Summary
Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) looks likely to lose its parliamentary majority, dealing an unexpected blow to the Indian prime minister as voters defied predictions of another landslide for the BJP. It is the first time since Modi was elected in 2014 that the BJP has not won a clear majority on its own.
Modi instead will be forced to negotiate with coalition partners in order to return to power. The BJP and its political allies, known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), have enough seats to form a majority government to rule for the next five years and return Modi to office for a third term.
Modi, in a victory speech, insisted he had been given a mandate to lead again. “Our third term will be one of big decisions and the country will write a new chapter of development. This is Modi’s guarantee,” he told a crowd of cheering supporters in the capital, New Delhi.
BJP officials were insistent it would form the next government and denied any setback. “The NDA will form the government for the third time. Prime Minister Modi will be sworn in for the third time. Congress will sit in opposition for the third time,” said Jaiveer Shergill, a spokesperson for the BJP.
The opposition alliance, which goes by the acronym India, far outperformed expectations, despite grappling with state agencies freezing party funds and jailing opposition leaders in the buildup to the polls. The alliance, formed of more than 20 national and regional opposition parties, had come together for the first time in this election with the aim of defeating Modi.
The results were a particular triumph for the main opposition party and the BJP’s main rival, Indian National Congress, which dramatically lost the previous two elections to Modi and was facing questions about its future as a party. This time it appeared the Congress party had more than doubled its seats. “The country has said to Narendra Modi ’We don’t want you,’” key leader Rahul Gandhi told reporters.
Updated
Narendra Modi has claimed he has won a third term in office but projections show his party is unlikely to win an outright majority.
Nonetheless, India has placed its faith in the ruling coalition for a third consecutive time.
India’s prime minister said the country people “have expressed full confidence in BJP and NDA”, referring to the Bharatiya Janata party and its allies.
For the first time in a decade, Modi’s BJP failed to secure an overall majority of its own, figures from the election commission showed, meaning it would need to rely on its alliance partners.
Updated
Smriti Irani, the BJP’s prominent minister of women and child development, has lost her seat in Uttar Pradesh.
Irani has been beaten in the Amethi constituency by Kishori Lal Sharma of the Congress party. Formerly an actress, she famously defeated Rahul Gandhi in 2019 to gain the Amethi constituency.
I humbly thank the people of Bharat for reaffirming their faith in the NDA led by Prime Minister Shri @NarendraModi ji for the third consecutive term.
— Smriti Z Irani (Modi Ka Parivar) (@smritiirani) June 4, 2024
A decade of tireless effort put into fulfilling the dreams & aspirations of over 140 crore Indians has paid off with a historic…
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), one of the key regional allies in Narendra Modi’s coalition, has reportedly said that it does not want Amit Shah to remain home affairs minister under a new government.
Election analyst Shivam Shankar Singh writes that this means that there will either be no government under Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), or no Shah as home minister.
From reliabie sources, TDPs firm condition, amongst others, is no Amit Shah as Home Minister.
— Shivam Shankar Singh (@ShivamShankarS) June 4, 2024
So it's either no BJP govt, or no Amit Shah. Let's see...
The TDP, based in the southern coastal state of Andhra Pradesh, is currently the second-biggest party in Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), after the BJP.
As we reported earlier, the TDP endorsed Modi as India’s next prime minister, saying that its alliance with the BJP and Janata Dal (United) was intact amid media speculation that the opposition alliance was also in touch with them.
Updated
Amritpal Singh, a self-styled radical Sikh preacher who was jailed on terrorism charges last year, has won a seat in the state of Punjab with more than 400,000 votes.
Singh, 31, is in a high security prison in the eastern state of Assam, nearly 3,000km (1,900 miles) away from his constituency of Khadoor Sahib in the north-western state of Punjab, where he ran as an independent.
Last year, Singh became a prominent figure in the separatist Khalistan movement, outlawed in India, which believes Punjab should be an independent state for Sikhs. After being implicated in incidents of violence, he went on the run from the authorities, prompting a statewide manhunt. He was eventually apprehended.
Singh’s lawyer, Imaan Singh Khara, said the victory was a sign of public anger over the “injustice” of his incarceration, Reuters reported.
Singh’s father Tarsem, 61, said:
He’s got all the blessings. We will try to meet him in prison in the coming days and wish that he is also freed soon.
His mother, Balwinder Kaur, told reporters:
I sincerely thank all the supporters from the bottom of my heart. Our victory is dedicated to the martyrs.
Updated
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has conceded defeat in the Faizabad constituency, which includes the city of Ayodhya, where a controversial Hindu temple built on the ruins of a historic mosque was opened by Modi earlier this year.
The opening of the temple dedicated to Hinduism’s Lord Ram, on a site previously contested by India’s minority Muslims, fulfilled a long-standing BJP promise which portrayed the temple as central to their vision of reclaiming Hindu pride.
The BJP looks set for heavy losses in the bellwether northern state of Uttar Pradesh.
Lallu Singh, the BJP’s incumbent lawmaker from Faizabad, conceded his party’s defeat as he addressed staff:
I could not protect your and Ayodhya’s dignity, there must have been some shortcoming in me.
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As Narendra Modi claimed victory for his alliance, congratulations began rolling in from leaders from India’s neighbouring countries.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepal’s prime minister, said he was “happy to note the successful completion of the world’s largest democratic exercise”.
Congratulations to PM @narendramodi on the electoral success of BJP and NDA in the Loksabha elections for the third consecutive term. We are happy to note the successful completion of the world’s largest democratic exercise with enthusiastic participation of the people of India.
— ☭ Comrade Prachanda (@cmprachanda) June 4, 2024
Tshering Tobgay, the prime minister of Bhutan, said he looks forward to working closely with “my friend” Modi to further strengthen the relations between the two countries.
Congratulations to my friend PM @narendramodi ji and NDA for the historic 3rd consecutive win in the world’s biggest elections. As he continues to lead Bharat to great heights, I look forward to working closely with him to further strengthen the relations between our 2 countries.
— Tshering Tobgay (@tsheringtobgay) June 4, 2024
Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka’s president, extended his “warmest felicitations” to the NDA alliance, adding that the results demonstrated “the confidence of the Indian people in the progress and prosperity under the leadership” of Modi.
Pravind Jugnauth, the Mauritian prime minister, congratulated Modi on his “laudable victory”.
Congratulations Prime Minister Modi Ji @narendramodi on your laudable victory for a historic third term.
— Pravind Kumar Jugnauth (@KumarJugnauth) June 4, 2024
Under your helm, the largest democracy will continue to achieve remarkable progress.
