The Indiana legislature’s rejection of a new map that would have added two Republican seats in Congress marked one of the biggest political defeats for Donald Trump so far in his second term and significantly damaged the Republican effort to reconfigure congressional districts ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
The defeat showed that Trump’s political might is not unlimited. For months, the president waged an aggressive effort to twist the arms of Indiana lawmakers into supporting a new congressional map, sending JD Vance to meet in person with lawmakers. Trump allies also set up outside groups to pressure state lawmakers.
Heritage Action, the political arm of the Heritage Foundation, which has close ties to the Trump administration, issued a dramatic threat this week ahead of the vote: if the new map wasn’t passed, Indiana would lose federal funding. “Roads will not be paved. Guard bases will close. Major projects will stop. These are the stakes and every NO vote will be to blame,” the group posted on X. The state’s Republican lieutenant governor said in a since-deleted X post that Trump administration officials made the same threat.
All of that may have backfired, as Republican state senators publicly said they were turned off by the threats and weathered death threats and swatting attempts as they voted the bill down.
“You wouldn’t change minds by being mean. And the efforts were mean-spirited from the get-go,” Jean Leising, an Indiana Republican state senator who voted against the bill, told CNN. “If you were wanting to change votes, you would probably try to explain why we should be doing this, in a positive way. That never happened, so, you know, I think they get what they get.”
Nationally, the defeat complicates the picture for Republicans as they seek to redraw districts to shore up their majority in an increasingly messy redistricting battle. The effort began earlier this year when Trump pushed Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional map to pick up GOP seats, a highly unusual move since redistricting is usually done once at the start of the decade.
“This isn’t the first time a Republican state legislature has resisted pressure from the White House, but it is the most significant, both because of the over-the-top tactics President Trump and speaker Johnson employed, and also the fact that there were two seats on the line,” said Dave Wasserman, an expert in US House races who writes for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. “It changes the trajectory of this redistricting war from the midpoint of possible outcomes being a small, being a modest Republican gain to a wash.”
Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California have both redrawn their maps to add as many as five seats for their respective parties, cancelling each other out. Republicans in North Carolina and Missouri have also redrawn their congressional districts to add one Republican seat apiece in each of those states. The Missouri map, however, may be blocked by a voter initiated referendum (Republicans are maneuvering to undercut the initiative). Democrats are also poised to pick up a seat in Utah after a court ruling there (state lawmakers are seeking a way around the ruling).
Ohio also adopted a new map that made one Democratic district more competitive, and made a new Democratic friendly and Republican friendly district out of two different competitive districts.
The biggest remaining opportunity to pick up seats for Democrats is in Virginia, where they currently represent six of the state’s 11 congressional districts. Don Scott, the House speaker, has said Democrats are considering adding a map that adds four Democratic seats in the state. Republicans could counter that in Florida with a new congressional map that could add as many as five Republican seats. There is also pending litigation challenging a favorable GOP congressional map in Wisconsin.
The close tit-for-tat has placed even more significance on a supreme court case from Louisiana that could wind up gutting a key provision in the Voting Rights Act that prevents lawmakers from drawing districts that weaken the influence of Black voters. After oral argument, the court appeared poised to significantly curtail the measure, which could pave the way for Louisiana, Alabama, and other southern states to wipe out districts currently represented by Democrats. It’s unclear if the supreme court will issue its decision in time for the midterm elections.
“The timing of that decision is a huge deal with two to four seats on the line,” Wasserman said. “We haven’t seen the last plot twist in this redistricting war, but the outlook is less rosy for Republicans than it was at the start.”
