The same 48-hour window that produced a new poll showing Ken Paxton behind also delivered a presidential rally in Denton and a collision of dueling attack campaigns — each development exposing a different structural crack in a Texas Senate race that has entered its final stretch with the Republican attorney general still unable to break through the ceiling that every credible independent survey has drawn around him. As of October 7, Trump has now returned to Texas a third time in under a month, underscoring just how competitively the state has evolved in a cycle that began with Republicans treating it as safe ground.