US-India relations have improved since last year's tariff onslaught and political troubles. Activity at the functional level is substantial, especially in the defence arena with a new 10-yr framework agreement signed and sale of anti-tank Javelin missiles underway. Indian exports to the US grew by 5.5%, reaching nearly $60 bn in the first 9 mths of FY26.
But there's trouble too. Delhi doesn't have a real sense of what the contours of US policy are towards India, especially after a top State Department official publicly declared in March that the US would not 'make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago... let you develop all these markets and then the next thing we know you're beating us in a lot of commercial things.' The statement lit a spark, and everyone was ready to believe the worst.
