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IndyCar: A closer look at Mick Schumacher's true pace

After four races in the IndyCar Series, Mick Schumacher’s best result so far is an 18th-place finish in Phoenix. With 31 total points, he is last in the overall standings and also trails the other rookies. Of course, the numbers only tell half the story, as some misfortune has hit Schumacher early in his IndyCar career. He never even completed a lap at St. Pete due to be collected in an opening lap crash.

But what can we learn from Schumacher's IndyCar lap times? He completed the full race distance at Arlington, Barber, and Phoenix, so there is plenty of data to look over.

So let's take a look at the top 60 percent of race laps from the races in Phoenix, Arlington, and Barber to answer the question of how fast Mick Schumacher has been racing so far.

Phoenix: Every start on an oval is tough

With his sensational fourth-place grid position, the son of Formula 1 legend Michael Schumacher likely raised expectations a bit too high. He attributed this success to a childlike carefree attitude on the oval—after all, as the first driver in qualifying, he had nothing to lose.

In the race, he was quickly dropped back to tenth place at the start, where he then settled in. The botched pit stop due to a faulty impact wrench then knocked him out of the lead lap. While a driver is allowed to defend against being lapped by the leader, he can no longer do so against other drivers. That’s why he had to let drivers pass him time and again.

Average lap times for top 150 laps at Phoenix Raceway:

1. Pato O'Ward - 23.2924 seconds

2. Christian Rasmussen - 23.3151

3. Josef Newgarden - 23.3283

...

20. Mick Schumacher - 23.7539

Phoenix average speed difference throughout the field

In these statistics, Schumacher finished ahead of his fellow rookies Caio Collet and Sting Ray Robb. Alex Palou and Louis Foster retired so early that they do not appear in these statistics.

Overall, Schumacher finished third from last in lap times. Given his strong qualifying performance and promising early laps, this is a slightly sobering result, even considering the fact that he was lapped.

Arlington: A missed opportunity

Schumacher was one of a few drivers in the field who were banking on a caution period. They did get one, but only at the very end of the race, when it was of no use to them. Schumacher and a few other drivers therefore pitted once more in the final laps to get fresh tires.

As a result, their cars were essentially in qualifying trim, and they would look better in the raw average statistics than they actually were. Therefore, we only considered the first 60 laps of the race to account for this third variable. Even so, Schumacher performed better than he did in Phoenix.

Average lap times for the best 36 laps at Streets of Arlington (Laps 1-60):

1. Kyle Kirkwood - 1:35.4578 minutes

2. Alex Palou - 1:35.7667

3. Marcus Ericsson - 1:35.7833

...

14. Mick Schumacher - 1:36.3436

Arlington average speed difference throughout the field

On average, Schumacher left eleven cars behind him. Of course, due to his early drive-through penalty, he had plenty of clear track while other cars were locked in battles. Nevertheless, the collision is more frustrating, because in terms of pure speed, Arlington was the race where Mick Schumacher could have made the biggest impact.

Barber: Hindered by strategy

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing’s (RLL) decision to send him out three times on the disadvantageous soft tires is also evident in the average lap times. Schumacher ranks third from last in the statistics.

Average lap times for the top 49 laps at Barber Motorsports Park:

1. Alex Palou - 1:09.3053 minutes

2. Christian Lundgaard - 1:09.3839

3. Graham Rahal - 1:09.4228

...

23. Mick Schumacher - 1:10.1779

Only Louis Foster and Sting Ray Robb were slower than Schumacher. Nevertheless, Robb finished ahead of Schumacher because Mick apparently stalled the engine during a pit stop, which the cameras did not capture.

Barber average speed difference throughout the field

In general, the lap times at Barber Motorsports Park largely correspond to the final standings because the race went off without a hitch and overtaking on the Alabama track is traditionally difficult. Had Schumacher made it into Q2, the race could have unfolded quite differently without much movement from the green flag to checkered flag. But he narrowly missed the cut.

Conclusion: Room for improvement

Overall, the Arlington race remains the one that offers some hope regarding Schumacher’s speed. In the other two races, he was at the very back of the field.

The lap times also show just how close the field is in the IndyCar Series. From first to last, the difference in average lap times is less than a second. Fractions of a second can mean entire rows on the grid in qualifying.

And there is still potential here: Schumacher isn’t far off. And as a rookie, he has far more room for growth than established drivers. His example also impressively demonstrates just how difficult it has become to break into America’s top formula series.