Long live the Mauritius-India special relationship.
Updated
The US applauded India’s government for completing a major election undertaking, a statement from the White House has said.
John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesperson, also praised the Indian people for voicing their desires and “participating in a very vibrant democratic process”, Reuters reported.
Kirby added that the US looks forward to seeing the final election results.
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Updated
Modi says India will 'write a new chapter of big decisions'
Narendra Modi, in his speech at the BJP headquarters, promised to write a “new chapter of big decisions” after declaring victory for his coalition alliance.
The Indian prime minister praised his country’s election process, saying that “every Indian feels proud because of it", the BBC reported.
I will say to every voter of the country on this moment of victory, I want to to bow down and salute them.
Modi said that since 1962, no government has won a third term, adding that his BJP party’s vote had doubled in some areas, including in Delhi, where he said the party has achieved a “clean sweep”, the outlet said.
He pledged not to shirk from pushing forward with his agenda, and said that he would “work at faster pace in electronics, semiconductors and defence manufacturing”, Reuters reported. He added:
This country will write a new chapter of big decisions. This is Modi’s guarantee.
Narendra Modi is addressing his supporters at his party’s headquarters in New Delhi, where he is claiming victory in the country’s general election.
Speaking before Modi, J P Nadda, the BJP’s party chief, said Modi would be the prime minister for a historic third term.
Modi, in his first speech since early election results came out, said he was “very, very happy today”, adding:
Our citizens in India have full faith in the party, and today’s victory is a victory of the people.
He hailed the country’s administration of the “world’s largest election”.
“Long Live Modi,” and “Long Live the BJP,” the audience is chanting, amid waving flags and confetti.
Updated
We’re waiting to hear from India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, who is due to speak from his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi.
We’ll bring you what he says when he begins his speech.
Narendra Modi claims third term but projections show party unlikely to win outright majority
India has placed its faith in the ruling coalition “for a third consecutive time”, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, wrote on X, referring to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies.
“We will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people.”
People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India’s history.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) June 4, 2024
I bow to the Janata Janardan for this affection and assure them that we will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of…
For the first time in a decade Modi’s BJP failed to secure an overall majority of its own, figures from the election commission showed, meaning it would need to rely on its alliance partners. Modi is expected to speak at the BJP headquarters in Delhi shortly.
Updated
Here is a graph showing the seats won by major political parties (Bharatiya Janata party, the Indian National Congress, also known as the Congress Party or simply the Congress, and “others”) in Indian general elections since 1962:
Updated
The opposition, INDIA alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi’s centrist Congress party, appeared to far outperform expectations, leading in just over 230 seats.
Congress alone was leading in nearly 100 seats, almost double the 52 it won in 2019.
“The country has unanimously and clearly stated, we do not want Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to be involved in the running of this country, we do not like the way they have run this country,” Gandhi told reporters, referring to Modi’s powerful number two, interior minister Shah. “That is a huge message.”
Shah is often referred to as the second most powerful man in India after the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and the pair have been close political allies for decades.
Gandhi said Congress would hold talks with its allies on Wednesday and decide on the future course of action, when asked if the opposition would try to form a government.
Updated
India vote count shows Modi's alliance winning surprisingly narrow majority
Narendra Modi’s alliance is heading for a narrow majority as vote-counting in the general election nears completion, according to initial results and projections.
By early Tuesday afternoon, with half of the 640m votes counted, initial results showed Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its political allies had won 290 seats, enough to form a majority government to rule for the next five years, but a decline on their 2019 victory.
The BJP was on course to lose almost 70 constituencies, winning just 240 seats, meaning it will have to rely on its alliance partners to achieve the 272 majority.
We have some quotes from Jaiveer Shergill, a spokesperson for the BJP.
“The NDA will form the government for the third time. PM Modi will be sworn-in for the third time. Congress will sit in opposition for the third time,” Shergill said, referring to the main opposition Congress party.
“Introspection about the slide and the decrease in the seats will be done threadbare. We will put our ear to the ground,” he said.
Two key regional allies in the NDA endorsed Modi as the next prime minister, rejecting local media speculation that they could be wavering in their support or possibly switch sides.
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata dal (United) said their pre-poll alliance with BJP was intact and they would form the next government.
The BJP’s numbers were likely pulled down by the party’s poor showing in the country’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, which also sends 80 lawmakers to parliament.
The party was leading in 33 seats in the state, down from the 62 it won there in 2019, with analysts saying bread-and-butter issues had overshadowed the BJP’s appeal to the Hindu majority.
Reporting from Delhi for the BBC, Raghvendra Rao says that BJP officials were sanguine about the result. He told viewers celebrations at the party headquarters were “a bit muted”, with nothing like the size of the crowds seen on counting days at Narendra Modi’s previous election wins.
He said: “We’ve been speaking to party leaders, and privately they did admit that the results may not be exactly what they had thought of. But they say a win is a win, and they’ll grab it with both hands.”
Results in the election in India have given supporters of different parties across the country cause to celebrate.
Congress party leaders: Modi has suffered 'moral and political defeat'
Rahul Gandhi has said that Congress leaders would meet their alliance partners tomorrow to decide on their next steps. The Congress party has performed better than expected, and he did not appear to rule out his own attempt to form a government by peeling away parties from Narendra Modi’s alliance.
He said their campaign had not just been against the BJP, to save the country’s constitution, which he accused Modi of trying to destroying. “The country has unanimously told Narendra Modi and Amit Shah that we don’t want you running this country,” he said.
Congress party president Mallikarjun Kharge said Modi had suffered a “moral and political defeat”.
He told a press conference “We focused our fight on the unemployed, the farmers and the poor of this country. The BJP, meanwhile, spread lies and hatred, running a vicious campaign. People have rejected that.”
131 seats have been declared by the Election Comission of India, with Narendra Modi’s BJP party taking 78, and the Congress party taking 33. 20 seats have been divided among another 17 parties.
The projected final tally at present is:
BJP 241 seats
Congress 98
Samajwadi 37
All India Trinamool Congress 29
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 22
Telugu Desam 16
Others
272 seats are required for a majority. Telugu Desam and Janata Dal (United) who are expected to get 28 seats between them, have said they will back Modi’s BJP in government which would get them three shy of that figure.
Narendra Modi endorsed for India's prime minister by two alliance parties
Reuters reports that two key regional allies in Narendra Modi’s coalition have endorsed him as India’s next prime minister, their spokespeople said on Tuesday, after trends showed Modi’s party was falling short of a majority in a general election.
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) said their pre-poll alliance with Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was intact and they would form the next government.
