For three decades, economic development followed a relatively predictable script: integrate into globalisation, industrialise through exports, attract foreign capital and move steadily up the value chain. That script is now breaking down. The age of frictionless globalisation is ending, and with it the developmental assumptions that shaped much of the late 20th century.
The dominant developmental models of the late 20th century emerged under highly specific historical conditions. The US rose during an era of industrial expansion, abundant natural resources, and geopolitical primacy. China industrialised during the peak decades of hyper-globalisation, when Western capital, technology, and markets were widely accessible. The Gulf monarchies modernised through hydrocarbon wealth accumulated during a prolonged period of expanding global energy demand.
