India’s inflation woes are not over yet but food price spikes may be “transitory”, the Finance Ministry said on August 22, attributing the latest spike in headline inflation to global uncertainties triggered by the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative that has upset wheat and edible oil supplies, as well as disruptions in domestic farm output.
The impact of the global disruptions was “clearly evident” in the sharp surge in the retail inflation pace in July to a 15-month high of 7.44%, the Ministry said, noting that the 11.5% food inflation rate was “perhaps the third highest” since the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) series began in 2014. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, was at a 39-month low of 4.9%, it emphasised.
The global uncertainty and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated for the coming months, warranting greater vigilance from the government and the central bank, the review stressed, underlining the need to bring the focus back on maintaining macroeconomic stability.