Their comments came after local media speculation that the opposition alliance, which is doing much better than expected, was also in touch with them.
There are early indications that the Congress Party is regaining a foothold in Northeastern India.
The region was expected to be an easy win for the ruling BJP but the BBC is reporting that the Congress Party is poised to send one MP from Nagaland and two from Manipur to parliament.
Manipur has voted overwhelmingly in the opposition party’s favour, while in Assam BJP is leading in nine of 14 seats.
Here are some of the latest images coming out from the election in India.
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has won his seat in Varanasi, defeating Congress’s Ajay Rai by a margin of more than 152,000 votes.
While his party, the BJP, is not doing as well as hoped, the data suggests he has won easily in his own constituency.
Updated
Dr Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow at Chatham House has said that Narendra Modi’s failure to secure the large majoirty he was seeking may damage his brand and might temper some of the policies he pursues. He said:
This may restrain some of the BJP’s more controversial identity-driven politics, but it will also make it more difficult to make progress on some of the more politically sensitive reforms, for instance labour reforms and land acquisition. This explains the fall in India’s stock market as the results are being announced.
In regard to foreign policy, the Modi government has projected an image of India as a rising and more confident power. Some of this relates to India’s material accomplishments, with India on course to be world’s third largest economy by the end of this decade. However, there is also an ideological angle as the Modi government pursues a more assertive foreign policy and seeks to promote India as a civilizational state.
All of this will continue under a third term Modi government, although it will be tempered by its weaker mandate.”
Suresh Gopi, the local film star who won BJP’s first ever seat in Kerala, has spoken about his historic victory.
In a gushing interview with the Times of India, he said of winning in Thrissur: “I am in totally an ecstatic mood. What was very impossible became gloriously possible...it was not a 62-day campaign process, it was an emotional carriage for the past 7 years.”
The win is a significant one for the BJP, giving them a first foothold in the affluent educated southern state. Kerala has previously been known for being a bastion of left wing politics.
Expressing his admiration for the prime minister, Narendra Modi, Gopi said: “Narendra Modi is my political God... I am not believing in just a manifesto.”
To find out more about how he did it, this dispatch from Tamil Nadu and Kerala includes reporting with Suresh Gopi on the campaign trail.
Sanjay Singh of the Aam Aadmi Party has told the media that today’s results showed the people had voted against “hatred and dictatorship”.
The Times of India quotes him saying “The election results are unfolding today, and the picture is becoming clearer. These elections are a message from the public that they are tired of the BJP’s 10-year rule and want a change.”
He suggested Narendra Modi should consider stepping down after he failed to win by the expected margin. Aam Aadmi is expected to finish with three seats in the new Lok Sabha.
Early leads by India’s election commission projected Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP was leading in 25 of 26 seats in the prime minister’s home state of Gujarat. But party leaders said they were not celebrating victory due to a recent blaze at an amusement park in the state that killed 27 people, including children.
Associated Press reports that C R Patil, a senior leader from Modi’s party, said “We had decided that there will be no celebratory victory or beating of drums. So we are not celebrating.”
26 seats have been declared now. Narendra Modi’s BJP party have won 17 of them and are projected now to win 244 seats in total. That will make it the largest party, but is short of the 272 needed to form an absolute majority.
A politician from Kashmir who has been in New Delhi’s Tihar Jail since 2019 in a terror funding case has won after his rival conceded defeat.
Assocaited Press reports Sheikh Abdul Rashid from northern Baramulla constituency won as an independent candidate, beating former chief minister of the region Omar Abdullah.
“I think it’s time to accept the inevitable,” Abdullah posted to social media. “I don’t believe his victory will hasten his release from prison nor will the people of North Kashmir get the representation they have a right to but the voters have spoken and in a democracy that’s all that matters.”
Rashid’s campaign was run by his two sons, hoping a win for him would lead to his release from prison.
More results are trickling through as declared now, with the early party standings being three seats each for the BJP and Congress, two for the Janata Dal (Secular) party and one seat for the Aam Aadmi party.
At present the Election Commission of India has Narenra Modi’s BJP party as winning the most seats, with it in front in 240 constituencies. Indian National Congress would be the largest party in the opposition India alliance bloc, with a lead in 96 seats.
You can find the results as they are being declared on the Election Commission of India website here.
Comedian John Oliver took aim at Modi and the creeping authoritarianism of the BJP in his latest episode of Last Week Tonight. Among his many barbs at the prime minister was the crackdown on opposition and freedom of expression in India over the past decade, and the failure by Narendra Modi to do a press conference in ten years.
Oliver was particularly scathing of the fawning “interviews” of Modi on India’s mainstream media – now seen to be under the thumb of the government – where he was asked hard-hitting questions such as “do you have a best friend?”, “do you carry a purse?” and “how do you eat a mango?”
“Basically, if you criticise Modi, there’s a good chance that things are going to be very unpleasant for you,” said Oliver. “Meaningful criticism of Modi is scarce on TV in India.” It proved to be a prescient comment. This week, the Indian streaming site that usually broadcasts Oliver’s show did not upload this particular episode, and it was not made available on YouTube in India
Only four of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha have been declared. Three of them so far have been won by Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party. The fourth has gone to the Congress party, part of the India alliance that is opposing Modi.
Sanjay Singh, national spokesperson for Aam Aadmi party, has claimed that the exit poll figures were intended to manipulate the stock market. The Times of India quotes him saying “I have been exposing exit polls since last two-three days. Yesterday, I had said that exit poll results were released only to influence the share market, administrative system, Election Commission, it had nothing to do with the reality. What happened to all those exit polls giving over 400, 375 seats?”
Narendra Modi’s BJP-led alliance had campaigned with a slogan indicating it was targeting a victory with 400 seats in the 543 seat Lok Sabha. At present, with counting still progressing, it looks set to be on course for about 300 seats.
The India stock market has fallen sharply today, and the rupee has fallen against the US dollar. Markets had soared on Monday after exit polls indicated there would be a large Modi victory. Reuters spoke to Dipan Mehta, founder director at Elixir Equities in Mumbai, who told the news agency “The biggest disappointment for the market is the fact that BJP does not have a majority [yet]. That opens up a Pandora’s box because all the other players … are all quite volatile.”
In another surprise for the polls, the BJP has won its first seat in Kerala, a state in southern India known for being a bastion of left wing politics.
The seat was won in Thrissur by Suresh Gopi, a local film star. The win is a significant one for the BJP, giving them a first foothold in the affluent educated southern state. However, it appeared the party had done less well in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, where they won no seats in 2019, despite the BJP investing vast resources and manpower into trying to win over the state this time round.
