The 2024 election cycle took an unexpected turn this week with the revelation that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had once been afflicted by a brain-invading worm. Kennedy, who claims to have fully recovered from the incident, boldly stated that he could withstand '5 more brain worms' and still outperform former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in a debate.
Despite the sensational nature of these claims, Kennedy's candidacy is gaining traction, surpassing polling numbers of any independent candidate since Ross Perot in 1996. While some of his supporters remain uncertain about his platform, Kennedy's popularity is on the rise, potentially securing him a spot in the fall debates against major party nominees.
A recent poll indicated a challenging scenario for Biden, showing him trailing Trump by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup. Trump's lead extended to 9 points when Kennedy, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West were included in the survey. Notably, Kennedy garnered 16% support in this poll, a level of backing unmatched by past third-party candidates.
For a candidate to qualify for the fall debates, they must achieve a 15% polling threshold and appear on state ballots totaling at least 270 electoral votes. Kennedy's current polling average hovers around 13%, indicating a strong possibility of meeting the debate criteria.
While third-party candidates typically experience declining poll numbers as the campaign progresses, Kennedy's unique position in a polarized political landscape may defy this trend. Despite his relative obscurity, Kennedy boasts a net rating of -3, outperforming both Trump and Biden in favorability.
However, Kennedy's platform, particularly his controversial views on vaccines and Covid-19, remains a point of contention. A significant portion of voters, including potential supporters, are unaware of his stances on these critical issues, leaving him vulnerable to opposition attacks.
As Trump and his allies intensify their criticism of Kennedy, national polling suggests that Kennedy voters lean towards Trump over Biden. This dynamic underscores the potential impact of Kennedy's candidacy on the final election outcome, emphasizing the need for both major party candidates to address his growing influence.
As the 2024 election unfolds, Kennedy's candidacy presents a compelling alternative for many Americans, signaling a potential shift in the political landscape. Whether Kennedy can sustain his momentum and navigate the challenges ahead remains to be seen.
