A little late this week so let’s not beat around the bush. Let’s talk about the Indianapolis Colts’ passing game.
After a pretty good week last week, the numbers here don’t paint a great picture. Richardson clocks in with a 39.3% completion percentage and 6.1 YPA. Pretty bad!
Some of the advanced numbers don’t look much better. PFF charted his receivers with 2 drops and 3 throwaways. Throw in a batted ball and his adjusted completion percentage was 56.5%. Certainly better than 39.3% (math!), but sub-60% is generally frowned-upon.
As I’ve mentioned many times, PFF is notoriously charitable to wide receivers when it comes to drops. It’s subjective to be sure, but I almost always chart 2-3 more drops per game than PFF, and that was true here. That’s without even mentioning that one of those drops was a surefire TD, which makes the numbers look better (even if the adjusted completion percentage would have stayed the same).
All that about the numbers looking better if he got a little help is true, but also Richardson was dealing when he was clean. In this game, Richardson was kept clean on 56.7% of his dropbacks. On those dropbacks, he averaged 2.15 seconds to get rid of the ball, completing 62.5% of his passes (75% completion percentage) and 163 yards (10.2 YPA).
It was the under pressure stuff that killed him. He was under pressure on 43.3% of his dropbacks, completing an abysmal 8.3% of his passes (14.3% adjusted) for 9 yards (0.8 YPA). He averaged 3.48 seconds on those, which feels right; while some of that pressure was on the line, Richardson is certainly at fault with some of those pressures by holding onto the ball too long. Some of those numbers may look worse than other QBs, simply because Richardson fights like crazy not to take a sack, resulting in some less-than-ideal passes in those situations, which causes the completion percentage to take a hit.
As he has done all season, Richardson was chucking in this game, with an ADOT (Average Depth of Target) of 14.1 yards. Even though that’s a high number, that’s only the 4th highest ADOT in a game of Richardson’s season. On the season overall, Richardson has the highest ADOT in the league among regular starters at 12.9. Jameis Winston is 2nd with an ADOT of 10.6. That gap of 2.3 yards is the gap as it is from Winston at #2 to Dak Prescott, CJ Stroud and Joe Burrow at #14 (8.3 ADOT).
That’s a long way to say that Richardson is throwing deeper than any other QB in the league on a regular basis and it’s not particularly close.
Overall, not the cleanest game from Richardson, but he played much better than the numbers (even some of the advanced numbers) suggest. There are going to be bumps in the road, but, against a good Lions defense, I came away much more optimistic about how he looked than I did while watching it live.
Alright let’s look at a play before we get out of here. It’s in incomplete pass because of course it is, but it’s a concept I’ve been wanting to bring up in this space all season, so now is the time I guess.
I have not charted every passing play yet (slacker, I know), but this is one the Colts seem to run at least once per game. It’s almost always open, but the hit rate has been low because the throw is either off target or the ball is dropped. If they can ever get synced up on this, they’re going to absolutely eat.
It’s a simple, two-man concept off play action. The Colts go heavy in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), with both TEs in-line on the right in a YY Wing look. Richardson is in shotgun/pistol, with Jonathan Taylor [28] aligned behind him. They go play action, then release Alec Pierce [14] and Michael Pittman [11] into their routes.
Pittman is running an intermediate in-cutter, while Pierce is running a big crosser over the top. The Lions are showing a two-high safety look pre-snap, but they rotate into a single-high look post-snap. That’s perfect for where the Colts are trying to attack.
Pierce gets an inside release at the line and fights to maintain that up the field. With the safety dropping down over Pittman, that leaves an ocean of space for Pierce.
Richardson hangs onto this ball for a beat too long. He checks the safety and knows he has Pierce, but hesitates to throw until Pierce is a little further into the route. D.J. Reader [98] is pushing from the interior of the line, and that little hesitation by Richardson allows Reader to make contact as the ball is coming out.
It’s a nice-looking throw, but just a little too deep for Pierce. Pierce lays out and tries to bring this in, but it’s just slightly too deep.
Like I said, the Colts run this a lot and Pierce is almost always open. If they can get the timing just a bit better, it’ll be huge for them.
Albums listened to: Tom Waits – Small Change; Tiny Deaths – If I’m Dreaming