For more details about the BJP’s attempts to win over southern India, read our election dispatch from Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where we met Suresh Gopi on the campaign trail.
One of the biggest shocks of the early results was the apparent losses faced by the Narendra Modi’s BJP party in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous and politically important state, which has 80 seats and is seen as a bellwether for the rest of the country. Early counts showed that the India alliance was ahead of the BJP’s alliance, with parties gaining more than 30 seats.
Modi set to win third term but may fall short of landslide victory
Hannah Ellis-Petersen reports for the Guardian from Delhi
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, looks set to win a third term in power but early election results indicated he had not achieved the landslide victory that many had predicted.
By early Tuesday afternoon, with half of the 640m votes counted, initial results showed that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and its political allies had won 290 seats, enough to form a majority government to rule for the next five years.
However, it was a decline from their 2019 victory, with the BJP on course to lose almost 70 seats. It was also a distinct departure from the two-thirds majority that many exit polls had predicted over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the opposition alliance, which goes by the acronym India, appeared to far outperform expectations, collectively winning 234 seats, according to the early count. The alliance, formed of more than 20 national and regional opposition parties, had come together for the first time in this election with the aim of defeating Modi, who has been in power since 2014.
Should the results remain consistent as counting continues, it could have significant implications for India’s political landscape after the polls. Since he was elected a decade ago, Modi and his Hindu nationalist BJP party have enjoyed a powerful majority, while the opposition – particularly the Congress party – have been seen as weak and unable to stand up the might of the BJP.
But the India coalition proved more resilient than many analysts had expected and was boosted by strong performances by regional parties such as the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party in Tamil Nadu.
BJP minister Anurag Thakur, who is standing again in Hamirpur in the state of Himachal Pradesh, and who has previously been accused of stoking religious tensions, has said he is confident that the BJP-led alliance will form the government.
The Times of India quotes him saying “The NDA is leading in the entire nation, and I am confident that the BJP-led NDA will form the government once the final results are out. The country needs a strong government and an honest leader.”
The fact that Narendra Modi’s BJP are under-performing exit poll expectations as votes are counted does not seem to have dampened the enthusiasm among his supporters.
The vote share counted so far is very tight, with the BJP-led alliance on 45.1% and the INDIA alliance on 41.5%, however because India uses the first-past-the-post system, that lead of 3.6 points is looking to translate to a margin of victory of about 55 seats. At the moment 22 seats are projected to be going to candidates not inside the two leading blocs.
Reporting for the BBC from New Delhi, Samira Hussain has described the early indications of the results as “somewhat surprising”. She said “We’re seeing that the BJP-led alliance is leading so far, but we see that the Congress-led Alliance – the INDIA alliance – is actually doing far better, and I think that’s reflected in the moods at both party headquarters here in New Delhi.”
Indian markets, which closed at an all-time high Monday, were down sharply in midday trading Tuesday, after early leads showed fewer seats for Narendra Modi’s governing BJP than had been expected, Associated Press reports.
The latest count shows the Modi-led alliance ahead in 298 seats, enough for a majority but short of the absolute landslide victory he was seeking.
Ahead of today’s count, the Guardian’s video team travelled through India to explore how fake news and censorship might be shaping the outcome of the election.
Appearing on television, BJP spokesperson Nalin Kohli has said it is a “fair assessment” that Narendra Modi’s alliance looks like falling short of the huge majority he had hoped for.
Reuters reports that, on the India Today TV channel, Kohli said:
It is a fair assessment to say 400 at the moment certainly looks distant. But we need to wait … to have a final picture of the seats because the exit polls speak of a massive sweep. The counting trends currently don’t seem to match that. The BJP-NDA will form the government, that trend is very clear.
While counting is still ongoing, the polls have already thrown up some surprises and cast doubts over the accuracy of the exit polls.
Early results indicate that while prime minister Narendra Modi will be returned to power, his BJP will suffer losses from 2019 and certainly not win this election with the thumping two-thirds majority that exit polls had predicted over the weekend.
Meanwhile the opposition coalition, which goes by the acronym INDIA, has appeared to far outpace projections and is currently ahead in over 220 seats, more than double what the exit polls had predicted. The largest opposition party in the INDIA coalition, Congress, had sought to discredit the exit polls, calling them fraudulent and an attempt by the BJP to rig the election.
If the trend continues, the BJP could be facing a much stronger and more animated opposition than they’ve come up against since they were elected in 2014.
Here are some of the scenes from counting centres around India. Only one seat has been declared, as it was run unopposed, and the latest count updates across Indian media give Narendra Modi’s BJP-led NDA alliance a lead in about 300 seats. The opposition alliance INDIA is ahead in about 200 seats, which is outperforming expectations. The Election Commission does not release data on the percentage of votes tallied, and counting is expected to go on through the day.
Summary
Counting began in the world’s largest elections at 8am IST on Tuesday, three and a half hours ago. Paper ballots are being counted first. The majority of votes were cast on Electronic Voting Machines, in use in Indian elections since 2000, and these will be counted next. Results are expected on Tuesday afternoon.
This election was the largest in world history, with almost a billion eligible voters and 642 million people turning out to vote, according to the Election Commission of India. Turnout was down 1% compared to 2019.
The Lok Sabha, “House of the People” or lower house, election started in mid-April and progressed over seven phases until 1 June, as a deadly heatwave gripped the country. Dozens of voters and election officials died during the process as temperatures approached 50C in some areas.
At least 33 Indian polling staff died on the last day of voting from heatstroke in just one state, Uttar Pradesh, a top election official said Sunday, after scorching temperatures gripped swathes of the country.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance has a majority in early vote counting trends, but the numbers as they stand at the moment are well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls. Only about 10%-15% of the total votes have been counted so far, according to Indian TV channels.
According to a flurry of exit polls released on Saturday night, Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) are looking at a decisive win and may even gain seats to win a two-thirds majority in parliament, which would allow the government to make far-reaching amendments to the constitution.
With all 543 seats reporting some results by 11.30 IST, the Modi-led NDA bloc lead in 290 seats, or 54%, with Modi’s party, the BJP, responsible for the vast majority of these leads.
The opposition INDIA bloc was leading in 228 seats, with the Congress party responsible for most of these votes. It is well ahead of the 181 needed to prevent the NDA from securing a two-thirds majority. But again, this is early days.
Aside from the one seat won by the BJP by default in Surat, after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out, no seats have been called for any party.
Amritpal Singh, a self-styled radical Sikh preacher who was jailed on terrorism charges last year, is contesting a seat in the state of Punjab from behind bars and early counting shows he is leading the votes in that state.
