India’s oil refiners are expected to weather disruption in supply after the US allowed its waiver on Russian crude purchases to expire, thanks to weaker demand and available barrels from the US and the Middle East.
China’s virtual absence from the market has been key to preserving spot supply, according to traders familiar with the matter. India’s own demand is also cooler, as a result of maintenance that has cut back overall purchases from private refiners.
All the while, there are offers of prompt-loading crude coming from the US, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iraq, the traders said — though total Middle East flows remain a fraction of what they were before the war began. They asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak to the media.
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Discounted Russian oil barrels have been a mainstay for the world’s third-largest crude importer since 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine triggered a raft of sanctions and cut off the producer’s traditional markets. After a brief pullback last year, under pressure from Washington, Indian processors have again been enthusiastically snapping up Moscow shipments.
In May, flows are expected to come in at close to 1.9 million barrels a day, according to Kpler data, close to peak levels — though that still includes a period under the US permit that was allowed to expire over the weekend, despite entreaties from Indian officials and a Brent price that is now more than 50% above pre-war levels.
Maintenance at Reliance Industries Ltd. and Nayara Energy Ltd. has helped to push up the volumes of Russian crude in floating storage — now at more than 7 million barrels globally, up fivefold from a month ago, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
For Indian refiners, that means more options, at least for the short term — not least given the end of the US waiver for Russian purchases is not likely to mean a sharp drop in flows to India.
“There are limited alternatives available at similar scale and pricing, particularly in a market still dealing with geopolitical uncertainty and uneven Middle Eastern flows,” said Sumit Ritolia, modelling and refining manager at Kpler Ltd. “India is unlikely to move away from Russian crude in the near term.”
Indian refiners also anticipate that another US extension to the waiver is possible, even after the expiry, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the issue is sensitive. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in April the US would not renew the waiver, before ultimately issuing a fresh permit days later.
India has about 60 days worth of crude oil and liquefied natural gas reserves, alongside 45 days of liquefied petroleum gas stockpiles, the country’s oil minister Hardeep Puri has said.
“We have not had any difficulty in getting the crudes which we want,” Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Chairman Vikas Kaushal told analysts last week. “Of course, I would wish they were coming to me $30 cheaper than what they are coming in at, but that’s a different aspect.”
HPCL purchased crude from Russia, as well as Africa, the US and Venezuela, he added.
