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The Economic Times
The Economic Times

India 10-year bond logs best close in 7 weeks as oil prices ease

India's 10-year government bond closed at ​its highest in seven weeks ​on Tuesday, as a decline in crude oil prices enhanced ​the appeal of Indian debt, building on positive momentum from Friday's central bank measures aimed at boosting foreign inflows to the country.

The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield fell 4.5 basis points to ‌6.9082%, its ⁠lowest level ⁠since April 21, extending its decline into a fourth straight session. Bond yields and prices move ​inversely.

Oil prices eased after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks following an appeal ​from U.S. President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures were last down 1.93% at $92.41 a barrel in Asian trade.

Still, some traders worried the positives would support sentiment only in ​the "short-term", unless India mitigates the rising costs from the ⁠U.S.-Israeli war ‌with Iran war.

India imports about 90% of its oil, ​leaving its ​economy highly exposed to the war, including the effective blockade ⁠of the Strait of Hormuz.

Steps taken by the Reserve Bank ​of India last week to encourage dollar inflows and make ​it easier to invest in Indian bonds have seen foreign investors ramp up purchases of the country's debt by a net $800 million over the past two days.

The central bank expects inflation to average 5.1% in the year to March 2027, up from 3.48% in April, while growth is seen slowing to 6.6% ‌from 7.7% last year.

On the fiscal front, the government has set a fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP for this ​financial year, but ​a Reuters poll sees ⁠it widening to 4.7%.

The Reserve Bank of India's measures are creating some confidence, but rising U.S. yields and money going into U.S. equities along with the persistent war ​risks are still overwhelming for the market, said Alok Singh, head of treasury at CSB Bank.

RATES

India's overnight index swap rates eased as lower oil boosted sentiment.

The one-year swap ended at 5.99%, down 5.5 bps, while the two-year rate dropped 8.25 bps to 6.17%. The five-year rate fell 11 bps to 6.43%.

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