If Modi’s victory is confirmed, his BJP will have triumphed in a vitriolic campaign in which parties accused each other of religious bias and of posing a threat to sections of the population. A possible two-thirds majority in parliament could allow major changes to the constitution, rivals and critics fear.
That’s it from me, Helen Sullivan, for today. My colleagues in London will take you through the rest of the day’s results.
Updated
Amritpal Singh, a self-styled radical Sikh preacher who was jailed on terrorism charges last year, is contesting a seat in the state of Punjab from behind bars and early counting shows he is leading the votes.
Last year, Singh became a prominent figure in the separatist Khalistan movement, outlawed in India, which believes Punjab should be an independent state for Sikhs. After being implicated in incidents of violence, he went on the run from the authorities, prompting a state-wide manhunt.
Singh was eventually apprehended and remains in a high security jail. He is running in this election as an independent candidate for the Khadoor Sahib seat in Punjab.
The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty were once the giants of India’s politics – the family at the forefront of the independence battle, who built up the formidable Congress party and produced three prime ministers.
But now the family is fighting for their survival. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) government are seeking a third term in power in the elections. Most analysts and exit polls suggest a BJP victory against Congress and its allies once again seems likely.
Ten years in opposition have left Congress and the Gandhi family in decline, accused of elitism, disorganisation and weak leadership. The party presence on the ground remains lacklustre, compared with the BJP’s well-organised electoral machine and its disciplined cadre.
Analysts say that a third consecutive loss to Modi in June would deal another crippling blow to the family and could throw the future of the party as a viable political force into question.
Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, said the Congress party was akin to a “large ship which has rusted for a very long period of time”.
Verman warned that if Congress faced another major election loss, it could find itself with state, or even national, rebellions on its hands, which could further diminish and even fracture the party to devastating effect. “This election is critical for Congress,” he said.
Rahul Gandhi, the most recognisable face of the opposition Congress party, is ahead by a wide margin in both seats where he is contestesting: Raebareli in Uttar Pradesh and Wayanad in Kerala.
It’s a marked difference from 2019 when Gandhi lost the family seat in Uttar Pradesh after the BJP swept the state. But this time, early counting suggests that the BJP will not perform so well in Uttar Pradesh, which is home to a population larger than Brazil and is considered to be one of India’s most politically important states.
This was a story we did about the decline of the Gandhi dynasty and Gandhi’s battle to win Raebareli in this election:
Three hours into the count, NDA has majority with 294 of 543 seats
It is almost 11am IST, which means the vote count has been underway for just under three hours. We’re expecting results of seat gained and lost at the earliest in the early afternoon, local time.
For now, with all 543 seats reporting some results, the Modi-led NDA bloc leads in 292 of the 543 seats up for grabs, or 54%, with Modi’s party, the BJP, responsible for the vast majority of these leads.
The opposition INDIA bloc leads in 222 seats, with the Congress party responsible for most of these votes. It is well ahead of the 181 needed to prevent the NDA from securing a two-thirds majority. But again, this is early days.
Aside from the one seat won by the BJP by default in Surat, after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out, no seats have been called for any party.
Updated
Via Reuters: If Modi’s victory is confirmed, his BJP will have triumphed in a vitriolic campaign in which parties accused each other of religious bias and of posing a threat to sections of the population.
Investors have already cheered the prospects of another Modi term, expecting it to deliver further years of strong economic growth and pro-business reforms, while a possible two-thirds majority in parliament could allow major changes to the constitution, rivals and critics fear.
“The next government’s main task will be to set India on the path of getting rich before it ages,” the Times of India newspaper said in an editorial on Tuesday, referring to the young, working age population in the world’s most populous nation. “The clock’s ticking.”
Modi's alliance gains majority in early count, but falls far short of landslide
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance has a majority in early vote counting trends, but the numbers as they stand at the moment are well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls.
Only about 10%-15% of the total votes have been counted so far, according to Indian TV channels.
BJP alone accounts for nearly 250 of the seats in which the NDA is leading, compared to the 303 it won in 2019. Its bloc, the NDA, needs to win at lest 359 to gain the two thirds majority that would allow it to change the constitution. Modi has set a goal of winning 400 seats.
Trends have also showed Modi leading, then trailing and leading again in his seat in the Hindu holy city of Varanasi.
The first votes counted are postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty.
This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.
The chief minister of India’s capital New Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, surrendered to prison authorities on Sunday as the interim bail granted by the country’s top court in a corruption case ended, his party officials said.
Kejriwal, a firebrand politician who has been a vocal opponent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was arrested by the federal financial crime-fighting agency in March in connection with alleged corruption in the awarding of liquor licences.
Kejriwal has denied the allegations.
Last month the Supreme Court granted Kejriwal bail until 1 June, the last day of India‘s nationwide seven-phase vote, on condition he returned to pre-trial detention on June 2.
“I was given a 21-day (relief) by the Supreme Court. These 21 days were unforgettable,” he said before returning to jail.
“I did not waste even a minute. I campaigned to save the country,” he said.
Modi’s decade in power has seen the government accused by rights groups of growing authoritarianism and pursuing Hindutva [Hindu-first] policies that have eroded the rights and freedoms of minorities, in particular India’s 200 million Muslims.
As the BJP is expected to march on with its Hindu nationalist agenda if re-elected, political observers have pointed to the mountainous holy state of Uttarakhand as a window on what a Modi third term could mean for India’s fragile secular democracy.
For centuries, Uttarakhand has been known as the “land of the gods’’. Stretching high up into the Himalayas, the state is home to tens of thousands of Hindu temples and some of the holiest Hindu pilgrimage sites. It is also here that the BJP government has accused of weaponising Uttarakhand’s sacred status for politics, making the state a “laboratory” for some of the most extreme rightwing policies and rhetoric targeting the Muslim minority.
When will we know the final results?
If you’re just tuning in: Counting began just over two hours ago, at 8:00 am (02.30 GMT), in key centres in each state, with the data fed into computers.
Votes were cast on electronic voting machines, so the tally will likely be rapid, with results expected within hours.
“People should know about the strength of Indian democracy”, chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar said Monday, vowing there was a “robust counting process in place”.
India’s largest ever election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, with voters casting their ballots in megacities New Delhi and Mumbai, as well as in sparsely populated forest areas and in the high-altitude territory of Kashmir, AFP reports.
India’s major TV networks have reporters outside each counting centre, competing to flash results for each of the 543 elected seats in the lower house of parliament.
