Following their third consecutive loss, the Indianapolis Colts sit at 4-6 on the year, yet somehow, their playoff hopes are still alive.
The Colts will enter Week 11 just one game out of the final AFC wildcard spot, and with a win over the New York Jets, Indianapolis’ playoff odds take a pretty big jump in the right direction.
The Jets, meanwhile, are 3-7 on the season, and despite having a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, they’ve obviously run into their own issues this season.
Each week and in each game, there are always some key matchups that seem to carry just a big more weight than others when it comes to determining the outcome of the game.
For the Colts in this game with the Jets, here are the three key matchups to watch for as it all unfolds.
Colts run defense vs. RB Breece Hall
While the Jets do have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, along with Garrett Wilson and Davnate Adams at receiver, I believe that a key element to limiting the Jets’ offense as a whole begins with slowing the run game.
Generally speaking, when an offense is struggling on the ground, it puts them behind the sticks and gives the defense the advantage, both from a coverage standpoint, and in this game specifically, the Colts pass rush can pin its ears back against a so-so Jets’ offensive line in pass protection.
On the flip side, however, if Hall gets going, and the Jets are living in short down-and-distance situations, that opens up the playbook for them, and makes the already difficult task of defending Wilson and Adams even more challenging.
Hall will enter the game with 554 rushing yards at 4.1 yards per attempt. Although the run defense was a major problem for the Colts early on, like the rest of the defense, they’ve improved over the last month in that regard.
Rookie OL Tanor Bortolini and Dalton Tucker vs. Quinnen Williams
Quinnen Williams is one of the most disruptive defensive tackles in football. According to PFF’s metrics, Williams ranks fifth among all defensive tackles in pressures, he’s fifth in sacks, and fourth in pass-rush productivity.
Bortolini has performed quite well when called upon this season. He ranks sixth among centers in pass-blocking efficiency and is 15th in run-blocking grade. Tucker, meanwhile, has gone through some growing pains this season at right guard.
Williams will provide perhaps the toughest test for either player up to this point in their young careers.
With Anthony Richardson at quarterback, there is now added mobility at the position for the Colts, but the best way to wreck any offensive play, whether that be a run or pass, is with a quick push from up the middle, which Williams can certainly provide.
Colts WRs vs. Jets CBs
Success for the Colts’ offense often starts with the run game, and while getting Richardson back should provide that element with a boost, those yards on the ground might not come easy this week for Indianapolis.
The Jets will enter this game allowing a modest 4.3 yards per rush and rank sixth in ESPN’s run-stop win rate metric. The trickle-down effect of the run game not being able to find steady success is an added burden on the passing game-.
With Richardson at quarterback specifically, the Colts have been a very good downfield passing team, but have struggled to find consistency on the short to intermediate routes. Across from the Colts’ pass catchers will be DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner at cornerback–both of whom are allowing completion rates below 60 percent this season.
Every offense wants to avoid becoming one-dimensional, so for the Colts passing game, that means being able to move the ball through the air, to some degree. If not, then the Jets can devote an additional defender or two to stopping Jonathan Taylor and the run game.
