Even before India’s six-week general election has run its course, Hindu nationalists are confident the polls will result in a rare third term in office for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its leader Narendra Modi. But the opposition says the incumbents will face stiff competition in the final two rounds of voting, which begin on Saturday.
With votes yet to be counted, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a coalition led by the BJP, says it is counting on a landslide victory in parliament’s 543-seat lower house.
“After the fifth phase of the polls, the NDA has already bagged 310 seats,” India’s Home Minister Amit Shah announced after more than 400 constituencies had voted in a process that began on 19 April.
Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Modi, said the alliance expected to hold more than 400 seats by the time voters had cast their ballots in the sixth and seventh rounds of the polls, set for 25 May and 1 June.
Yet the opposition says the final two rounds could dash the BJP’s hopes.
“The strongholds of the BJP have shown a minimal turnout and a significant drop in voting figures,” said Shashi Tharoor, a prominent MP for main opposition party the Indian National Congress.
“It is not good news for the government. We are on a positive trajectory going into the last two phases,” Tharoor insisted at a press briefing this week.
Modi in the balance
When voting began in April, the BJP was confident of winning three-quarters of all seats. But after the first two rounds of voting, analysts scaled down the projection to 362.
A further slide could raise questions over Modi’s enduring appeal to voters after 10 years as prime minister.
“Wherever Modi shows his face his votes will shrink,” Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera said. “He is no more an asset for the BJP but a liability.”
Modi hit back, claiming that the rival Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – the Congress-led coalition that rallied this year as a counter to the BJP – stood totally discredited and dejected.
But the campaign has been marked by anti-BJP protests in some states, spurred by spiralling unemployment and inflation.
On Saturday, the BJP will also face off against the Aam Aadmi Party for the seven seats of Delhi, where it failed to dislodge the anti-corruption movement from the city legislature even after arresting several members of its top leadership.
Heatwave alert
Turnout in the first four rounds of voting averaged 66 percent, but bad weather and polling fatigue could see that figure drop in the remaining 115 constituencies.
In the fifth leg of the polls, held on Monday, turnout was down to 62 percent.
Analysts said a worsening heatwave could keep elderly voters indoors during the two final rounds.
Temperatures of 46 degrees Celsius are forecast in Delhi on Saturday, when voters in the capital and two adjoining states will place their ballots.
Heat Wave Alert: A significant heat wave is likely to occur over northern India during the next two weeks. Temperatures may reach 45-49 degrees in parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat. Stay safe. pic.twitter.com/mybKrXNGCl
— 𝐃𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐊𝐮𝐬𝐡𝐰𝐚𝐡𝐚 (@pkusrain) May 18, 2024
Hospitals in Delhi have stocked up on supplies, while officials shut schools and sounded a “red alert” for the next few days in northern India.
“It seems the BJP planned the election schedule to coincide with the annual heatwave in mind,” said opposition candidate Akhilesh Yadav, former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the populous northern state where Modi is banking on winning most of its 80 seats to stay in power.
The results for all seven rounds of voting will be announced on 4 June.