In past years, key trends have been clear by mid-afternoon with losers conceding defeat, even though full and final results may only come late on Tuesday night.
Celebrations are expected at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP if the results reflect exit poll predictions. The winning post is a simple majority of 272 seats, and the BJP won 303 at the last polls in 2019.
India's election by the numbers
Nearly 970 million people, more than 10% of the world’s population, were eligible to vote. India, with a population of 1.428 billion, is the world’s most populous country after overtaking China last year.
Turnout averaged 66% across the seven phases, according to official data, which means 642 million people voted: the most in any election in history worldwide. It was a 1% lower turnout than the 2019 elections.
543: the number of seats up for grab in the Lok Sabha or lower house.
272: the number of seats needed for a simple majority.
400 seats: that is the number of seats the Modi-led NDA alliance is hoping to win – almost 75%, well above the two-thirds majority that would allow the NDA to make changes to India’s constitution.
181: the number of seats the opposition INDIA alliance needs to win to prevent a two-thirds majority.
Modi is now back in the lead in his seat of Varanasi, according to India’s electoral commission. The NDA bloc is currently leading in 304 seats to the INDIA bloc’s 207 (which, for the moment, means the NDA does not have the two-thirds majority it so desperately wants).
Why would a third term for Modi be historic?
According to a flurry of exit polls released on Saturday night, Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) are looking at a decisive win and may even gain seats to win a two-thirds majority in parliament, which would allow the government to make far-reaching amendments to the constitution.
It would be a historic achievement for Modi, India’s strongman prime minister, whose Hindu nationalist politics have significantly re-shaped India’s secular democracy over the past decade.
No prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first post-independence premier, has won three consecutive terms.
The Facebook and Instagram owner Meta approved a series of AI-manipulated political adverts during India’s election that spread disinformation and incited religious violence, according to a report shared exclusively with the Guardian in May.
Facebook approved adverts containing known slurs towards Muslims in India, such as “let’s burn this vermin” and “Hindu blood is spilling, these invaders must be burned”, as well as Hindu supremacist language and disinformation about political leaders.
Another approved advert called for the execution of an opposition leader they falsely claimed wanted to “erase Hindus from India”, next to a picture of a Pakistan flag.
The adverts were created and submitted to Meta’s ad library – the database of all adverts on Facebook and Instagram – by India Civil Watch International (ICWI) and Ekō, a corporate accountability organisation, to test Meta’s mechanisms for detecting and blocking political content that could prove inflammatory or harmful during India’s six-week election.
According to the report, all of the adverts “were created based upon real hate speech and disinformation prevalent in India, underscoring the capacity of social media platforms to amplify existing harmful narratives”.
The adverts were submitted midway through voting:
Just to recap: only one seat has been won so far, and it was won by the BJP by default:
Before counting even began the BJP had won one seat, in the constituency of Surat, where Mukesh Dalal, from the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), won the seat by default after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out of the race. It was the first time in 73 years that Surat’s candidate was appointed, not elected.
Guardian correspondent Hannah Ellis-Petersen reported at the time: Surat is not the only constituency in Gujarat to witness swathes of candidates going up against the BJP suddenly withdrawing from the race. In Gandhinagar, where Amit Shah, the home minister and prime minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man, is running, 16 opposition candidates dropped out before last Tuesday’s voting.
Meanwhile Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be trailing in his own seat of Varanasi, according to India’s Electoral Commission.
The NDA bloc, meanwhile, is leading in 297 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s 208 seats.
Can Modi finally win over southern states?
In this election, the BJP focused much of its campaign machinery - backed by vast financial resources - on winning seats in south India, particularly the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Making a breakthrough into India’s southern states, among the richest and most well-educated in the country, is crucial to Narendra Modi’s ambitions to gain an even larger parliamentary majority in this election and extend the reach of the BJP to every corner of the country. However, it will be no easy feat for his party.
Unlike across north India, where the BJP’s dominance is now largely assured, southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala have continued to push back against Modi and the Hindu nationalist narrative of his party. The BJP has never won a seat in Kerala, and it won no seats in Tamil Nadu in the last election, in 2019.
The state’s chief ministers have also emerged as some of Modi’s fiercest critics and accused the BJP of depriving them of tax income and investment to punish and undermine their governments.
But this time round, analysts predicted the BJP could make “significant inroads” in these states, “perhaps even winning a fair number of seats in Tamil Nadu”. “That would be a huge breakthrough for the BJP and could re-shape India’s electoral map in ways nobody thought possible five years ago,” said one analyst.
Exit polls suggest that the BJP’s strategy may have paid off, with the party projected to win its largest ever number of seats in these states:
Updated
How does the BJP plan on delivering its 'guarantee' of making India the world's third-largest economy?
The BJP manifesto “guarantees” India will become the third-largest economy in the world, from fifth-largest. The party promises, (if it wins, which it is likely to) to maintain high growth and low inflation while keeping budget deficit under control, Reuters reports.
It also talks about boosting manufacturing and employment opportunities. But a new Modi government is likely to implement labour laws that make it easier for companies to hire and fire employees.
The government has failed to create enough jobs during the last 10 years of power, which has led to sporadic protests from job seekers. According to private think-tank CMIE, the unemployment rate in India rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March 2024.
Modi also has not laid out firm plans to control high food prices, a key plank for the opposition during the campaign.
While Modi is predicted to win a large majority, the election campaign has also raised uncomfortable issues for the prime minister, particularly relating to sky high unemployment, particularly for young people, and inequality which has soared to unprecedented levels over the past decade.
We reported from the state of Maharashtra on whether India’s economic story over the past decade is as golden as Modi claims it is:
What has the BJP promised voters?
The BJP’s manifesto promises a national code that will replace religion-specific civil laws in the country, a move many Muslims say is aimed at curbing centuries-old religious practices that the minority follows. Currently, Indians from different religions can follow laws specific to their faith or opt for a secular code. Laws on who and how many people a person can marry, how to end a marriage, and inheritance differ by religion. The new code will spell out the same set of rules for everyone.
After Modi inaugurated a temple to the Hindu God Ram at a fiercely contested site earlier this year, fulfilling a long-held promise, party leaders have said another emphatic electoral victory would help them build temples on other disputed sites. Hindu groups have for long claimed that for centuries Muslim invaders built mosques over demolished Hindu temples. Courts are hearing cases against two such mosques in BJP-run Uttar Pradesh state: in Modi’s Varanasi constituency and in Mathura.
Modi’s party has promised to implement an official report recommending elections to India‘s 28 state assemblies and national parliament at the same time, every five years. Currently, state elections do not need to coincide with national elections, leading to a situation where the country hosts one election or another every few months.
