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The Economic Times
The Economic Times

India bonds snap four-day rally on US-Iran war risks

Indian government bonds fell on Wednesday, ​ending a four-day rally, ​as fears of escalation in the Middle East war sent oil ​prices higher, while some traders booked profits.

The yield on the benchmark 6.94% 2036 note settled at 6.9431%, up from 6.9163% on Tuesday. It had eased around 10 basis points in the ‌previous four ⁠sessions.

U.S. President ⁠Donald Trump said on Wednesday Iran had taken too long to negotiate a deal and ​would now "have to pay the price."

Tehran said it would reassess diplomatic engagement with Washington after tit-for-tat ​strikes overnight.

Oil prices rose 1% in Asian trade to $92.61 per barrel, keeping investors wary of inflation risks for India, which imports most of its crude oil.

The ​conflict has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz, ⁠a key global ‌oil conduit, pushing up energy prices and straining India's external ​balances.

India unveiled ​a wide-ranging set of measures to draw in overseas capital ⁠last week to shore up the currency and the country's ​external balances, both of which have been strained by higher ​oil prices.

Foreign inflows have picked up since the measures were introduced, with more than $1 billion worth of government debt bought by foreign investors in just three sessions. Leading up to the announcement of the measures on Friday, foreign investors had bought only a net $1.6 billion since the start of the year.

"Inflation ‌risks linked to energy prices, geopolitical developments and weather-related uncertainties could keep policy tight if pressures persist," said Ashwin Patni, head of ​wealth management solutions ​at Julius Baer ⁠India.

"This may keep foreign investors cautious in the short term despite the supportive policy measures."

Traders also await May U.S. inflation data due later in the day, with ​futures fully pricing in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

RATES

India's overnight index swap rates rose on some reversal in receive positions and war risks.

The one-year swap ended 8.5 bps higher at 6.0775%, while the two-year rate rose 5 bps to 6.2325%. The five-year rate settled at 6.48%, up 5 bps.

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