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ABC News
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By North America correspondent Carrington Clarke and Cameron Schwarz in Atlanta 

Inflation triggered an interest rate rise in the US. That could lead to mortgage shock in Australia

As prices go up in Atlanta, Heather is contemplating the possibility of having to leave the city she loves.  (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz )

Heather Somerstein moved to Atlanta from New York City three years ago, partly in search of a more affordable lifestyle.

It was an unlucky choice for the consultant.

The southern city has the highest rate of inflation in the United States, which is itself experiencing the country's worst inflation in decades.

"I've never seen anything like it in my life," Heather said.

"Prices jumped so high, so fast."

Prices are rising quickly across the board as demand outstrips supply.

Heather said she had cut to back on coffee and change her brand of laundry detergent to save money.

"I actually got rid of my debit card and just went to cash," she said.

"So I know what I have and what I can afford."

Atlanta, once a relatively affordable city, is now one of the hottest real estate markets in the US.  (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz )

In many other ways, however, Atlanta is booming.

People are drawn to the city because of its healthy job prospects and strong economic growth.

But house prices and rents are soaring.

Heather said the city has become so expensive she may need to move again.

"If I decide to stay here, how much further are the prices going to go up?" she asked.

The US Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice

The US Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018 as it tries to tame an American economy that appears to be overheating.

Interest rate rises are big news for US businesses, but most households don't pay much attention because the majority of the country's mortgages are on fixed rates for their duration.

But Australians with mortgages are watching nervously to see where their rates — which are usually variable — might be heading.

Although the Reserve Bank doesn't need to follow the Federal Reserve in hiking rates, it often takes cues from its US counterpart, says former Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart.

"Every central bank makes its own decision based on its own economy," Mr Lockhart said.

Dennis Lockhart, former Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president, says inflation is a "stealth tax on everyone's life".  (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz)

"The more an economy is integrated in the global economy as an export economy, the more dependent it is on its exchange rate.

But even before the Australian Reserve Bank raises the official cash rate, Australians on variable rates are likely to see their repayments rise.

Australian banks borrow money in offshore markets, which means that as interest rates grind higher around the world, the borrowing costs go up.

Super low interest rates globally helped support economies through the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The cheap money helped support businesses and keep people employed but it also supported a staggering increase in asset prices around the world.

In Australia, residential property prices jumped by 23.7 per cent in the past 12 months, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

That's the fastest pace on record.

Meanwhile, the Australian stock market increased by 17.23 per cent over the year.

The tricky task of lowering inflation

Marietta Diner has been serving its version of American food — waffles, burgers and chicken wings — for 27 years.

The striking, neon-lit diner has weathered all sorts of economic headwinds, including government restrictions on businesses imposed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The owner of the Marietta Diner in Atlanta says the cost of running his business has entered unchartered territory.  (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz )

But owner Gus Teslios said the current price rises shock him each time he places an order.

"It alternates every week," he said.

"We get our pricing and some things will triple, some things will double. Nothing goes down." 

Gus said he has trying hard to keep his prices stable — even as his costs go up — and has given his staff a raise, knowing they're also under financial strain.

"We pass along raises to the employees," he said.

"Some things will triple, some things will double. Nothing goes down," says restaurant owner Gus Tselios of the cost of running his business.  (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz )

"And that kind of keeps the economy moving, because they go out and they participate in the economy too."

Even so, waitress Jessie Pate-Ellis said things are getting tougher.

"[Prices have] dramatically gone up within the last couple of months," she said.

"But honestly, it's been trickling upwards for over a year now.

The first sign of trouble was the cost of housing

One of the most dramatic price increases in Atlanta is in the cost of shelter.

In 2021, rents and house prices both increased in the city by around 20 per cent.

Jessie has rented the same place for several years and her rent has yet to increase, but she's worried about what might happen.

"When my lease came up in January, I was like, 'oh, yeah, I think it could easily go up $US500', and [the owners] would have the right to do that. They didn't. But will it [happen] next year? I don't know."

The population in Atlanta has doubled in the last three decades, putting intense demand on housing stock and driving up prices.  (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz )

Dennis Lockhart said the Federal Reserve is focused on inflation because it knows how dangerous and painful it can be.

He described inflation as a "stealth tax".

"[Inflation] is a debilitating loss of purchasing power that inevitably hits the most vulnerable the most," he said.

"And it tends to take on sometimes a life of its own. So that once it has been set off, and becomes persistent, it feeds on itself.

"And it ultimately undermines growth, and certainly undermines the welfare of people in the economy."

Although workers like those at Marietta Diner welcome wage increases, they can in turn lead to higher inflation.

Alicia works at a diner in Atlanta, the US city experiencing the steepest price rises in America.  (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz )

More money in people's pockets means they can spend more, which in turn leads to higher demand despite insufficient supply.

Unemployment in the United States is low and economic growth is strong.

The US central bank wants to tap the brakes but doesn't want to do it in a way that causes the economy to derail.

Putin's war risks causing stagflation 

The war in Ukraine makes the equation more complicated.

Financial sanctions on Russia are likely to feed even higher inflation and cause further interruptions to the supply of energy in the form of oil and gas as well as food.

Although the United States barely uses Russian oil, Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is still a big factor in the petrol price spike. 

It also risks substantially damaging economic growth, which could see the return of a nightmare scenario: stagflation.

"Stagflation was the result of a special set of circumstances that occurred in the 1970s and [were] very unusual and in many respects, almost a worst-case situation, where you have price pressures and inflation at the same time as you're in a recession," Mr Lockhart said.

"Those two things tend not to go together.

"Today, I would say you cannot rule out those set of circumstances coming together."

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