Modi’s party also promises to maintain peace in the nation’s northeast, without mentioning the BJP-run and violence-torn state of Manipur where ethnic clashes have killed at least 220 people and displaced thousands. Many state residents say there is widespread disappointment over the inability of Modi’s government to end what critics have called a mixture of anarchy and civil war. Rahul Gandhi, Modi’s key rival from the Congress party, has repeatedly questioned Modi’s failure to visit the state despite the prolonged conflict.
Who is Narendra Modi?
There is little doubt among Indians that Narendra Damodardas Modi’s 10 years in power have already left an indelible mark on the country. To some it is the optimistic story of India rising to become the world’s fastest-growing economy, courted by powerful western leaders and multinational corporations; of efficient governance and technological advancements that have benefitted the public; and of the country freeing itself from the politics of elites and the “chains of colonisers” while reclaiming its historic Hindu civilisational greatness.
Yet to others it is a story of democratic backsliding and growing authoritarianism; of crony capitalism and a growing chasm between rich and poor; of the erosion of freedom of the media and judicial independence; attacks on secularism, liberal institutions and civil society; of publicly condoned Islamophobia and growing state-sponsored persecution of minorities, primarily India’s 200 million Muslims.
Such is the power of “brand Modi” that the BJP sits firmly in the shadow of its strongman leader. Modi’s face and name are attached to almost every government welfare scheme, and are visible on every government poster and even on people’s food rations and Covid vaccination certificates. The prime minister primarily refers to himself in the third person in speeches and will often address the people as “Modi ka parivar” [Modi’s family]. The party’s election manifesto was simply named “Modi’s guarantee”.
According to Modi’s biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, even as a child Modi displayed traits that would later define his political career. Recalling a conversation with one of Modi’s teachers from his time at school, Mukhopadhyay said: “Modi liked theatre a lot in school, but would only do leading roles. If he did not have the main role, he would not perform in that play. It’s a small glimpse into how he has always put himself at the centre of his own universe.”
Modi was born in 1950 in a small town in northern Gujarat, as the third of six children, to a poor, lower caste family. Growing up, their house did not have electricity and his father produced cooking oil and ran a small tea shop next to the local railway station.
It was as an eight-year-old child that Modi first wandered into the offices of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the rightwing Hindu paramilitary organisation that has worked for almost a century to push India towards becoming a Hindu state.
To this day, over six decades on, RSS ideology remains the foundation of Modi’s political beliefs and his agenda as prime minister. Under his two terms, militant Hindu nationalism has become the dominant political ideology in India, while core RSS policies have been brought to fruition and RSS figures are present in almost all main institutions.
Critics of Modi and the BJP say his government has become increasingly authoritarian, fracturing the country along religious lines and threatening India’s secular democracy. At the same time, the space for freedom of speech has been shrinking while disinformation and hate speech has exploded on social media.
The Guardian’s video team travelled through India to explore how fake news and censorship might be shaping the outcome of the election:
An hour into the count: BJP-led bloc leading in 272 seats
Just under an hour into the count the bloc led by Modi’s BJP is leading in 272 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s 178 seats.
Modi has set a target for the NDA bloc, led by the BJP, of winning 400 of the 543 seats, well over the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution.
While it is unlikely that the opposition INDIA bloc will win a majority, it will be hoping to win at least 181 seats to prevent a two-thirds majority for the NDA.
Updated
Heatstroke killed 33 Indian polling staff on last voting day: state election chief
At least 33 Indian polling staff died on the last day of voting from heatstroke in just one state, a top election official said Sunday, after scorching temperatures gripped swathes of the country.
While there have been reports of multiple deaths from the intense heatwave – with temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in many places – the dozens of staff dying in one day marks an especially grim toll.
The India Meteorological Department said temperatures at Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh reached 46.9C (116F).
Navdeep Rinwa, chief electoral officer for the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where voting in the seventh and final stage of elections ended Saturday, said 33 polling personnel died due to the heat.
The figure included security guards and sanitation staff.
“A monetary compensation of 1.5 million rupees ($18,000) will be provided to the families of the deceased,” Rinwa told reporters.
False information was detected across the political spectrum but the leader of the opposition Congress party, Rahul Gandhi, was one of the leading targets, AFP reports.
His statements, videos and photographs were shared on social media, but often incompletely or out of context.
Here are some examples, all widely shared by BJP supporters, according to AFP:
One digitally altered video analysed by AFP used Gandhi’s real boast that the opposition alliance would triumph, but flipped it to say Modi would win a third term when the result is declared on Tuesday.
Others purported to show Gandhi falsely appealing to people to vote for Modi.
Among the more egregious examples were those falsely linking him to India’s rival neighbours, Pakistan and China. Those included a photograph that claimed Gandhi was waving the “Chinese constitution” during an election rally. It was in fact that of India.
Other posts portrayed Gandhi, a Hindu, as being against India’s majority religion, capitalising on Modi’s efforts to cast himself as the country’s most staunch defender of the faith.
One video of a ruined Hindu temple, a real image from Pakistan, was widely shared. However, the post falsely claimed it was from Gandhi’s constituency and that he was responsible for its destruction.
Another manipulated video falsely showed him refusing to accept a statue of a Hindu god.
Another claimed he was paying young people to support him on social media, when in reality he was talking about youth unemployment.
'Unprecedented' levels of disinformation
India’s six-week election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, but also in the “unprecedented” scale of online disinformation, APF reports.
The biggest democratic exercise in history brought with it a surge of false social media posts and instant messaging, ranging from doctored videos to unrelated images with false captions.
Raqib Hameed Naik, from the US-based India Hate Lab, said they had “witnessed an unprecedented scale of disinformation” in the elections.
“Conspiracy theories... were vigorously promoted to deepen the communal divide,” said Naik, whose organisation researches hate speech and disinformation.
With seven stages of voting stretched over six weeks, AFP factcheckers carried out 40 election-related debunks across India’s political divide.
There were fake videos of Bollywood stars endorsing the opposition, as well as those purporting to show one person casting multiple votes. Some were crude or poked fun. Others were far more sinister and sophisticated productions aimed to deliberately mislead.
Modi's BJP-led alliance has early lead
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance, the NDA bloc, is enjoying an early lead as votes are counted, pulling ahead in 154 seats of the total 543 in the lower house of parliament.
Early trends show the opposition INDIA alliance leading in 120 seats.
The first votes counted are postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty.
This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.
Updated
What will a two-thirds majority mean for India's future?
