In the off-season circus that nearly overshadows the game itself, "potential" runs the world.
With comparables and traits analysed by fans and draft watchers alike, the potential of the teenagers who get their name called on the draft stage is in long supply. Each year diehards for all 18 clubs will swear that they have walked away with a crop of 300 game players, you know, if everything breaks right.
Spoiler alert: not all draftees live up to their lofty potential. Even for those who do, the path from the bottom to the top isn't uniform or paved with gold.
Different players bloom at different times. Sometimes, it takes a positional shift. Often, extra opportunities deliver impressive results. Picking which ones will succeed is one part science, one part luck and a whole lot of hard work.
This season has seen a number of players breakout and turn that potential into actual production. This column could list dozens of players, but will focus on three that should be in discussions for being in the extended All-Australian squad currently. All three are in their early 20s, and have faced different issues in their careers to date.
This is how Dylan Moore, Tom Green and Nick Blakey have risen up and taken the competition by storm so far in 2022.
Giving them Moore
Stop us if you've heard this before.
Talented young junior, hard at it with a knack of finding the footy, but overlooked due to his height. It's not Lachie Neale, or Dayne Zorko, or Caleb Daniel. In an era that emphasises size all across the ground, players who stand just a little bit shorter can provide some of the best value in the draft.
Hawthorn dynamo Dylan Moore has followed the mould of some of those listed above and has shone for the improving Hawks.
Coming into the draft, Moore had an impressive final season of junior footy, finally breaking into the Vic Metro setup and starring at TAC Cup level. Draft watchers rated his ability to both win the ball and use it effectively, able to hit teammates and the scoreboard with the Sherrin. An elite junior athlete, what Moore lacks in raw speed he makes up for with endurance and repeat efforts.
After struggling for playing time in his first three years at a Hawthorn side desperate to contend for the flag, Moore has thrived with the extra opportunities thrown his way. Moore's game is increasingly multifaceted, developing from just a pressure and drop of ball small forward into a distributor and ball winner as well.
An inside midfielder in his earlier days, Moore is no stranger to applying physical pressure despite his size, sitting near the top for tackles inside 50 in the past two years. He's also increasingly being relied upon to win clearances, especially in the front half of the ground from stoppages.
Moore's improvement is somewhat hard to untwine from the general improvement of the Hawthorn forward line this year — especially their ability to efficiently score from inside 50s. Instead of having a game changing key position forward (or two) like they did in their recent dynasty, the Hawks have relied on each component doing their jobs on the day.
So far this year, Moore leads Hawthorn for tackles inside 50, fourth for marks and score involvements and is fifth for metres gained.
While he is averaging more than a goal a game this year, his bigger value comes from the pressure he applies and how he distributes to teammates. That doesn't usually make headlines, but is critical in the modern game.
Green rises higher than the stars
Sliders in the draft also happen at the top end of the draft. Top picks get raked over more than anyone else, with weaknesses amplified on a national stage.
However, that's likely not why Tom Green slid down the order in the 2019 draft. Nor did it affect his eventual home.
As a member of the GWS academy, Green was long tied to the Giants, making the pick more or less academic. Nevertheless, in a good draft crop some clubs prioritised players that would wear the colours of the club rather than one who wouldn't, leaving Green to fall to pick 10.
It's about as far from Moore's story as you could get.
Green, a supersized midfielder with clean, creative hands and a hard edge to his game, was billed as a ready-made difference maker in the middle.
The Giants have long struggled to provide enough opportunities to the plethora of talented midfielders on its list. It's generally a good problem to have, but it means that some players take circuitous paths to their final form.
GWS's push for immediate success meant that the young Canberran was played in the reserves or on the fringes of the contest. In 2021 he occasionally started play as the deep forward at the bounce, marooned in the goal square. While his height and strength means he can fight in a contest, it's far from his strength as a player.
Despite playing large chunks of the year out of his best position, Green still managed to finish second in last year's Rising Star Award. It also makes his rise this year even more impressive.
Part of what makes Green so special is his ability to predict where the hard ball will go and read it off hands, able to make lemonade from the sourest of hard ball lemons. He's also surprisingly creative when he gets the pill in his hands, able to work his way through the scramble using his size to look through the contest.
The Giants are the fourth best side at scoring from clearances, with Green leading the way at the Giants for both stoppage and centre clearances.
Green is also able to influence the play later in the chain of possession if needed, with his kicks inside 50 generally targeted the right way.
In some ways he resembles fellow taller redhead midfielder Clayton Oliver, both able to truly damage opposing sides through the middle.
As new coach Mark McVeigh imposes his new strategy on the Giants, different players are seeing more time at the centre bounce, such as Harry Perryman.Teams run more mids than those who just attend the bounce, but it's a decent proxy for those who form the inner ring at stoppages around the ground. As a result Green's numbers may drop over the second half of the year.
No matter what happens from here, Green has already stamped his application to join the club of the game's best inside midfielders this year.
Blakey finds his home
Like Green, Sydney's Nick Blakey was a product of a NSW academy, but he had a slightly more unconventional path to the Swans. Due to his father John's long playing career, Blakey was also eligible as a father-son selection for Brisbane and North Melbourne. In the end, Nick chose the local Swans.
Blakey's on field journey has been a similar process of finding a home, with the young tall being thrown across the ground early in his career. Starting out in the forward line, Blakey shaped as a critical piece of the later Franklin years up forward. That is, until the goals and touches dried up.
The UNSW-Easts product was then tried as a link player, higher half-forward and even stints on the ball with little success. Blakey fell in and out of a struggling Sydney side, both struggling to find their footballing identities.
Blakey's career revival has come after a move down back, first in the reserves and then in the seniors. It makes as much sense in real life as it does on paper.
Blakey's ability to read the ball in flight matches perfectly with his size and speed, allowing him to close off contests and hold Sydney's rock tight defensive structure.
But what elevates Blakey is what he is able to do with ball in hand. Few players of his size are able to use the ball remotely as well as Blakey.
The Swans are in the top four for points from defensive half turnovers, with Blakey's running and kicking a key initiator in transition.
After the departure of Jordan Dawson (one of last year's most improved players) in the off-season, Blakey has shouldered an increased role in the Swans' counterattack.
This ability to attack from defence is critical to Sydney's success, and is the bedrock to their rise back up the ladder.
It also means that the Swans can credibly play four taller defenders, alongside the brothers McCartin and Dane Rampe.
Few attacks can beat the Swans for size, and those four have enough mobility to cover most smaller forward lines. Blakey's sheer ability in the air and on the deck allows the Swans to be more flexible than most sides.
While the early career shuffle may have been frustrating to Blakey at the time, it has started to pay off in spades.
