Inside the Fed’s economic projections, ‘something isn’t adding up’ according to SoFi’s investment chief

Photo: WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 17: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on September 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. In the face of a softening labor market, Powell announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, bringing rates down to a new range of 4 percent to 4.25 percent. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) (Credit: Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

• The Fed is forecasting economic growth and falling unemployment, yet it is cutting interest rates—something usually seen in recessions. U.S. stocks hit a record high yesterday, and some Wall Street analysts are concerned that this all looks a bit frothy.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Summary of Economic Projections,” published this week, shows that the central bank believes the economy will grow through 2028. In June, their change in GDP estimate for 2025 was 1.4%. Now, it’s 1.6%. It’s even rosier for 2026: 1.8%, rising to 1.9% in 2027.