According to some exit polls, Modi and the BJP could be headed for a two-thirds majority in parliament, giving them an even stronger victory than in the 2019 elections.
Should the BJP achieve such a historic win, it could have far-reaching consequences for India’s future. The greatest fear among many is that this would enable the BJP to have the votes to amend India’s constitution, which currently enshrines India as a secular democracy where all religions are regarded as equal.
But during his decade in power, Modi and the BJP have pursued a Hindu nationalist agenda, an ideological project which believes India should be a Hindu state. Opponents say that the ultimate aim of the BJP would be to remove references to secularism from the constitution document, reshaping India - particularly for its minorities - forever. Modi has denied he plans to change the constitution but during the campaign several BJP candidates spoke of the need to get a two-thirds majority in order to protect India as a nation for Hindus.
Updated
World record number of voters, but turnout down from 2019
“We have created a world record of 642 million proud Indian voters. This is a historic moment,” Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar told reporters on Monday.
Although the 2024 turnout is higher than the 612 million voters who cast their ballots in 2019, it is about one percentage point lower than the 67.4% turnoutin 2019.
Analysts have partly blamed the lower turnout on a searing heatwave across northern India with temperatures in excess of 45C (113F).
At least 33 polling staff died from heatstroke on Saturday in Uttar Pradesh state alone, where temperatures hit 46.9C (116.4F).
Polling should have been scheduled to end a month earlier, Kumar acknowledged. “We should not have done it in so much heat”, he said.
Just under 20 minutes into the count, and only postal votes counted so far, the NDA bloc leads in 45 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s 31, out of 543 total seats.
Updated
BJP has won one seat – by default
Before counting even began the BJP had won one seat, in the constituency of Surat, where Mukesh Dalal, from the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), won the seat by default after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out of the race. It was the first time in 73 years that Surat’s candidate was appointed, not elected.
Guardian correspondent Hannah Ellis-Petersen reported at the time: Surat is not the only constituency in Gujarat to witness swathes of candidates going up against the BJP suddenly withdrawing from the race. In Gandhinagar, where Amit Shah, the home minister and prime minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man, is running, 16 opposition candidates dropped out before last Tuesday’s voting.
Updated
Modi-led NDA bloc leads in 16 seats, INDIA bloc leads in six
With counting underway for just 10 minutes, the NDA bloc, led by Modi and his BJP, is leading in 11 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s four seats.
Updated
How are votes verified?
Along with the electronic record of each vote cast through the Electronic Voting Machines, a corresponding paper slip is also produced, which is visible to the voter, and then stored in a sealed box.
The poll watchdog, the Electoral Commission of India (ECI), counts and verifies these paper slips against electronic votes at five randomly selected polling stations – drawn by lots – in different segments of each constituency.
While critics and some members of civil society, including some political parties, want verification to be done at more booths to increase transparency, the Supreme Court has declined to order any change in the vote-counting process.
The ECI has dismissed allegations that EVMs can be tampered, calling them foolproof.
Vote counting begins – when will we know the results?
Vote counting is now underway at counting stations in India’s 543 constituencies. Paper ballots, cast by those who cannot vote electronically, will be counted first. Then electronic votes will be counted. These are cast on electronic voting machines, which have been used since 2,000.
Results are announced for each constituency as soon as counting is completed. India follows the first-past-the-post system, under which a candidate with the highest number of votes wins, regardless of garnering a majority or not.
Result trends generally become clear by the afternoon of counting day and are flashed on television news networks. The official count from the Election Commission of India can come hours later.
In past years, key trends have been clear by mid-afternoon with losers conceding defeat, even though full and final results may only come late on Tuesday night.
Celebrations are expected at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP if the results reflect exit poll predictions.
The winners of the general election are expected to form a new government by the middle of June.
After the ECI announces the results for all 543 seats, the president invites the leader of the party, or an alliance, which has more than half the seats to form the government.
The party or coalition with 272 or more seats then chooses a prime minister to lead the government.
How does vote counting work in the world's biggest election?
Vote counting in India is decentralised and done simultaneously at counting stations in each of the 543 constituencies around the country.
Counting is set to begin at 8 am (02.30 GMT) with the tallying of postal ballots that only select groups can use, including people with disabilities, or those involved in essential services including security forces and some government officials.
After paper ballots, votes from the Electronic Voting Machines are counted. India has used the machines since 2000, moving away from paper ballots for national and state elections.
Updated
Opening summary
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of India’s election results with me, Helen Sullivan.
This election was the largest in world history, with almost a billion eligible voters and 642 million people turning out to vote, according to the Election Commission of India.
The Lok Sabha, “House of the People” or lower house, election started in mid-April and progressed over seven phases until 1 June, as a deadly heatwave gripped the country. Dozens of voters and election officials died during the process as temperatures approached 50C in some areas.
Most voters used electronic voting machines, which means results will be declared today. Exit polls predict the election will be easily won by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his ruling Bharatiya Janata party-led alliance.
But Modi will be eyeing a two-thirds majority, which would have significant implications for India’s 1.4 billion citizens. The opposition INDIA bloc needs to win more than 180 of the 543 seats to prevent the two-thirds majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.
Vote counting is about to start, around 8am IST (in roughly 15 minutes’ time). We’ll have more detail shortly on how the process works.
Here is what we know so far:
According to exit polls released on Saturday night, Modi and the BJP are looking at a decisive win and may even gain enough seats to win a two-thirds majority in parliament, which would allow the government to make far-reaching amendments to the constitution.
Voting in the seventh and final staggered round of the six-week poll ended on Saturday, held in brutally hot conditions across swaths of the country. At least 33 polling staff died from heatstroke in Uttar Pradesh state alone on Saturday, where temperatures hit 46.9C (116.4F), election officials said.
A top opponent of Narendra Modi vowed on Sunday to keep fighting “dictatorship” before he returned to jail, following elections widely expected to produce another landslide victory for the Hindu-nationalist leader. Arvind Kejriwal is among several opposition leaders under criminal investigation, with colleagues describing his arrest the month before the general elections began in April as a “political conspiracy” orchestrated by Modi’s BJP.
Modi’s political opponents and international rights groups have long sounded the alarm about threats to India’s democracy. US thinktank Freedom House said this year the BJP had “increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents”.
Modi’s party won the regional vote in Arunachal Pradesh, a state bordering China, while a local party swept to power in Sikkim, a Himalayan state, officials and politicians said on Sunday. Provincial elections in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim were held on 19 April simultaneously with the first phase of the national polls.
The BJP comfortably retained power in Arunchal Pradesh by winning 46 of the 60 seats.
