India will hold the first legislative elections in a decade in the restive region of Kashmir, which lost its semi-autonomy and came under direct federal rule in 2019.
The elections, scheduled in three stages starting on 18 September, will allow nine million voters to elect representatives to the 90-member state legislature. Results will be announced on 4 October, said chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar.
“After a long gap, elections are due and will be held in Jammu and Kashmir,” Kumar said in Delhi.
The polls come after a prolonged period of uncertainty, following the region's 2019 loss of statehood and the special privileges guaranteed under Article 370 of the Indian constitution.
The announcement of the elections has sparked a significant administrative reshuffle.
Approximately 200 officials, including Kashmir's police and intelligence chiefs, were transferred after the election date was confirmed on 16 August.
Opposition parties allege the reshuffle could benefit India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming vote.
“We are writing to the Election Commission to investigate these transfers in Jammu and Kashmir,” said Omar Abdullah, a former state chief minister.
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Court-mandated vote
The elections are being held after the Supreme Court set a 30 September deadline for the vote in Kashmir, where an insurgency has claimed around 80,000 lives since 1989.
Despite upholding the 2019 abrogation of Article 370, the court’s ruling has forced the BJP government to allow these elections.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi defended the 2019 decision, stating it removed “unjust” laws and paved the way for peace and progress in the troubled region.
He also noted that recent village and district-level elections have helped establish democracy in Kashmir.
Restoring statehood?
Peerzada Irshad Ahmad Shah, head of the political science faculty at Kashmir University, said many people hope the elections will restore statehood and autonomy.
“They are hopeful a popular government might give new hope to the people by asking the centre to grant us our statehood back,” Shah told RFI from Srinagar, the region’s capital.
“That is our dream."
Shah also pointed to high unemployment in Kashmir, which reached 18.3 percent last year, and expressed hope that the new government might implement reforms to create jobs.
Former chief minister Omar Abdullah echoed this sentiment, saying one of the elected government’s main tasks would be to restore full statehood.
“Only as a state will we be able to start undoing some of the damage done to Jammu and Kashmir after 2019,” he said.
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Strategic importance
Lieutenant General Syed Ata Hasnain, a retired military commander of Kashmir, said the elections would bolster India’s regional influence.
“A successful assembly election actually conveys the message that the people of Kashmir are with us and want to be part of us,” he said.
Hasnain noted that insurgency in Kashmir has largely retreated to forested areas, with 36 people, including 19 soldiers, killed in attacks this year.
The region remains heavily militarised, with thousands of troops patrolling the 1,222-kilometre border with Pakistan, making it one of the world’s most militarised zones.
India administers two-thirds of Kashmir, while Pakistan occupies the northern tip. The two nuclear-armed rivals have fought three wars since their 1947 independence, two of which were over Kashmir.
As the elections approach, analyst Shah expects the BJP to seek local alliances in Kashmir.
“Local alliances might emerge, which would benefit the BJP, knowing it cannot win seats by itself in the Muslim-majority valley,” he said.
In 2015, the BJP formed a coalition with a regional Kashmiri party, but the alliance collapsed in 2018, leading to the imposition of direct federal rule.
The upcoming elections will be a critical test of whether Modi’s reforms have gained support in the region or if Kashmir’s electorate will push back against the changes.