Translated from German

Appendix: Complete tables

Phoenix:

1. 5 - O'Ward, Pato - 23.2924 seconds

2. 21 - Rasmussen, Christian - 23.3151

3. 2 - Newgarden, Josef - 23.3283

4. 27 - Kirkwood, Kyle - 23.3360

5. 12 - Malukas, David - 23.3479

6. 20 - Rossi, Alexander - 23.3800

7. 26 - Power, Will - 23.4290

8. 15 - Rahal, Graham - 23.4314

9. 3 - McLaughlin, Scott - 23.4433

10. 66 - Armstrong, Marcus - 23.5015

11. 9 - Dixon, Scott - 23.5264

12. 7 - Lundgaard, Christian - 23.6237

13. 14 - Ferrucci, Santino - 23.6310

14. 60 - Rosenqvist, Felix - 23.6595

15. 19 - Hauger, Dennis (R) - 23.6840

16. 76 - VeeKay, Rinus - 23.6875

17. 28 - Ericsson, Marcus - 23.6877

18. 8 - Simpson, Kyffin - 23.6910

19. 6 - Siegel, Nolan - 23.7327

20. 47 - Schumacher, Mick (R) - 23.7539

21. 77 - Robb, Sting Ray - 23.8352

22. 4 - Collet, Caio (R) - 23.8734

Arlington:

1. 27 - Kirkwood, Kyle - 1:35.4578 minutes

2. 10 - Palou, Alex - 1:35.7667

3. 28 - Ericsson, Marcus - 1:35.7833

4. 5 - O'Ward, Pato - 1:35.9509

5. 9 - Dixon, Scott - 1:35.9782

6. 8 - Simpson, Kyffin - 1:36.0095

7. 12 - Malukas, David - 1:36.0671

8. 7 - Lundgaard, Christian - 1:36.1072

9. 66 - Armstrong, Marcus - 1:36.1808

10. 26 - Power, Will - 1:36.2102

11. 6 - Siegel, Nolan - 1:36.2343

12. 4 - Collet, Caio (R) - 1:36.2674

13. 19 - Hauger, Dennis (R) - 1:36.3143

14. 47 - Schumacher, Mick (R) - 1:36.3436

15. 45 - Foster, Louis - 1:36.3616

16. 76 - VeeKay, Rinus - 1:36.3885

17. 60 - Rosenqvist, Felix - 1:36.4157

18. 15 - Rahal, Graham - 1:36.4562

19. 3 - McLaughlin, Scott - 1:36.4767

20. 18 - Grosjean, Romain - 1:36.4880

21. 14 - Ferrucci, Santino - 1:36.5182

22. 2 - Newgarden, Josef - 1:36.5683

23. 20 - Rossi, Alexander - 1:36.6178

24. 21 - Rasmussen, Christian - 1:36.6286

25. 77 - Robb, Sting Ray - 1:36.7425

Barber:

1. 10 - Palou, Alex - 1:09.3053 minutes

2. 7 - Lundgaard, Christian - 1:09.3839

3. 15 - Rahal, Graham - 1:09.4228

4. 12 - Malukas, David - 1:09.5990

5. 27 - Kirkwood, Kyle - 1:09.6262

6. 66 - Armstrong, Marcus - 1:09.6568

7. 9 - Dixon, Scott - 1:09.6801

8. 14 - Ferrucci, Santino - 1:09.8180

9. 76 - VeeKay, Rinus - 1:09.8427

10. 28 - Ericsson, Marcus - 1:09.8485

11. 18 - Grosjean, Romain - 1:09.8808

12. 26 - Power, Will - 1:09.8977

13. 2 - Newgarden, Josef - 1:09.9160

14. 20 - Rossi, Alexander - 1:09.9329

15. 3 - McLaughlin, Scott - 1:09.9894

16. 5 - O'Ward, Pato - 1:09.9927

17. 8 - Simpson, Kyffin - 1:10.0076

18. 6 - Siegel, Nolan - 1:10.0127

19. 60 - Rosenqvist, Felix - 1:10.0179

20. 4 - Collet, Caio (R) - 1:10.0250

21. 21 - Rasmussen, Christian - 1:10.1198

22. 19 - Hauger, Dennis (R) - 1:10.1686

23. 47 - Schumacher, Mick (R) - 1:10.1779

24. 45 - Foster, Louis - 1:10.2078

25. 77 - Robb, Sting Ray - 1:10.2113

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