MUMBAI : India is likely to get average monsoon rains this year, a private weather forecasting agency said on Tuesday, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy.
Monsoon rains are expected to be 98% of the long-term average, and there is a 65% chance that India will get average rainfall, Skymet said.
Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 98% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average of 880.6mm for the 4- month long period from June to September. In its earlier preliminary forecast released on February 21, 2022, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2022 to be ‘normal’ and now retains the same, spread of normal rainfall being 96-104% of LPA.
According to Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet, “The last 2 monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events. Earlier, La Nina had started shrinking sharply in winters, but its fallback has been stalled on account of the strengthening of trade winds. Though passed its peak, La Nina cooling of the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail till, short of the onset of southwest monsoon. Therefore, the occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out. However, pulsating behavior of the monsoon is expected to transpire abrupt and intense rains, interspersed by abnormally long dry spells".
Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, albeit having a propensity of -ve inclination closer to the threshold margins. Monsoon will have to ride over ENSO - neutral conditions, while battling resistance from IOD, especially during 2nd half of the season. This possibly can lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution.
In terms of geographical risks, Skymet expects Rajasthan and Gujarat along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura of the northeast region to be at risk of being rain deficit throughout the season. Also, the state of Kerala and North Interior Karnataka will witness scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August. Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, the agriculture bowl of North India, and rainfed areas of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will witness above normal rainfall. The 1st half of the season is expected to fare better than the latter.
