bello out of this assessment. He’s a 21-year-old in A ball who isn’t much of a prospect, so his progress almost certainly won’t affect how this deal is looked back on.
Rafael Devers
.237 — Devers’s batting average since the trade. He hit .279 in his eight-plus career seasons before the deal.
.238 — His batting average in 2026, a career low.
.326 — On-base percentage for Devers since the trade, 22 points lower than his career mark before the trade.
.301 — His OBP in 2026, his worst mark since 2018.
.446 — Devers’s slugging percentage since the trade, 64 points lower than his career mark before the trade.
.430 — His SLG in 2026, a career-worst mark.
1.6 — fWAR produced by Devers in 165 games since the trade.
29.3% — Strikeout rate for Devers since the trade, ninth-worst among qualified hitters. It was 21.3% for his career until the deal.
115 — wRC+ for Devers since the trade. That’s 12 points lower than his career mark before the deal. Not bad, but not that of a franchise player he’s being paid like.
102 — His wRC+ in 2026, a career-low, meaning he’s hit just 2% better than the average MLB batter.
27 million — Dollars Devers is making this season.
199.5 million — Dollars remaining on Devers’s contract after this season. He’ll make $28.5 million per year through the 2033 season.
The Giants thought they were acquiring a powerful left-handed bat. What they got was close to a league-average hitter with a massive contract and, seemingly, an attitude problem.
Now we're turning our attention to the pieces the Red Sox received for Devers. Yes, they got out from under his massive contract, but Boston traded a three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger who had one of the most potent bats in the American League. They should have expected to come out of it with good assets.
The Red Sox landed hard-throwing reliever Jordan Hicks, a young lefty starting pitcher in Kyle Harrison, outfielder James Tibbs III, who was the 13th pick in the 2024 MLB draft, and righty Jose Bello. Only Bello is still in the organization.
Jordan Hicks
18 2/3 — Innings by Hicks in 21 appearances with the Red Sox.
20 — Runs allowed by Hicks in those innings, 17 of which were earned.
37 — Combined walks and hits allowed in that time.
1.98 — WHIP for Hicks in 21 appearances for the Red Sox in 2025.
8.20 — Hicks’s ERA with the Red Sox last year. With the Giants and Red Sox combined the number was 6.95. as he had a 6.47 ERA at the time of the trade.
Woof.
After the season, the Red Sox traded Hicks and righty David Sandlin to the White Sox for 23-year-old righty Gage Ziehl, who is struggling in Double A.
Kyle Harrison
Harrison made three appearances (two starts) for the Red Sox in 2025. In the offseason he was shipped to the Brewers as part of the package for third baseman Caleb Durbin. Here’s a look at how Harrison and Durbin are doing.
8 — Wins by Harrison since the trade. All have come this season for the Brewers, as he’s 8–1 in 13 starts.
1.9 — fWAR generated this year, which ranks 28th among all pitchers and eighth among lefties.
2.50 — Harrison’s ERA this year. He also had a 3.00 ERA in a limited sample size of 12 innings for the Red Sox last year.
6.2% — His walk rate this season, which ranks in the 83rd percentile.
30% — His strikeout rate, which ranks in the 92nd percnetile.
10.88 — Strikeouts per nine inning for Harrison this year, which ranks fourth among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. That trails only Dylan Cease, Jacob Misiorowski and Paul Skenes.
Caleb Durbin
0.5 — fWAR for Durbin so far this season. Most of that is due to his solid defense at third base.
.220 — Durbin’s batting average through 70 games with the Red Sox. That’s down 36 points from 2025.
.275 — On-base percentage for Durbin in 2026, down 59 points from last season.
.336 — Slugging percentage for Durbin in 2026, down 21 points from last season.
72 — Durbin’s wRC+, which ranks 144th out of 153 qualified MLB hitters. He was at 105 with the Brewers last season.
Harrison currently looks like one of the best young lefties in the game, while Durbin has been a mess for the Red Sox. It’s early, but that trade looks awful.
James Tibbs III
Tibbs was with the Red Sox for roughly six weeks. He was flipped to the Dodgers at the trade deadline as part of a deal for starting pitcher Dustin May.
20 — Home runs in 73 games at Triple A Oklahoma City in 2026.
.413 — On-base percentage for Tibbs this season. Power numbers get inflated in the Pacific Coast League, but his OBP being that high is a great sign for his plate discipline. He has 58 walks against 89 strikeouts so far.
1.002 — Tibbs’s OPS in 2026.
148 — Tibbs’s wRC+ this season. He’s dominating the circuit and looks like a guy who should be in the big leagues.
Dustin May
28 1/3 — Innings pitched by May in six appearances (five starts) for the Red Sox in 2025 before hitting free agency. They surrendered Tibbs for just more than three full games of a starting pitcher.
35 — Hits allowed by May in those 28 1/3 innings.
1.69 — May’s WHIP with the Red Sox. He allowed 48 base runners in those innings.
5.40 — May’s ERA in his six outings for Boston down the stretch last season.
-0.1 — May’s fWAR during his time with the Red Sox.
Tibbs is crushing the ball at Triple A. There’s no guarantee his bat will translate to the big leagues, but the Red Sox shipped him out for May, who looked like a shell of his former self in 2025. Even worse for the Giants, Tibbs is now one of the Dodgers’ top prospects, so their former farmhand could haunt them while playing for their biggest rivals for years to come. And to compound the situation on Boston’s side, May is in the middle of a bounce-back season for St. Louis.
It’s not hard to see that the deal has been a flop for both teams. Unless Devers turns things around both on and off the field, or Bello matures into a valuable arm, this will continue to be a mess both ways. It's nearly impossible to find a “winner” in this deal, but at least the Red Sox are out from under Devers’s contract. I guess we'll count that as a small victory.
As for the Giants? It appears to be a complete failure.
