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Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson

Inside the Game: The challengers versus AFL premiers past — how the elimination finals break down

Every year a city pops up out of nowhere at the base of the world's biggest summit. A mini-ecosystem out of the rocks covered in ice, in a place generally inconsistent with living.

It can take weeks just to reach base camp, let alone starting off for the summit. Those who do go up often only get one or two shots to reach the top before conditions turn.

Everest can only be climbed at the right time of year, when the weather conditions allow it.

The AFL season is similarly a long struggle before the fun really starts. Twenty-three weeks of football captures the attention of fans across the country, before the mountain of finals comes into sight.

The 18 teams are swiftly reduced to eight real contenders, and the prize of the premiership cup is finally placed on the table.

Four sides will win on the weekend, and four will lose. Two will lose for the last time in 2022. Those 23 long weeks, months of hard work, will disappear into a memory as soon as the siren blows.

For those two teams, this is their last shot for the year with no room for error. All four sides from fifth to eighth have played brilliant football this year at times, capable of beating practically anyone.

Richmond and the Dogs have been to the top recently, and want to recapture that special feeling of success. The Lions and Dockers are looking to break through and upset the rhythm of premiers past.

After Fremantle's season wrapped up, Justin Longmuir clearly told ABC Sport that they deserved to be there, but that the real work was still to come.

"We didn't scrape into finals. We deserve to be there on a large body of work. We look forward to it, and be ready for the challenge," he said.

Longmuir isn't alone among the coaches of the four teams in the bottom half of the eight. All four sides know they can beat any team left, but the real question is whether they can even get out of the first week of finals.

We've been here before

There's an odd sense of deja vu that accompanies the first final of the year, played in Brisbane between the Lions and Richmond.

Maybe that's because this is the third time in four years we've seen that exact scenario in the first week of the finals.

The seasons of each side have been like two sides of the same coin. At the halfway point this year the Lions were on top of the ladder and the Tigers were out of the eight.

Since then, the Tigers have started to shake the doubters away while questions have landed at the doormat of the Den.

Both sides' best footy rivals any team in the competition. Elements of their play, such as the Lions' forward set-up, are the envy of all sides.

The Lions are a ferocious attacking side, the most efficient side in the competition at turning inside-50s into points. Despite running with a three-tall set up for much of the year, the focal point is the do-it-all Charlie Cameron.

Cameron is not only one of the best pressure forwards in the competition, but also a stellar mark inside 50. Much like Toby Greene, sides often have to throw a taller option onto him to quell his aerial impact.

Cameron is supported by one of the game's best stoppage set-ups inside 50, able to turn ball-ups and throw-ins into points.

As the silky skills of Brisbane shine through, equally the defensive effort and counter-attack of the Tigers is their hallmark.

Then-future Richmond premiership-winning coach Damien Hardwick summed up the increased pressure of finals, and their approach, in 2015.

"The contested nature of the game ramps up a little bit … All the sides within the eight are obviously good sides, so the contested-ball numbers probably go up about 10 per cent," Hardwick said.

That focus on the contest in big games has been a blueprint for the Tigers' recent success. Richmond thrives in the chaos of the loose and hard-ball gets, backed up by a rock solid defensive set-up where the sum is greater than its parts.

The Tigers have dominated the turnover game, scoring the most points from intercepts of any side this year. At the same time they have limited the damage from their own mistakes.

The Tigers have been hot and cold at stoppages however, with a rotating cast filtering through the set-up this year. But the side has gotten better as the year has gone on.

But they are not the only side with an eye to improvement.

When asked by ABC Sport what the Lions needed to improve going into finals, Brisbane coach Chris Fagan was clear.

"Everything. Everything. You're always trying to improve everything." Fagan said. After a moment's pause, Fagan drilled a little further.

"I think we will just keep our focus on team defence. That's been pretty important for us. We've been a bit inconsistent with it."

Fagan's statement nails down the Lions' biggest weakness this year — defence across all parts of the game. For all of the Lions' brilliance with ball in hand, they have been unable to stop opposition sides from scoring.

Brisbane are one of only two finalists, alongside the Dogs, to concede more points per opposition inside 50 than league average. That's a bad sign when it comes to the cauldron of finals.

Since the middle of the season, the Lions have been the fifth-worst side at defending turnovers, conceding 78 points per 100 turnovers compared with the Cats' 51.

The final shapes as a battle between an immovable Tiger side and an irresistible Lions attack.

Battle of the West

No side knows what it is like to make the grand final from the bottom half of finals better than the Bulldogs. After all, they made the grand final last year from fifth and won the whole thing in 2016 from seventh.

The Dogs famously missed finals after their drought-breaking flag. This year, they fell just one Carlton point away from missing again. For Luke Beveridge and the Dogs, the most important thing is that they are still alive this year.

The formula for the Dogs' success is similar to that in recent years. Their ability to generate repeat attacking entries is their bread and butter.

Few sides score more effectively after winning the ball in their own half than the Dogs.

A combination of Beveridge's astute game plan and the Bulldogs' plethora of talent in the midfield makes them dangerous for any opposition side. Their best football is spellbinding, a cacophony of slick handballs and penetrating kicks often ending in the hands of one of the game's best contested marks (Aaron Naughton).

Despite their ball-winning strengths up the ground, the Dogs have struggled when the ball has broken deeper. As mentioned above, only the Lions have been worse at stopping opposition inside-50 entries of all finalists.

This also stands in direct contrast to their week one opponent.

Since coach Justin Longmuir took over in 2020, the Dockers have shaped themselves into a defensive powerhouse built to win in September.

Finals footy is generally lower-scoring and tougher than its home and away counterpart. If the screws tighten again this year, Freo will be in a good spot to capitalise. Perhaps their best demonstration of this is how they beat Melbourne earlier this year — beating them with a similar game plan to their own.

In some senses Fremantle presents like the most similar club stylistically to the reigning premiers, with a solid defensive backbone covering any weaknesses up the ground.

Fremantle excel at almost every defensive category, but are especially strong defending from their forward line. Their opponents have struggled all year to effectively transition the ball from defence, often losing the territory battle before it's truly started.

If there is a weakness to the Flagmantle charge it is their attack, with a rotating cast of taller targets up forward. Injuries to Rory Lobb, Matt Taberner and Nat Fyfe have created uncertainty for the club.

One major strength of their inside-50 set-up is their small forwards, often relied upon to lay pressure and create second chances at goal. Longmuir often drops a small forward very deep, to disrupt the opposition set up and stretch defences away from their main targets.

After their win over GWS in round 23, Longmuir elaborated to ABC Sport on the strategy.

"We wanted to take away their interceptors, and I think he (Sa Taylor) has been as good as anyone in the comp at doing it. We just wanted to play a bit more length with our deeper players." Longmuir said.

A well-versed side, like the Bulldogs, will be clued into this and aware of the potential move. Part of the beauty of finals is watching how sides attempt to overcome the other with a combination of physicality and strategy.

Like the Thursday night battle, the battle for the West shapes as a stylistic clash of modern footy styles.

At the end of the weekend the eight will be reduced to six on their long march to the top, all with a real chance of hoisting the cup aloft.

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