India, traditionally reluctant to engage with the Taliban, recently hedged its bets by initiating contact—with Qatar’s support. But unlike many in the West, India’s leadership is not buying into the narrative of Kabul’s impending fall and the Taliban’s immediate and inevitable return to power. Instead, New Delhi insists how the Taliban gain power in Afghanistan is important. India has made it clear it will not accept the Taliban’s violent overthrow of the Kabul government and has engaged in a flurry of diplomacy to prepare for the region’s post-U.S. order.
India’s position on the transition’s legitimacy to a new order in Afghanistan—that it must necessarily involve a peaceful political reconciliation—is based, in turn, on New Delhi’s assessment of the ground situation in the country. Although the Taliban have gained considerable territory amid the accelerated withdrawal of U.S. forces, the Indian government is betting Afghanistan’s endgame is not at hand—at least, not yet. At the very least, there is still time for outside powers to influence the outcome.
