TORY MPs will tonight vote on Boris Johnson’s position as leader – and they’re seeing arguments both for and against him thrown around on each side of the argument.
On Monday morning, MPs started receiving a briefing note – apparently from Conservative HQ – explaining why they should support the Prime Minister.
It followed the circulation of a briefing note among Tory rebels over the weekend making the case for ousting their party chief.
These are the main points featured on each note.
The pro-Boris briefing note
This letter argues that by backing Johnson “we can put the distraction of the past months behind us, unite, and focus on getting on with the job”.
It states that the cost-of-living crisis is causing anxiety among the British public and launching a leadership contest would be “extremely harmful” to the UK at this time.
The Johnson defence argues that he “led this country through its biggest peacetime crisis in a generation”, delivering a quick vaccine roll-out and economic support during lockdowns.
On partygate, which is the main concern among his opponents, it adds that the Prime Minister “fully co-operated with every investigation, made substantial changes to Downing Street, and installed a new team”.
The briefing note boasts that Johnson achieved the biggest Conservative majority in decades back in 2019, “got Brexit done”, “restored our freedoms more quickly than other countries” after lockdowns and is “standing up to Putin”.
“A blue-on-blue civil war will be vicious and tear the party apart,” it goes on. “Voters will only hear we are divided, distracted, and talking to ourselves about ourselves. The person who will benefit is Keir Starmer. Only Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and our other political opponents would stand to gain.”
The defence insists that Johnson will “win again”.
“Boris Johnson is the Conservative Party’s most proven and thoroughly tested election winner,” MPs are told.
“The surest way to win is to show unity and focus on the issues that matter most to the people who put us in office – so back Boris Johnson today to move on and get on with the job.”
The anti-Boris briefing note
There is quite a bit more text on the anti-Johnson briefing note shared among rebels in recent days.
Following dismal polling for the upcoming Wakefield by-election, putting the Tories 20 points behind Labour, the rebels argue Johnson is “no longer an electoral asset and if left in post will lead the party to a substantial defeat in 2024”. They say Johnson will lose the Red Wall seats, and the party is particularly at risk from tactical voting.
Partygate and Johnson’s repeated denials of it represent a “major breach of trust” with the public, they argue. “Partygate is not going away,” they add.
Rebels also expressed concern over having to defend their leader so frequently.
“MPs are having to defend the indefensible, not for the sake of the party, but for one man,” they write. “He is the only minister given negative ratings by activists in the ConHome ratings, meaning he is dragging everyone else down.”
The rebels cite several polls showing poor predictions for a General Election result and unhappiness among Tory members and voters.
They go on: “The booing of Boris Johnson at the Jubilee Thanksgiving service tells us nothing that data does not. There is no social group that trusts him, with even 55% of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy.”
The authors add that even if Johnson wins Monday night’s vote, “his authority within the Commons and the Parliamentary Party would be destroyed”.
They also fear the investigation into Johnson by the Privileges Committee may not report until October, meaning partygate will be dragged on for many more months.
Cabinet rallies to Johnson’s defence
Despite the briefing notes, several high-ranking Cabinet members have indicated their support for their leader prior to the confidence poll.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack will support the Prime Minister. Jack, who has never wavered in his backing for Johnson during partygate, said he had “no doubt” that other Tory MPs will also back the Prime Minister and keep him in Downing Street.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps tweeted: “With the cost of living rising, war in Europe and an economy to recover after Covid, now is not the time for a distracting and divisive leadership contest.
“(Boris Johnson) has my support – we must back him to get on with the job of delivering for the British people.”
Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey tweeted: “PM has got the big calls right – Covid, Ukraine, jobs, levelling up mission, cost of living help (and) he got Brexit done.”
Communities Secretary Michael Gove voiced his support for the Prime Minister too, tweeting: “I’ll be voting for Boris this evening. The PM got the big decisions right on Brexit and Covid.
“We need to focus now on defending Ukraine, driving levelling-up and generating growth. We need to move past this moment and unite behind Boris to meet these challenges.”
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss tweeted: “The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today’s vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.
“He has delivered on Covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made. We must now focus on economic growth.”
And Conservative Party chairman Oliver Dowden tweeted: “I will be voting for Boris Johnson in the confidence vote tonight.
“He’s demonstrated real leadership in getting the big calls right as PM – Brexit, vaccines, reopening and Ukraine.
“I hope after this vote we can come together and focus on the future. Let’s face the big challenges united and focused on delivery.”
